The easiest thing in the world to do is to view everything with the benefit of hindsight. So, let’s view the offseason with some hindsight. Maybe the Mets should have tried harder to get J.T. Realmuto. Maybe they shouldn’t have been so eager to sign Francisco Lindor before he played a game for them. Maybe trading for Javier Baez instead of Kris Bryant wasn’t the greatest idea ever. But the one thing we can say for complete certainty is that they shouldn’t have traded Steven Matz for, as Metsense put it, three scratch off tickets.
Metsense made that comment on the article about the Matz trade. The article was mostly about economics, how getting rid of Matz’ $5 million salary would make it easier to add a big contract like Trevor Bauer. The comments were mostly about how while it would have been great if things worked out for Matz here, given the hometown angle and his debut – but that it was pretty much time for him to go. Gus compared him to a wet cigarette.
Matz was essentially league average in 2018 and 2019 before being terrible in 2020. Then the Mets went out and acquired someone with virtually the same exact profile when they got Joey Lucchesi. The brain trust obviously thought that Lucchesi offered more upside than Matz, so they traded Matz for what they could get, which was Yennsy Diaz, Sean Reid-Foley and Josh Winckowski.
It seemed like Winckowski might have had the most upside of the three but he was quickly dealt along with a PTBNL for Khalil Lee. The prospect hounds liked the Lee deal immediately, as he gave the system something it didn’t have – a legitimate outfield prospect on the cusp of the majors. Unfortunately, Lee looked overmatched in Spring Training and didn’t fare much better in his brief time in Queens. He is, however, tearing it up at Syracuse, posting a .917 OPS in Triple-A. Maybe it’s too soon to write him off. Or maybe he’s a tools guy who will never produce in the majors.
Reid-Foley started off great with the Mets, as he pitched multiple innings out of the pen effectively. But as good as his first six appearances were, his next six were even worse, as he allowed 12 R, 9 ER, in 7 IP before hitting the IL. And the bad performances actually happened before the last six games for him. Reid-Foley had five scoreless innings in his first two games with the Mets. In his next 10 games, he had a 6.89 ERA, a 1.851 WHIP and batters had an .864 OPS against him. And that’s with a 3-inning scoreless appearance included.
Diaz throws hard and looks like he could be useful as the last guy in your nine-man bullpen. How’s that for damning with faint praise? In last night’s game, Keith Hernandez praised him for his ability to throw strikes. Diaz has a 3.5 BB/9. That’s not awful but it’s not something to dream upon, either. Diaz has a 4.54 FIP and a 1.3 HR/9. For a comparison, Jeurys Familia has a 4.21 FIP and a 1.3 HR/9.
The production the Mets have received this year from the three guys they essentially got for Matz is a combined (-0.2) fWAR.
Matz currently sits with a 1.6 fWAR but what he’s done would have been so much more valuable for the Mets. He’s taken the ball every five days and avoided the first and second inning departures that plagued him last year. Since the All-Star break, Matz has a 2.92 ERA and has allowed just 1 HR in 24.2 IP. Overall, he has a 4.28 ERA, which translates to a 104 ERA+. He’s essentially back to what he was in ’18-’19 – a league average pitcher. He’s actually been better than what he was those two years, as his ERA+ was in the mid-90s both of those seasons.
Having Matz on the team likely would have meant no Jerad Eickhoff and his 9.00 ERA in four games as a starter. It would have meant fewer games with an opener, or bullpen game that ended up taxing the pen. He would have given the Mets a chance to win on the days he started, which doesn’t sound like much but is what this team has sorely needed most of the year.
Now, perhaps Lucchesi would have given the club the same thing if he hadn’t gotten hurt. Maybe even better than that. But we’re talking about hindsight here and Matz has been healthy while Lucchesi hasn’t. It’s hard to comprehend but we’re legitimately facing a situation where having Matz on the team this year might be the difference in making the playoffs or staying home.
And who would’ve thought that?
Forget Matz…we should be lamenting. Chris Flexen and his 109 ERA+ is who we should be missing!
As a whole these kinds of comparisons are futile. Matz plays for another team, with different players, in a different league. Maybe he’s new enough that he has the opposition fooled still. His Mets record started hot and cratered.
Well, Flexen was no longer on the team.
No one “fools” a team anymore, especially someone with enough MLB video on him to fill a vault like Matz has. And even if somehow that was possible, it doesn’t explain how Matz is pitching better after the AS break than he was immediately before. In the 5 before the break, Matz had a 5.82 ERA. The 5 after his ERA is 2.92
And he faced BAL, SEA and CLV before the break so it’s not like it was a huge difference in opposition quality.
Matz sucked as a Met. He has a slightly above average season, positive ground which he hadn’t posted since 2016. He moved on to a different life and either got better or he is being coached better or he needed a change of scenery. It happens. Would those number been useful? Sure. If we could change the hands of time I’d make it so deGroms elbow didn’t hurt, and we did offer a contract to Wheeler, whose numbers as A Phillie are unlike anything he produced in NY, especially across a full 162 game season. Maybe we should have held on to Travis darnaud too.
The 2021 version of Matz probably would be the difference of making the playoffs or going home. Who thought that Carrasco would not pitch until August, Syndergaard not yet pitch this season, Peterson and Lucchesi lost for the season in June and Yamamoto lost for the season in May? At the beginning of the season, all of them were better that the 2020 version of Matz. If Carrasco, Peterson and Lucchesi were healthy all season then they would have produced a similar ERA (4.21) that Matz is producing and they would have the difference. Matz is a free agent in 2022. Reid-Foley is a free agent in 2027, Diaz in 2026 and Lee 2028. It was a trade that still has the lifetime potential of exceeding the WAR that Matz will pruduce in 2021. I think there was a good thought process with the trade. Carrasco, deGrom, Walker, Stroman and Peterson were the starting rotation with Syndergaard pitching at the all star break. Lucchesi and Yamamoto were depth and 2020 Matz was a project. I think it was a good trade.
I have no hindsight or regrets regarding this deal at all. I liked Matz, still do, and his bounce back in Toronto, while not expected, is not a surprise either. He is the classic change of scenery guy, and my understanding is that even he admitted a new team and place was best for him.
Now, watching Justin Turner rake for the Dodgers into his mid to late thirties, while the Mets sink like a stone due to a league bottom offense, while the Braves kick sand in our faces again, well, that stinks.
We are lucky that we are a .500 club. Offense is representative of a last place team. I would still like to see us make the playoffs, but I am very interested in seeing what will happen this offseason to see what is done to build the 22 roster.
Just hope Jake can get his inflammation under control.
Matz needed a change of location as did Flexen. Perhaps it’s our pitching coach or playing in NYC that intimidated them both. Maybe they now play for teams that score runs so a 4 plus era can be disregarded. As far as prospects Lee has turned a corner at Syracuse with his bat and we already know he would be our best fielding OF. Our long run at the top of the division gave us delusions of grandeur but getting swept by the Dodgers when two of those games could have been won, shows that we are far from ready. Any smart fan would know that versus the many young, inexperienced and impatient fans who post crap on Facebook calling for everyone from the manager, GM and batboy/girl to get fired. Not ready to give up on this year but only because our division is winnable. Would not see us winning a playoff game unless Jake was back and that looks more doubtful each week. By 9/1 we might just be fantasizing over potential off season blockbuster trades.
Very very happy Matz is gone. Wish the same for Familia. It’s not that they are that worse than their contemporaries, but I am convinced the will always break our hearts… just not in the cards for success in high-leverage situations. Neither Matz nor Familia can ever complain that they did not have chances to prove themselves.
I fear that Trevor May might be in a similar boat.
But honestly, I am ready to part with many players that some fans would deem essential: JD, Dom, NcNeil, Conforto. Of the four, I’d keep Dom, though his power outage is concerning. JD at 3B is like having no one paying there.
McNeil has to learn to hit again… defense not good enough to play every day unless he hits like he used to hit… stop hitting fly balls to medium OF… just is not a power hitter. Conforto is making a move, and saving the season for the team might get him some reprieve, but God he’s been awful. ML stars need to be consistent, and Conforto is anything but… very streaky and too prone to get injured. Pass.