Every Spring the Mets faithful cannot wait to roll out predictions of 90 or more wins, buoyed by a battery of predictions from a string of prognosticators bullish on the team. The enthusiasm runs right into opening day, where the Mets have the most admirable record in the game. At the top of this sits a group of players people are annually high on, and maybe even spurred on by a special off-season acquisition or two. But reality ultimately sets in some time by mid-season when the summer doldrums commonly sink the team from post-season play. Today marks the start of the 2022 season, and a start of a string of articles from Mets360 writers about how each would address next year.
Without question, were I the owner, the first move should be the removal of Sandy Alderson as a decision-maker for any aspect of baseball operations. Alderson has been the architect of 9 opening-day Mets squads (2011-2018, 2021). It is easy to point to Alderson taking over the team during the meltdown of the Wilpon-Katz ownership group because of Bernard Madoff ponzi scandal as a reason for bad team, but the downturn of payroll is hardly the story of his tenure at the helm.
In 9 seasons as main decision-maker, Alderson’s Mets have had opening day payrolls below the MLB median only three times (2013-2015). Sure it’s New York, and we all want no limit to payroll, but 67 % of the time Alderson has had above the 50th percentile for payroll. For that, the average record during these dark times is 78-84. During this time, the Mets finished > .500 only twice. One might point to the 2015 NL Championship season as a big success, and to be sure it was, but it is worth noting that on July 31st that season the Mets were 53-50, hardly the juggernauts that the 18 games over .500 squad would finish with. It’s also worth noting that August and September were driven by unreal performances by Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy. Remember that Alderson really wanted to sign Carlos Gomez, a deal that fell apart at the 11th hour just before Cespedes was brought in. Would 2015 have ended as NL Champions with CarGo on the team instead of Cespedes?
Alderson has a terrible track record of running the front office as now has been documented. Alderson claimed to be on a track for building a sustained winner with a new aura for the team. Clearly there has been nothing like sustained success under his reign of failed leadership. Furthermore, outside the Astros and their cheating scandal, there has been no front-office with as toxic of a team culture as the Mets.
Alderson is responsible for bringing in Mickey Callaway as skipper and Jared Porter as general manager, now both presently out of baseball for being serial sexual harassers. Instead of accepting his role, Alderson just said he thought they did all they could in evaluating these people despite, as we came to know, having poor reputations. Add in that his 2021 choice for general manager was just arrested for a DUI and on leave, and it is crystal clear Alderson cannot be entrusted with the major decision making the off-season requires. Should Alderson remain in baseball operations, there is no way for the team to emerge and move forward. Who on Earth would want to be connected to this toxic work and baseball environment and have Alderson as boss?
Much blood is spilled on a daily basis about the terrible decision-making by Luis Rojas from the top step of the dugout. Every fan sees the same crazy stuff. The likelihood Rojas survives is minimal given the poor performance of his teams in the past two years. I think most people, although not Dominic Smith, would be ready to dismiss 2020 as an aberration in almost every way imaginable. Focusing on 2021, the Mets record is almost identical to the average Mets record for Alderson’s 9 seasons, which is 6 games under .500. Alderson put the team together and made the changes at the trade deadline. Rojas is not responsible for the hideous baseball philosophy Alderson has brought to the team. The Mets hit like crazy under Chili Davis, and Alderson fired him for an unknown yes-man with virtually zero experience.
Modern baseball teams run daily plans as a collaboration between the front office, stats team, manager, and coaches. The things we see nightly cannot be solely attributed to Rojas. He will be removed, and I would do the same, but mostly because I believe a new president of baseball operations needs to emplace the team he or she wants. Fire Rojas? Sure. This needs to be done not only because of the record, but in response to a complete separation from Alderson, and his abject failure as a general manager and president of baseball operations.
Once an entirely new baseball operations team in in place, there are things between the lines that need attention, but these pale in comparison relative to removing Alderson and any power he may have. The Mets have virtually no starting pitching. There is no way one can bank on Jacob deGrom to be who he was before the last three months. The rest of the in-place rotation is all back end. A new general manager will recognize that the “core of young talent” that we talk about has accomplished nothing in the past 5 years – not a single winning season.
We all need to remember it is about the name on the front of the jersey, not the back. It is time to accept that a new direction and new faces are critical to get on Cohen’s three-to-five-year window to be serious World Series contenders. As for now, this team is seriously broken at many levels. Today is day 1 of the 2022 season, let’s hope there is entirely a new direction for Cohen’s New York Mets.
Could not agree more. You present this compelling case with equanimity and objectivity, and I can’t imagine anyone convincingly refuting the logical reasons you present.
The question will be about the courage of Steve Cohen. While he has every reason to completely wipe the slate clean, I and other skeptical and weary Mets fans fear that he will hedge, will equivocate, will deliberate, will balk, and will ultimately make half-assed and illogical moves that will effectively squander this opportunity in front of him.
The opportunity is to create a new franchise with a new directive and a new force behind its intent. He can remake the baseball team based on the real forces that drive the game. We are nearing the end of the all-or-nothing nature of baseball. The three outcomes of Home Run, Strikeout, or Walk has seen its rise and with it the game’s fall. Attendance is down, fan interest is low, and baseball salaries have pushed access to the game beyond the pocketbooks of the simple man and his children. The exclusivity of night games, perpetuated originally by Fox and ESPN, have ripped away the uniqueness of baseball’s place in America and forced it to compete with every other made for TV sport, a losing battle.
The new baseball will be built on “completeness”. Think contact hitting, speed, scoring and good defense. Those foundations will consistently win games and will be more exciting to watch. Steve Cohen will either see these inevitabilities and act to build his team for the next decade, or he will succumb to hackneyed notions, follow the herd, and remain lost in the land of mediocrity.
Thanks Wobbit. I will not waiver from my reporting on this. I agree this is a hard reset for the team. I really hope the “true outcomes” crap comes to an end. Its the worst form of baseball imaginable in my opinion. Im cheering for you to be right on that. Go think, a team that is balanced and can run, hit, catch, throw etc is meaningful.
Let me tell ya, modern baseball has gotten us to these 3+ hour dreadful games.
I really don’t see the Mets cutting ties with Alderson. Cohen more or less needed him to acquire the team. Barring some health-related issue, he’ll have input throughout the off-season and into 2022.
Alderson served his purpose. The Mets belong to Cohen. I’d cut the rope and let him fall. Alderson means nothing to the Mets anymore.
Chris,
Nice write up. I nominate you for another term as president of the Sandy Alderson fan club.
Certainly, the results speak for themselves, and they have not been good. Even Sandy himself, at the end of his first tenure (due to health reasons) said he likely didn’t expect to return based on merit. His return was due to some special circumstances, which I think deserve recapping.
Uncle Steve essentially bid $2.6 billion for a business/toy that he had no experience in and required approval from the majority of other owners. Uncle Steve’s background check wasn’t squeaky clean, and so he brought in a guy that knew the business, knew NY, and had a solid reputation amongst ownership. The plan was to get approved, then go get a younger guy to take on the baseball side as Alderson would move to the business side as he wound down his career given his age. That did not work due to multiple reasons, and now they try that plan once again. Let’s hope for success as Met fans.
2021 was an abomination but the majority of “blame”, IMHO, was below the PBO/GM level. The PBO/GM of course take some, but the majority was player/coaching/game prep oriented, including the injuries. Win or lose in 2021, the admin would have been proceeding in the same manner…get the PBO and let that person evaluate, staff, and recruit accordingly. As your title emphasizes, it is the first and most critical move for 2022, and beyond.
I’ll get my fan club banners made for 2022. I maintain that a big part of the rot started at the top and worked its way down. We saw it on TV, but to imagine 5 major FO changes year after year…its terrible.
Totally agree with what you have stated Chris. If Mr. Alderson is allowed to be a part of the decision-making going forward…well I just don’t see us going forward. We do need a bright and hopefully, experienced, POBO in order to go forward. If Mr. Alderson remains let it be only as head of the financial part of the team until his contract runs out at the end of next year. Then the new POBO can assume the title of President of the whole team. I do think that Mr. Cohen has learned enough about owning the team and its inner workings to also see the flaws in the current process and the organization as a whole. This is actually his first full year as owner and I think we will see him more involved with the decision-making as far as hiring this time around. LGM!!
We’re on the same page! Thanks for the comment!
Question:
Can the Mets be a win now team and at the same time build a formidable farm system where they have plenty of prospects to trade?
Not with the present configuration of the front office. This team is not in win-now mode as constructed. The past 11 years can be characterized as failure. This team is nowhere near “win now”.
You have made a compelling and accurate that Sandy Alderson should be removed as the decision- maker for any aspect of the baseball operations.
Thanks Metsense. Appreciated your perspectives in chatter yesterday. Glad I didnt have to watch that turd alone!
If we go by players who were at least 20% above average in OPS+ and ERA+ this year, the only “keepers” are:
Alonso (134)
Nimmo (132)
Loup (422!!)
deGrom (373!!)
Stroman (133)
Baez was 141 for the Mets, but 117 overall.
Replacements? Schwarber (148), Bryant (124), Gausman (145), Chafin (230), Iglesias (174).
The obvious first move has just occurred, and sadly it’s not the object of my article. The Athletic is reporting that Rojas has been let go.
It’s not a shock in any way, but this should not whitewash that the major problem is that Alderson built a club that has failed, a front office that has failed, and squandered the resources of a passionate fan base.
Hopefully, Alderson will be relegated to the “business side” within weeks and we will get the baseball leadership we deserve as New York Mets fans!
was fun following along with all of you this season. Until it wasn’t.
When are the winter meetings again?
Go…uh…Tampa Bay!
🙂
First week of December usually!!
Please note the following oversight on my behalf:
A new general manager will recognize that the “core of young talent” that we talk about has accomplished nothing in the past 5 years – not a single winning season.
Should have said “not a single playoff season”
Apologies.
Very happy to see them fire Rojas… one for one.
There is little doubt that, relative to the rest of you, I operate from a low information perspective, if for no other reason than the tiny number of Mets games I have viewed in the last 20 years. But I am challenging this assertion that Sandy has made terrible moves across the board.
Acquiring Wheeler for the about to walk Beltran? Getting Thor and Travis for RAD? Signing Yoenis as a FA? Letting manos de piedra Murphy walk? Letting Justin T walk? If anyone would call any of those bad, I could easily argue against them. Further, there are others.
Oh, also want to commend Chris for his fine, if lengthy piece. Neither hysterical nor filled with drama for drama’s sake. Nice balance
Chris, it’s hard to debate the facts that Alderson has not worked out for the Mets. Let’s go back to the beginning:
Alderson was working for MLB and was responsible for MLB totally screwing the umpires’ union. So, when Fred Wilpon goes to Selig and needs a $25,000 loan to make payroll in late 2010, Selig gives it to him and pushes Alderson on him to clean up the business side. Alderson’s first move was to lay off many Front Office employees. He promised to build the farm system but the Wilsons won’t/can’t spend on the better international prospects or scouts. Too, Alderson is trying to achieve one more hurrah, but his practice of using square pieces to plug round holes has consistently failed.
I have heard many stories about Alderson as a good guy and believe them. However, his lack of baseball vision – or the proper vision – and insistence on the manager being his stooge have left him with managers that we aren’t happy with. If BVW hires Girardi, does one think Alderson would have kept him seeing the mangers he had previously on the Mets?
Alderson’s defective thinking is why everyone avoided him in the first place it appears. He looks at a strikeout as just another out. But good teams know that it isn’t productive; we were raised in adhering to fundamentals. Alderson believes he won in Oakland because of McGwire and Canseco, and can’t recognize that it was his starting pitching, Eckersley, Lansford and the defense of a Walt Weiss and others that did it.
Alderson looks at offense and defense as 50/50, so in the 50% of defense is starting pitching. He wants them to strike everybody out and who cares if the defenders are even wearing gloves. That’s why his teams are always defective!
Exactly Gus. Its a philosophy that comes from the heart of the doping days. One thing is consistent between Oakland and the Mets is he doesnt mind surrounding himself with scoundrels.
I dont want Beane/Melvin in NY for anything.
I can’t agree, Chris. What about Bily Beans reshaping the Mets with solid, quality players and Bob Melvin solidifying the dugout and making smart in-game moves does not appeal to you?
In contrast: I cringe at the thought of Todd Zeile, Robin Ventura, Carlos Beltran, Walt Weiss… oh god… weak, unsure, weak, sputter, weak, cough…
We need strength and stability at the top:
1. Melvin
2. Bochy
3. Gibbons
Let’s play a tougher, faster, more dependable brand of baseball. I don’t want the players calling the shots…
One reason: Alderson is a creature of the A’s. Or maybe I should say the A’s are a creature of Alderson. Bringing these guys in is just an extension of Alderson. The more we get away from any of his DNA on this team the better.
Besides the Moneyball mindset isnt this team. I don’d have any bad feeling about Melvin, but I dont see Beane as any sort of GM “can’t lose”.
Alderson’s record speaks for itself, and I am not going to defend him or be an apologist…I am with the mind set that the team needs a fresh POBO, with Alderson strictly on the business side (as originally planned). However, I cannot agree with the conclusion that he has failed on every front and that the franchise has somehow been contaminated by his tenure. And I think this is especially true with respect to the 2021 results.
We all know the history of Alderson’s early years, but focusing on the last several years, The Brodie hiring and subsequent moves was extremely damaging…Kelenic/Dunn for Diaz/Cano, paying Familia $30 million for 0 WAR in 3 years, et al. With regards to 2021 moves, Realmuto was a perfect fit, but as Brian said, it is tough to blame the team if the guy didn’t want to come and was highballing, likely to drive up Philly’s price. Alderson did manage to avoid overpaying Springer, Bauer, and Conforto. While Bauer may not have been intentional, Alderson may have been able to go higher to nab him but thankfully didn’t. These move avoidances are extremely helpful to the next POBO. The Lindor overpay was clearly on the owner…time will tell if the acquisition was a win, price tag not withstanding. I was not a fan of the Baez acquisition since it required parting with assets, but there were rumblings that the owner was pressuring for a move, and PCA was the least painful chip to part with.
With regards to philosophy and results, in 2021 I believe the Mets were middle of the pack in regards to offensive strike outs. A quick look into the numbers of the three NL Division champs shows that each of those teams scored 100 or more runs than the Mets. Each of those teams also had more strikeouts and more walks, as well as more HR, doubles, and triples. They won because their offenses hit the ball harder and for more power…they fat out raked more. It’s not because guys moved up the runners or poked a single against the shift. I prefer the past game more than the three true outcome game, but Alderson didn’t invent the modern game. His hitters just failed to outperform the competition. They need more quality bats with pop. Theo, Beane, and Stearns likely know that.
T.J., this is the first time I’ve heard that Cohen was pressuring the Front Office to make a move. If that’s true, I hope he learns his lesson and will sit quietly from now on. I too thought that PCA was the prospect furthest away, that was injured, that made sense to move -since one had to go. But, you must admit watching Mets games all year, these hitters were just lost at the plate, especially the last seven weeks.
Does anyone know how we can get the strikeout and extra base hit numbers for the just the last seven weeks?
Gus,
I can’t say 100% for sure Cohen was pushing for a deal, but I do recall reading some innuendo at the time, right or wrong. I also recall reading that Jeff Wilpon was pushing Alderson to close the Cespedes deal back in 2015, while Alderson did not want to give up Fulmer. Who knows? This is why I have difficulty arriving at a declarative conclusion on root causes, either for the team execs, based on owner influence, or a manager, based on team exec influence. Any of us with a boss often times have to do things that we would not do ourselves, and in baseball, one or two of those can have significant consequence and determine winning/success or losing/failure.
The one thing I’ll add here is that the reason to look broadly at the Alderson regime, rather than the granularity of a single season or 2, is that this points at the direction of the team, which is the ownership and FO.
If you look at the Mets since 2010, the Alderson era is basically a bit under .500 as a team. Any individual year you can ascribe whatever causes, but it is possible to look at long stretches, see the record and then make some conclusions. There has not been sustained success with Alderson at the wheel. Changing managers did not really see a change in general team outcome. So while any individual result may be closer to the field, the arc of a decade is the hung on the FO and Ownership. The Alderson regime has not been one characterized by success.
A quick comparison with the Braves will show that.
Chris, since he was rebuilding its hard to say he was .<500, he failed. The rebuild itself failed as well. Look at the Pirates, they’ve been rebuilding for 25 years; the root cause is incredible stupidity in making trades. Alderson’s cause was lack of fundamentals taught in his minor leagues and not having enough talent from all that rebuild.
by 2015 the Mets were in the WS. So the thing is a long term look at his record is basically the facts.
1 Divisional title, 1 WC game. I dont think you can say he was rebuilding the whole time. Also, he only had 3 really tough seasons financially.
Ironically, that is 1 more World Series appearance than the Braves…hard to believe.
More strikeouts can be misleading. The Braves probably had 200 more at bats than the Mets (just a guess), and even they are a bad example because at east they hit a ton of HRs for their strikeouts. Maybe percent of team outs that are from strikeouts… the Brewers are a better example… they put the ball in play… better things happen.
On one of the ESPN games this week, Smoltz or ARod mentioned that the key component to division the winner were fewer strikeouts… just makes too much sense. Mets were absolutely terrible at productive at bats. Bye bye Rojas.
The Braves, Brewers, Yanks, and Rays all had a higher K% vs total PA than the Mets, who were 11th worst. However, the Mets scored many many less runs, because they had many many less extra base hits. They Mets were 27th in extra base hits, 25th in HR, and ironically, 27th in runs. 7 of the top 8 teams in runs made the playoffs, and the Blue Jays were the team that didn’t and they missed on the last day of the season. It’s not the strike outs that killed the Mets, it’s the pop of a circa 1970s National League team that killed them, driven my multiple regulars slugging well below career average. That was in no way the manager’s fault, and it’s a real stretch to pin that on the general manager/president in the context of the 2021 season.