The Mets are once again looking for a General Manager and a Manager as the offseason begins but that is not their biggest problem. The biggest problem the Mets have is that their payroll is bloated by $20 Million Dollar cheater. Sportrac suggests that the Mets have roughly $100.5 Million to spend this offseason to keep themselves below the luxury tax cap but there is a surprising amount of work to do if you actually want to make this team better and those numbers don’t yet factor in arbitration raises.
Front Office:
For those who wanted the Mets to wind up with Theo Epstein, I am sorry. It never felt like it would happen with the Former Boston and Chicago GM having very steep demands of teams wanting to hire him. This is okay and I don’t think the Mets should look back. I do think that the Mets had genuine interest in Billy Beene and David Stearns but those ships have also sailed. Ultimately I just want the Mets to make their decision quickly.
With regards to managers, the consensus is that the Mets will want to go with someone who has experience. The names being bandied about are Ron Washington, Bruce Bochy, Buck Showalter and Bob Melvin. Melvin is only an option if the Mets are also pulling Beene away from Oakland, making it a longshot. Bochy has a history with Alderson and it’s not a good one. This means that the Mets would realistically be looking at Buck Showalter and Ron Washington and either would be a suitable choice.
Free Agency:
The first decision the Mets will need to make will be regarding qualifying offers. They have this option with both Noah Syndergaard and Michael Conforto and given their injured and lackluster seasons, I suspect both would accept such offers but the question would be if the Mets are well served by making such offers.
Noah Syndergaard is an easy decision. He will get an offer if the Mets cannot work out an extension. Without a GM, I cannot see the Mets getting an extension accomplished in the limited timeframe they have left. Good money is on the Mets bringing Thor back to the team on a Qualifying Offer with little chance of bringing him back beyond 2022.
Making an offer to Conforto is less of a slam dunk. The outfielder turned things on later in the season but has certainly not earned a major extension conversation. If the Mets were gamblers they could pursue bringing Conforto back for three years at something around $14 Million per but ultimately it comes down to comparing the potential output of the outfielder vs. the salary. I think that if Conforto won’t sign a team friendly extension the time may have come to part ways
While on the subject of bringing players back, the Mets should look into bringing a number of players from the 2021 season back for 2022. Marcus Stroman, Aaron Loup, Kevin Pillar and Rich Hill would all be welcome additions to the team moving forward. The most expensive of these would be Stroman who will be a major target of the offseason for multiple teams. I’ve suggested Stroman as earning a 4 Year $80 Million dollar contract ($20 Million Per). This may ultimately be a little too low for him. Other options would include Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman, and Max Scherzer. The Mets have between $20 and $25 Million to assign to signing another front-end starter.
After Stroman or another starter is on board the Mets should look to re-sign Aaron Loup with a raise and potentially a short extension beyond 2022. I’ve priced Loup out at $5 Million per year for the next two seasons. Kevin Pillar and Rich Hill should be offered contracts similar to their 2021 numbers.
With all of these moves, thus far, the Mets are essentially bringing back their team from the tail end of 2021 (without Michael Conforto) and there isn’t much new to it. A big goal the team should have, especially with the advent of the DH in the National League (a likely scenario), should be for the team to field a better defensive squad in 2022. This means signing players who are actually capable of fielding their given positions. Bringing in a outfielder who has a ton of defensive versatility seems like a good option for the constantly injured Mets. Chris Taylor plays a solid outfield and can handle his own at shortstop and second base as well. He isn’t a world altering bat and I think the Mets can sign him for under 2 Years $8 Million per. If Nimmo continues to shine in center, he can stay there but Taylor and Pillar represent viable options if he reverts to sloppier play. All of these moves (so far) have the Mets spending roughly $54.5 Million of a potential $100.5 Million bank.
My final thought is that the lineup needs another big bat and that the Mets need to find someone who can either cover them at third base, second base or the outfield. My original thought was Marcus Semien and I still think he’s the right bat for the team but the cost of a first round pick (which the Mets would have to give up thanks to the Kumar Rocker debacle) is too much. This leaves the Mets with two players who will not cost a pick and I honestly think that either would work out and either option will be driving them right up to the cusp of the salary cap.
Kris Bryant – Bryant is a solid defensive third baseman who is also a solid right fielder with the ability to play multiple positions. Bryant was resurgent in 2021 with a 3.3 WAR and 25 home runs. The idea that Bryant mans third until Brett Baty or Mark Vientos are ready and then moves to the outfield makes some sense but Bryant is almost 30 and will be demanding a huge contract.
If the Mets sign Bryant: J.D. Davis becomes the DH and Dominic Smith moves to Left Field until Brett Baty or Mark Vientos come of age. At that point Bryant moves to Right Field and bumps Chris Taylor to Left.
Javier Baez – A year younger than Bryant and a member of the 2021 Mets. Baez ended the year with a 4.5 WAR and some memorable moments from a dismal second half. Baez and Bryant have similar power (with the edge to Bryant) and Baez provides far more in the speed department. Perhaps the intangibles are the thing that sets them apart. Baez and Lindor are friends and it would be good to keep the de facto franchise shortstop happy.
If the Mets sign Baez: Jeff McNeil becomes the starting Left Fielder and J.D. Davis holds down third base until Brett Baty and Mark Vientos are ready with Dominic Smith and Pete Alonso splitting DH and First Base.
Trades:
The Mets have a surplus of third base prospects but can’t afford to trade the wrong one. The Team can look into trading Ronny Mauricio but should only be considering this option if a team comes calling. Likewise, the Mets don’t have anyone on the roster that they can really trade for prospect depth either. Francisco Alvarez should be untouchable.
One thing you will see a lot of people suggest is to have the Mets trade away deGrom to “See what they can get”. This is not the way baseball works and teams will not just give you offers for the fun of it. This mentality comes from people being used to video games which let you become a team’s general manager. If the Mets consider trading deGrom, they are trading everyone currently on the major league ballclub who isn’t nailed down.
Outlook:
One of the goals for this plan was to improve the Mets offense. With either of my plans (at least until Brett Baty is ready for the majors I am still left with a sizable defensive hole. Either the Mets sign Kris Bryant and begin the year with Dominic Smith in left field or they sign Javier Baez and J.D. Davis continues to butcher third. We know that the Mets have two potential long term solutions at third base in either Brett Baty or Mark Vientos and one or both of them should be ready for the majors during the season. Based on his AFL performance the Mets might even consider Baty major league ready. For whatever it is worth, you can also have Luis Guillorme play at third if he is healthy and producing with his bat.
The glaring offensive hole is catcher. James McCann and Tomas Nido don’t provide much offense but they will rapidly be chased from starting roles by Francisco Alvarez who is extremely capable of making his major league ascension ahead of schedule.
To a lesser extent there is also the diminished play of Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith who are being factored into the lineups in both plans. There is a chance that one or both flame out and need to be replaced but with Mark Vientos and Ronny Mauricio in the minors as well there are options for doing just that. The hope is that the Flying Squirrel and Dom bounce back to something of their old selves.
Chris Taylor is not a “sexy” acquisition. He’s an okay outfielder who plays some other positions. With the Mets penchant for injuries this versatility is exactly why he makes sense. The Mets are bringing in Bryant or Baez for their offense and Taylor for his versatility. If I have to pick which major free agent, I’d prefer Bryant because he’s less of a strikeout magnet. While both satisfy the Mets offseason needs I prefer my lineup with Bryant to the one with Baez.
On the pitching side the Mets would have Tylor Megill, David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, Corey Oswalt, Thomas Szapucki and Harol Gonzalez all waiting in the wings down in AAA for when injuries rear their ugly heads. There is less depth for relief pitching which would be approached by making a few minor league offers to some major league veterans. I would like the Mets to give Franklyn Kilome a real shot at making the bullpen this season as he is out of options and looked pretty good for large stretches of 2021.
C1: James McCann
C2: Tomas Nido
C*: Francisco Alvarez
1B: Dominic Smith/Pete Alonso
2B: Javier Baez/Jeff McNeil
3B: Kris Bryant/J.D. Davis
3B*: Brett Baty/Mark Vientos
SS: Francisco Lindor
DH: Pete Alonso/J.D. Davis
Util: Luis Guillorme
IF: Robinson Cano
LF: Jeff McNeil/Dominic Smith
CF: Brandon Nimmo
RF: Chris Taylor
OF4: Kevin Pillar
OF5: Albert Almora
SP1: Jacob deGrom
SP2: Noah Syndergaard
SP3: Marcus Stroman
SP4: Carlos Carrasco
SP5: Taijuan Walker
CL: Edwin Diaz
SU: Seth Lugo
SU: Trevor May
MR: Aaron Loup
MR: Miguel Castro
MR: Drew Smith/Franklyn Kilome
LR: Rich Hill
There is obviously a lot that is the same through a lot of these offseason posts. So far, it seems the consensus is to cut Conforto, bring back Stroman and Loup and get one of Baez or Bryant to supplement the offense.
Pre Baty Lineups:
1. B. Nimmo, CF
2. C. Taylor, RF
3. F. Lindor, SS
4. J. Baez, 2B/K. Bryant, 3B
5. P. Alonso, DH/1B
6. D. Smith, 1B/LF
7. J.D. Davis, 3B/DH
8. J. McNeil, LF/2B
9. J. McCann, C
Post Baty Lineup:
1. B. Nimmo, CF
2. C. Taylor, RF/LF
3. F. Lindor, SS
4. J. Baez, 2B/K. Bryant, RF
5. P. Alonso, DH/1B
6. B. Baty, 3B
6. D. Smith, 1B/DH
8. J. McNeil, LF/2B
9. J. McCann, C
Both Syndergaard and Conforto get QOs, early indications are that Syndergaard accepts and Conforto declines, which would likely be optimal.
Pitching gets primary focus despite the hitting woes. Carrasco now adds some more uncertainty, although I actually see the surgery as a positive in that it provided some reason as to his ineffectiveness and also it could have fixed the issue. Either Stroman is retained or someone of his caliber signed/traded for (most teams don’t trade this caliber pitcher). The pen needs Loup retained and two quality arms added…one backend/closer capable, and one multi-inning piggy backer/opener type, preferably a left (Hill?).
Positionally/lineup I have been opposed Baez but I’m warming to the idea if “reasonable”. Conforto/RF needs to be replaced but I would avoid a pricey thirty-something. Perhaps a vet and maybe Lee gets a crack at some point. 3B is an issue but the also need to keep a path open for Baty/Vientos. Perhaps a vet glove-first vet on a short term. This doesn’t do much for the lack of offense, so they definitely need to consider the trade path for a bigger change, should the opportunity present itself…I’m thinking a shake-up type deal moving a deGrom or Alonso, if they get back high value to allow them to compete for a WC in 2022. Gathering more talent to go with their own crop of guys Alvarez/Vientos/Baty/Mauricio/Allen/Ginn etc. and the keepers of the current MLB vets.
The Conforto move is playing with some amount of fire. I suppose that the worst case scenario is going over the cap and the best case is nabbing a 2nd round pick. There is a lot of logic to it and I like it but if I were Conforto I would accept the QO and I personally prefer to save the extra $10 Mil for Baez/Bryant and Stroman.
Bryant’s ability to play right and McNeil being capable at both second and left give the Mets enough options to really choose between the two big infield targets who can’t get qualifying offers.
I hate trading deGrom and Alonso, who have been my guys through their Mets Minors days.
I tried to think farther out of the box, trying to scope out a deal with Minnesota that would bring in Buxton and Donaldson at the expense of Cano, Mauricio and others but I can’t see any team offering to take $20 Mil of dead weight.
D,
I agree with you on the Conforto scenario and associated risks, but Uncle Stevie’s wealth provides a competitive advantage, and I’d much prefer they risk short-term overpays vs. long-term deals with near certain back end sunken costs.
With regards to JDG and Big Pete, I don’t want to deal either. However, they need to explore every angle to deliver sustainable winning, and if parting with either or both provides a return that results in an overall value gain, combined with the ability to be competitive in 2022 and well poised with controllable, lower cost quality depth, then they may need to pull the trigger. Neither bringing in multiple expensive FA close to past prime, nor parting with blue chip prospects, is desirable. Adding pitching depth should be that hard…fixing the offense is harder.
This was a thought out article . It is hard to figure out the roster because each move is dependent on the previous move. This week, Matt and you tried to attempt it and stoked the fires of the hot stove league. Commendable jobs and quite enjoyable.
Chris Taylor would be nice addition for the Mets especially if McNeil were traded. According to MLBTR there is a chance the will received a QO and they also feel that he could obtain a contract in excess of 4/56. That is more line than 2/16 and further more, his 2021 salary is 7.8 now.
Loup should be signed but he should get at least a Trevor May contact of 2/15.75. He is better than May and has a strong available market. 2/10 would he a steal.
I don’t think Taylor is worth that much, obviously. I was looking for a solid outfielder with defensive versatility but really want someone in the 8-12 a year range on a short deal. If Taylor IS worth 14 per, I think I’d have to send the QO to Conforto.
Loup’s pricing was low. I think May’s contract would be fine for him.
I think the Mets may make some shocking moves. JDG as much as I live him is 33, but would still being in a good haul.
McNeill would be a very good utility player but Dom is dead weight. Last season was the real Dom Smith.
Let the hot stove begin.
The glaring thing about the lineups presented is the lack of hitting from the left side. I mean, Dom and Jeff, both were miserable, and I mean stunningly miserable this season. Fantasies of Jeff McNeil “bouncing back” are hopeful at best and pipe dreams at worst. Dom is just a log floating in the water.
Baez, Bryant, Taylor, Alonso, Davis, and McCann all become jeopardized by RH pitchers with good slide balls. If Mets are going to let Conforto walk, and they should, they need more than the oft-injured Nimmo and the high-questionable Lindor hitting from the left side. The Mets’ next big signing should be a switch-hitting OF or a LH hitting OF to hold things until Baty and/or Khalil arrive(s).
Dom Smith is just a square peg in the Mets’ round hole. Unless the Mets are willing to trade Alonso and reap a haul of everyday talent (can you tell I think they should?), they are better off packaging Dom in some way to get even One Player who fits the team better. He can be a viable LH hitting, cheap first-baseman, 7th place hitter, for some team.
Dom might even benefit from the move, settle in at 1B, work with a good hitting coach, hit .260/15HRs… maybe his best shot to remain in the league.