From my office chair, the Mets needed to install Jeff McNeil as their second baseman without going thru any dog and pony show about how a hot Spring Training from Robinson Cano could result in some type of time share at the position. New manager Buck Showalter agreed and indicated that McNeil would get the vast majority of playing time at the position. Hopefully, the early vote of confidence from the new skipper will allow McNeil to relax and concentrate on getting his offense back to pre-2021 levels.

While Showalter acted with decisiveness with the potential 2B problem, he’s gone the other way with the team’s designated hitter. With all of the years managing the Yankees, Rangers and Orioles, Showalter has tons of experience writing the DH into a lineup. But he hasn’t declared a winner at the NL’s newest position. And it looks like the biggest beneficiary of Showalter’s deliberateness here will be Dominic Smith.

When we last saw Smith, he was chasing pitches he had no business swinging at en route to a .667 OPS, which was .270 points lower than the OPS he put up over the combined 2019-20 seasons. Smith had fewer than 200 PA in both 2019 and 2020. The 493 PA he accumulated last year was easily an MLB high for the former first-round pick. Many concluded that what he did in the two previous seasons was merely a small-sample illusion, a belief buttressed by Smith’s .344 BABIP in that time period.

Last year, Smith had a .298 BABIP and his numbers cratered. The drop in that metric was expected. What caught me off guard was the drop in power. Over the 2019-20 seasons, Smith had a .571 SLG and a .272 ISO. Last year those numbers were .363 and .119, respectively. Smart money would have been on both of those numbers falling off in 2021. But anyone who says now they expected a .119 ISO is lying.

Clearly, pitch recognition and the decision on which pitches to swing at played a big role in the power decline for Smith. Now we’ve heard that he played last year with a partially torn labrum. That’s an issue that we usually associate with pitchers. But it can’t be fun to try to play thru that injury as a hitter, either.

No one wants to be seen as soft. Plus, with the Mets experiencing so many injuries elsewhere, there’s little doubt that Smith felt the need to push onward, allegedly for the good of the team.

So far in camp, we’ve seen Smith hit two homers off Max Scherzer in an intra-squad game and he also delivered a triple and a homer in the club’s first exhibition game against the Nationals. It’s easy to read too much into the results of early Spring Training competition in a rushed environment. At the same time, Smith had just one game all of last season with two homers and they didn’t come off a CY Award winner. Also, he didn’t hit a single triple in 2021.

During the lockout, my opinion was that J.D. Davis should get the bulk of the playing time at DH. My belief was that Smith should get some time there, too, but that most of his playing time should occur in the outfield, giving the occasional day off to Starling Marte and Brandon Nimmo, with more playing time subbing in for Mark Canha.

No one really wants to see Smith in the outfield. But it’s my firm belief that days off are a good thing for the regulars. Plus, my expectation is that a renewed emphasis on plate discipline would produce better results in the power department for Smith.

But the knowledge that Smith was playing hurt last year changes things. Davis may be more consistent but Smith may have the higher upside. Perhaps Showalter starts the year off with a platoon of the two players at the position. When he was first acquired, the thought was that Davis would be used as a lefty masher. But he’s proven able to hit RHP, too. His biggest challenge has proven to be staying healthy. Davis’ production fell off in 2020 after getting hit by an Aroldis Chapman fastball. And last year his results early were great but several injuries took their toll.

And to further muck things up is the presence of Cano. Assuming he’s on the roster when Opening Day rolls around, Cano will get a handful of starts at 2B. But he’s likely to get playing time at DH, too. So, Showalter will have to balance three people for playing time at the position. It’s hard to run a straight platoon with three players involved.

It’ll be curious to see how Showalter handles the DH position. The trend recently in the AL is for multiple people to play the position, rather than having one primary guy to handle the spot. But that’s more due to not having a big slugger without a position to utilize, rather than a preferred way to run things. Here are the teams with the most production at DH in the AL last year and the players with at least 80 PA at the position on the team:

Angels – Shohei Ohtani
Red Sox – J.D. Martinez
Twins – Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson
Yankees – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge
Indians – Franmil Reyes

The Twins traded Cruz during the season, necessitating another player to fill the position. And they essentially swapped one regular for another. Injuries limited Stanton to 139 games last year and he was the DH in 108 of them. Six times he took the field as an outfielder in an NL park and five times he was a pinch-hitter. Additionally, 12 times he played the outfield came after September 1. Thru the heart of the season, if he was available, Stanton was the DH.

Here’s how the three teams in the middle of the pack for production from the DH spot last year filled the position:

Astros – Yordan Alvarez, 425 PA; Michael Brantley, 132 PA
Orioles – Trey Mancini, 287 PA; Ryan Mountcastle, 168 PA, Anthony Santander, 84 PA
Royals – Jorge Soler, 181 PA; Salvador Perez, 163 PA; Ryan O’Hearn, 107 PA

Maybe the Mets end up with a situation like the Astros, with two people getting the lion’s share of PA from the DH spot and with a clear number one between those two.

My hope is the Mets finish among the league leaders in production from the DH spot. For years, we’ve heard how they’ve tried to play people out of position to get their bat in the lineup. But they’ve upgraded the team defensively since Steve Cohen arrived, adding better defenders in Francisco Lindor and James McCann last year along with Mark Canha and Starling Marte this past offseason. Now they can further improve with putting an offensive player in the DH spot.

The top five teams in the AL all got at least an .800 OPS from the DH spot in 2021. The Angels led the way with a .972 OPS from their DHs. Meanwhile, the Astros got a .761 OPS from their DH crew. The Mets’ goal should be to have top level production from the DH spot, significantly above what the Astros received last year. The question for Showalter is how to achieve that type of production. As for Smith, he’s now got to be viewed as a legitimate option to get significant playing time in the spot for the Mets.

9 comments on “Dominic Smith’s hot start complicates Buck Showalter’s DH decision

  • Wobbit

    I’m pretty sure that Buck would agree that having three guys sharing the DH is not ideal. Even two evenly-sharing poses a problem of consistent playing time. I know that JD Davis would be most productive getting 400 PAs. He’s a rhythm hitter (as are most) but really seems to tank when his playing time diminishes.

    Given my druthers, I’d cut Cano loose and keep Smith as a potential contributor on several levels, where Cano really isn’t. The recent talk of Robbie hitting “until he’s 50” is just hype. He did ok in the shortened 2020 season, but he was juicing! He’s probably done and he knows it… thus the juice. But no matter, he will get hurt soon enough and be reduced to an expensive dugout presence.

    Smith’s career hangs in the balance this season. He either is a productive hitter and a decent glove and maybe ready to bring something in a trade, or he is a low-level bench player with no further claims or excuses. We all know the guy has potential and can hit, but he has to make good on it.

  • T.J.

    From my office chair, it’s totally obvious that Dom is in the best shape ever in his career, at least until next spring.

    Dom, JD, and McNeil bouncing back and staying healthy will be problems for our new manager, but these problems he will welcome gladly.

  • Metsense

    Davis was also my DH choice in the off season. McNeil, since there wasn’t any trade, would fill in as 4th outfielder when needed. Smith’s injury and his early power surge might himself a more prominent role on the team. He could win the DH position and also be the 4th outfielder. Then McNeil could stay on second base. The lineup would be more balanced with the lefty Smith instead of the righty Davis.

  • TexasGusCC

    If I had my druthers, if Smith can be the Smith of 2020, Cahna should sit. Smith in LF will work for six innings with Davis at DH and The Squirrel at the keystone. I can’t understand the need to sign Cahna so early in the free agency period but at his best and Smith’s best, Smith blows him away.

  • ChrisF

    I think some sort of magic fairy dust over Smith’s bat is way too early to envision anything. Weve had many a player hit the skin off the ball in March only to find when pitchers throw in anger reality looks different. Im happy Smith is on the mend and that can only help. But one thing that wont change is that his batting is locked with a BABIP so far above average that reality dictates the numbers will head lower, if not as bad as an injury year. Unless he is David Wright…

    The team always needs real quality depth at all positions, including DH. At least we have a DH manager on the top step this go around.

    People performing above avg is a real good problem to have. Lets hope we have it.

    Already, we see the incredible disappearing man Starling Marte, or was that “Starling Lowrie,” who is on the shelf with an oblique injury. Glad those dont take long to heal.

    • Brian Joura

      Dominic Smith SLG and ISO:

      2017 – .395 SLG, .198 ISO
      2018 – .420 SLG, .196 ISO
      2019 – .525 SLG, .243 ISO
      2020 – .616 SLG, .299 ISO
      2021 – .363 SLG, .119 ISO

      Coming into last year, Smith had a lifetime .494 SLG and a .236 ISO – this is not some Punch and Judy singles hitter. He’s not going to post a .600 SLG ever again or have an ISO of almost .300, either. But a .500 SLG% isn’t out of the question if he’s healthy. Means he has to hit around .260 or so if he has an average power season. Given that he was terrible last year and hit .244 – it’s not some insurmountable hurdle.

      But even if we give him the same .244 AVG of last year and combine it with his 2017-21 ISO – you’re looking at a .480 SLG%. That would have been the 51st-best SLG in the majors last year, just .001 behind Kris Bryant.

      It would be nice if the singles fell in and he put up a .315 BABIP. But it’s way more important that Smith is healthy enough to drive the ball for doubles and homers and get that ISO and SLG back to where it was prior to last year’s injury-plagued season.

  • Steve_S.

    I’m thinking that they’ll go with all three into the season. If Cano sucks, he will get released. If Smith and Davis both hit well, one will be traded, with their value up. If one hits way better than the other, a trade may still happen with the Mets getting less than hoped for for the lesser player.

  • Wobbit

    Leave it to Brian to shed some light on the matter through real numbers. Let’s hope Dom Smith really is a power hitter again and can get his share of knocks to allow .260 or better. That would allow him to rotate with Canha in OF, with Alonso at 1B, and with whomever is the DH. One thing for sure, if Dom hits, he will play. Still, the Mets would benefit the most from dumping Cano. Imagine him getting off to a hot start, then slowly fading into nothingness… very deleterious to the team’s season by late July. Or maybe after a torrid start, they find a team that wants him and will pay 25% of his salary… nevermind, that ain’t never gonna happen… he’s toast without the juice.

  • MikeW

    So who are we going to trade for a lefty ?

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