Baseball America’s Top 100:
Baseball America, as would be expected, ranked the top three Mets prospects amongst their Top 100 once again. Francisco Alvarez comes in as the 13th best overall prospect with Brett Baty coming in at 39th and Ronny Mauricio falling all the way back to 92nd in the standings. Baseball Prospectus likes the Mets a little better, ranking Alvarez 10th overall, Baty 13th and Mauricio 51st. Who’s right, who’s wrong and who might both lists have missed?
Francisco Alvarez a Top 20 Prospect:
Scouts seem to agree that Alvarez’s bat is going to make him an elite player when he reaches the majors and most people believe that he’ll manage to hold his own behind the plate. Being ranked 13th overall by Baseball America and 10th overall by Baseball Prospectus puts a considerable amount of prospect pressure on Alvarez. Once a player reaches the Top 10 you don’t see them returning to the Top 10 in the next season too often.
If Alvarez continues to produce in AA and especially if he improves upon his 2021 performance, it might force the Mets to promote him to the majors instead of AAA. Especially if James McCann doesn’t produce with the bat. It would require a special type of tightrope walking for Alvarez to perform well enough to stay where he is or move up in the rankings without him also reaching the majors and disqualifying himself as a prospect. That means that Alvarez either finds himself on the 2023 starting roster or falling in the prospect rankings below the Top 25.
Brett Baty Getting Some Respect:
The Mets have to love what they are seeing out of Baty both in the regular season and during the Arizona Fall League. The team should have confidence that he can be their future at third base as the slugger is set and ready to return to Binghamton in 2022 to make good on his ranking of 39th overall or the bullish Prospectus ranking of 13th.
Baseball America’s ranking is pretty solid as I look at Baty as being between 30th and 50th overall in the world of baseball prospects but does that mean Baseball Prospectus have lost their minds? A ranking this high does seem out of bounds based upon his AA numbers and his descent back to earth after his amazing start in the AZFL. There is little doubt that he looks like a bonafide future MLB starting third baseman but what isn’t clear about him, yet, is if he will be a star.
Unlike Alvarez, the Mets have the ability to hold Baty in the minors even if he performs well and because his 2021 numbers were not stratospheric he has plenty of room to improve. The Mets might still bring in a player like Kris Bryant (though that seems less likely) and could still see a situation where Jeff McNeil and Eduardo Escobar produce well enough to hold off promotion but the Mets also have another prospect who is slightly ahead of Baty and plays the same position. There are quite a number of scenarios where the Mets get to keep their #2 prospect in the minors all year even if he produces well at AA and AAA.
Are People Sleeping on Ronny Mauricio?:
Some people may be a bit shocked by Mauricio being ranked 92nd overall where as the Baseball Prospectus rankings of 51st seem a bit more in line with a 20 year old Shortstop with Mauricio’s current numbers and projected ceiling.
Mauricio had an okay year, in 2021, but may have underwhelmed people based on their own expectations. Did Baseball America rank him too low? Perhaps. Did Baseball Prospectus rank him too high? Maybe. I expected a ranking around 75th overall which is pretty squarely in the average between the two.
Much of Mauricio’s prior rankings were based upon his ceiling being incredibly high. Scouts are beginning to flip his qualifications away from potential and onto what he’s producing, despite him being younger than many prospects being drafted each year. What does this mean?
There are two things you can take away from this. One, the view of Mauricio’s value throughout the league is not particularly bullish at the moment and suggesting him as a trade chip is not going to bring back the same caliber of player that he may have netted the Mets in previous years. The other, is that his value has the greatest potential to swing upward.
If Mauricio (who is most thoroughly blocked from reaching the majors this season) has a big year in AA and potentially AAA he could easily rise from 92nd/51st overall to something as high as the Top 10 as Scouts realize that he’s still only 20 years old and see the floor of his skill rising up closer to the ceiling they once saw for him.
His future with the Mets remains murky as the Mets have few places to slot him with shortstop, third base and second base looking to be fully manned through the 2023 season. A trade and sign scenario for someone like Luis Castillo of the Reds is possible but, as mentioned above, the Reds may not value him as highly as they used to.
Players Baseball America Missed:
Should any other Mets have made the Top 100? Arguments could certainly be made for at least two of them. The bigger miss would have to be Mark Vientos and there are pretty compelling arguments as to why.
Vientos and Baty are pretty neck and neck in terms of performance and Vientos seems to have the edge when it comes to raw power. Ranking Baty 39th/13th (at age 22) and Vientos not appearing at all (also age 22) seems like a pretty big miss. Vientos had 25 home runs in 2021 and produced an OPS higher than Baty at AA. Baseball America listed both Vientos and Matt Allan as players who just missed their top 100 ranking.
The other player one can make an argument for is Khalil Lee who might be justified with an appearance towards the bottom of the rankings on the back of his .951 OPS in AAA that he put together last year. This was a bit of a longshot in comparison because of his abysmal performance in his major league “Cup of Coffee” last year. Lee is already a bit beyond the true prospect tag and will not factor into next year’s rankings.
2023 Projected Rankings:
Ronny Mauricio, SS: Potential to be a Top 10 prospect but should easily rank, without significant regression. There is considerable chance that the Mets trade him before the next rankings come out.
Brett Baty, 3B: The Baseball Prospectus ranking is an anomaly and I see Baty ranking anywhere from the Top 25 back if her isn’t promoted to the majors. I would say that Baty has a 50% chance of reaching the majors in 2022 at the moment.
Matt Allan, RHP: If Allan gets on the mound quickly and dominates to his potential I could see him breaking the Top 30 but it’s more likely that his comeback is a bit slower and his ranking lower.
J.T. Ginn, RHP: Ranking in the Top 75 would show pretty healthy player growth for Ginn who is still not viewed as a future #1 or #2 starter. If he can change that perception his stock will rise quickly.
Alex Ramirez, CF: A wild card in terms of ranking, you could see Ramirez rise to the Top 20 if he breaks out with gaudy numbers. Anywhere in the Top 100 would be a nice thing to see.
Mets 11th or 14th Overall Draft Picks: With two picks that high in the draft the Mets could see one or both put together enough in the short season of play to crack the Top 100 because of the Mystique carried by Top 20 Draft Picks.
Filling Out the Rosters:
After deciding not to make him an offer, the Mets did decide to bring back Stephen Nogosek on a minor league deal. Their prospect had a rough year in 2021 and is likely going to be a depth piece in the AAA bullpen. More excitingly, the Mets brought in Alex Claudio who joins Jose Ramirez and Antonio Santos as minor league contracts competing for one of the final bullpen roster spots. We expect the Mets to bring in at least one more major league contract relief pitcher but all three of these players have the potential to play impactful roles with the 2022 team.
I see the DH as a huge benefit for Alvarez and an argument for bringing him up next season (should 2022 play out without any major hiccups).
My sense is that the bat is ready. He’s a hitter.
But being a top, trusted catcher is a lot to ask. Playing alongside McCann would be a plus for him, take the pressure off. He can catch, say, 40% of the games and DH 50% of the others.
He’s also a good reason why the Mets should not get locked into defining the rule of DH in old-fashioned, Steve Balboni-esque terms. Keeping Dom as a DH, for example, is a nowhere move. The same is also true for Cano, come 2023. I’d want to see Cano play some 3B. He might be better than JD over there. As for JD, he has some defensive value in that he can DH and play 3B some of the time. Dom has zero defensive value and it is his great undoing.
I am very, very intrigued by Mauricio. The thunder is real. He might be a guy who gets bored, the mind wanders. I understand that he struggles with something I normally consider very important: plate discipline, recognizing pitches. Must improve. But this is a guy who could play 2B and hit 40 home runs. He needs to spend time in the outfield and a 2B this season. It would be a shame, and so typical, if the Mets just keep him at SS. But, yes, if the intention is strictly to trade him, maybe his value stays highest at SS. I’m not sure about that, personally.
I’ve seen Alvarez play a few times and he’s no butcher at catcher. He’s going to be able to be an average defender at the position and would do well learning from McCann and getting time at DH but he should not fall into the “pure DH” trap.
I’d start Alvarez in AA but be ready to promote him quickly if he resumes hitting and playing well. I’d then make him the #2 catcher and #1 DH platooning with McCann and Smith/Cano respectively.
Mauricio’s power is real and has room to grow. I just don’t think the Mets are invested in him anymore and I think he’s a trade chip at this point.
Mets fans should know more than just about anybody the tremendous advantage that comes with getting offensive production from the catcher position. So, absolutely, I want Alvarez in that role. Just think that with DH he can gently, slowly take on those responsibilities. Without DH, maybe a slow-inclined GM would want him to hone his defensive skills with another full year in the minors.
Sure, I would say he has good plate blocking skills and an average arm. His pitch framing and pitch calling are not things I could accurately scout with the sample size I’ve seen.
He also hustles. He’s by no means fast but he will surprise you by getting to things or beating a throw from time to time.
It’s becoming clear to me that there is a bias among prospect hounds regarding SS prospects, and not just the Mets but across MLB in general.
Looking at just the Mets, they are essentially 0-3 in SS prospects since Reyes left. Flores, Rosario, Gimenez. All were at some point top 100 prospects before making their debut, and which the early career returns haven’t matched the hype.
I did say early returns because Flores has been a nice semi-regular in his late 20s and Rosario has had 2 seasons which you could describe as competent, but all of who have fallen short of the big impacts that their fellow top prospects at other positions have had early in their career, like Alonso, Conforto, Harvey, Noah, who early in their career you could legitimately make a case to be the best player on the team at some point.
I guess my point is that the athletic toolsy guys, who get placed at shortshop because it is the hardest position on the field, don’t seem to translate into top level real-world success as high of a rate at which we’re valuing them, and maybe Mauricio falls into this category.
I hope not.
Good thoughts. I don’t think I agree, because none of those guys you named were top-top SS prospects across all of MLB.
Rosario was the surprise — that he couldn’t backhand a baseball was alarming. I think he’s pretty hitter-ish.
Gimenez is young but there have always been reservations about his bat.
I don’t think anyone ever thought of Flores as toolsy and athletic. But he’s hitter-ish too.
Rosario was rated in the top five prospects of all MLB when he was promoted to the majors, with one site having him at #1 overall.
Is that true? I don’t recall that.
You know, you are pretty much correct. Just looked it up.
In 2017, Rosario was 8th on BA’s list. He was 5th on MLB’s list.
Sorry I doubted you!
Actually i totally forgot about Cecchini (but doubt i’m the only one) so the Mets are actually 0-4.
Not as highly ranked as the other guys and wasn’t a top 100 consensus, but did appear on a few sites, and statistically his lower minors stats are not too far off from what Mauricio has produced. Let’s hope that comp turns out to be wrong too
I was convinced that Giminez was a “can’t miss.” If it were up to me, I’d put him into either middle-infield positions and just let him play… he’s a high-level offensive player and a solid defender… that guy is steady ML player, if not a star, waiting to happen.
The three twenty year olds should start the year in AA. Mid season, if they deserve a promotion, then they should end the season In AAA. There is no reason to rush them. Mauricio should switch to second base.
Vientos had a very good season and should start the year in AAA and should switch to the corner outfield to see if he can do it. Escobar, JD and eventually Batty are in his way at 3B. The outfield would be his quickest path to the majors. With injuries to the major league players he likely debut this season.
Lee had a very good minor league season last year. Right now, he has an opportunity to make the roster as a 4th outfielder and get consistent At Bats. Without consistent At Bats then he should remain in AAA for the playing time. He is only 23.
Allan should need a full season to see if he recovers and effects of TJ.
Ginn had a good season in A ball and should start in AA. Both pitchers are a ways off to the majors.
I thought Allan was coming fast before the injury. Now he needs a full year of taking the mound every 5th day and getting in the innings.
He’s by far our most interesting arm in the system.
Ginn with a full season under his belt after TJ might be able to move along a little quicker if all the stars align.
Agree on the no-rush philosophy. Yes, Mauricio has a path to be the regular 2B and should play there in the minors now.
I can see a future Mets INF of Alonso, Mauricio, Lindor and Baty (even if we sign Bryant, who can play OF later).
Vientos can be a DH later this year, and play some OF and 3B. One good thing is that he can platoon a bit with Baty, being that he’s a RH batter and Baty is a LH hitter.
The Mets should hold on to Lee. They really need OF depth.
A lot of people are too eager to include Ginn in a trade. They’ll need him a couple of years from now. In the meantime, we’ve got three players who can be traded for pitching and there’s Cohen’s billions to sign guys.
From the “who did they miss” category, I present JT Ginn. While Mauricio tries to find a defensive home, more contact, and consistency in his fielding, Ginn is hoping to get back to what he already was. The year before the TJ surgery, Ginn was throwing 99 and struck out 103 in 80 innings at Mississippi State while walking 18. As we know, pitchers need the first year to just re-acclimate themselves to pitching. Since getting back on the mound in June, Ginn struck out close to a batter per inning and gave up only 3 homeruns all year. Coupled with a 60% ground ball rate, and what’s there not to like?
Coming out of high school, Ginn was drafted in the first round by the Dodgers and offered above slot; but he declined. Then, after that great freshman year in college, he was one year away from being a top 5 pick, but got hurt. That’s how the Mets were lucky enough to get him.
He’s flying below the radar as everyone focuses on Matt Allen, but Ginn’s numbers and profile can stand next to anyone’s and by this time next year he may be in AAA already. He is being sold short being called a #3 starter because 99mph, a power sinker and a plus changeup are ace stuff.
The 99 MPH is news to me. I read he was sitting at 92-94 last season.
He was, touching 95. It was his first year back. He was at 99 at Mississippi State.