A lot can happen in a month and for a number of Mets prospects May was far kinder than the month of April. Of particular note is Mark Vientos who was utterly resurgent in the month of May after an absolutely dismal month of April. Likewise, Nick Plummer, Jose Peroza, Eric Orze and others bounced back to relevance as the Mets Top 20 begins to solidify behind 2022 statistics.
Two players who were already enjoying success in April continued their top notch play into the second month of the season. Ronny Mauricio and Alex Ramirez seem inclined on achieving the Top Prospect position for the organization and may get there if they continue their stellar play.
The one prospect on this list that fans should be truly worried about is Carlos Cortes. The utility player with no true defensive home began the year as the #9 prospect in the system and may soon find himself outside of the Top 20 entirely. Cortes is not hitting at all and has his entire prospect value tied to his offensive production.
Top 20 Prospects:
- Francisco Alvarez, C (AA) – No Change: The honest truth is that Alvarez has had a down month showing less power and contact than he typically displays. His ranking as #1 in the system is still safe for the foreseeable future.
- Ronny Mauricio, SS (AA) – Up 1: Seeing Francisco Alvarez fall from the top spot of the prospect list felt impossible before play began but Mauricio is currently the best player in the Mets minor league system. He has slashed .263/.288/.513 in May and has ten (10) extra base hits during this month.
- Brett Baty, 3B (AA) – Down 1: Brett Baty’s month of May was doing perfectly fine but he’s hit a four game skid of poor hitting. His dip in the rankings is ultimately more in the hands of Ronny Mauricio earning his way back into the #2 slot.
- Alex Ramirez, CF (A) – No Change: Ramirez has followed up his impressive batting average of April with a powerful May in which he slugged .573 so far. He’s getting caught stealing way more often than expected but Met fans would be right to get excited.
- Mark Vientos, 3B (AAA) – No Change: People might have been concerned after Vientos struggled in April but he’s turned things on in May. His slash line for the month is .277/.370/.574 which is righting the ship after a dismal .164/.257/.311 in April.
- Calvin Ziegler, RHP (A) – Up 1: Things continue to progress well for Ziegler, who uses an impressive trick of not being injured to become the #1 pitching prospect in the organization. The pitcher has 22 strikeouts in the Month of May over 14.1 innings pitched.
- Nick Plummer, OF (AAA) – Up 1: Like Vientos, Plummer has had a nice May .283/.313/.587 but unlike Vientos, Plummer wasn’t absolutely dismal in April. It’s not clear what the ceiling on Plummer is but he’s hitting exceptionally well in AAA.
- Matt Allan, RHP (A+) – Down 2: Allan has yet to pitch in 2022 and continues to slide down the rankings as healthy players perform.
- Jose Butto, RHP (AA) – Up 2: Butto has actually seen his numbers dinged up in May but ultimately he’s among the best pitchers left in a heavily depleted Mets farm system.
- Juan Simon, RHP (DSL) – No Change: the DSL hasn’t begun yet but Simon has some hefty expectations on him based on his signing.
- Khalil Lee, OF (AAA) – Down 2: Lee is currently down in Port St. Lucie but no apparent injury occurred. It seems the Mets wanted to protect Lee a bit as he started the year struggling dismally. He needs to get back to AAA soon.
- Robert Dominguez, RHP (FCL) – No Change: There was hope that Dominguez would pitch in Port St. Lucie but the Mets seem inclined to hold him back for the FCL rookie league. Looking forward to seeing some stats soon.
- Thomas Szapucki, LHP (AAA) – Up 2: The time seems to have come for Szapucki as the injury beast has struck Mets pitching in Queens. He last pitched on May 20th and you could be soon seeing the lefty pitching on SNY.
- Hayden Senger, C (AA) – Up 3: Senger is seeing the lion’s share of catching duties as the Rumble Ponies are having Alvarez DH whenever possible. Senger is the future Tomas Nido and he is a better hitter than defensive backup catcher currently in Queens.
- Dominic Hamel, RHP (A) – Down 2: Hamel has scuffled a bit but it isn’t anything to get terribly concerned about with how far he currently is from the majors.
- Jose Peroza, 2B (A+) – Up 3: The darling of the 2021 season is not hitting the way he was in 2021. It could be that last season was a fluke, but we still have our fingers crossed.
- Carlos Cortes, OF/2B (AAA) – Down 3: Things have gone from bad to worse for this prospect whose value appears to be in free-fall. He followed up a bad but acceptable slash line of .213/.304/.328 in April with a truly unacceptable .109/.125/.109 slash in May.
- Jaylen Palmer, SS (A+) – Down 2: He hasn’t fully shaken off the cold start of April but his power and patience have made his May OPS over .800 and there is plenty of hope left in this local prospect.
- Eric Orze, RHP (AAA) – Up 2: A player the Mets may soon need in Queens, Orze was the top prospect reliever the Mets had in AAA at the start of the year. His 11.05 ERA from April did nothing to inspire confidence but his 4.32 ERA for May along with his 15 strikeouts in 8.1 innings has helped him rebound back into the Top 20.
- Willy Fana, OF (DSL) – Up 4: For a player who has no stats to look at, Fana has bounced a lot in the rankings thanks to the play of those on the fringe of the Top 20. Ranked 21st in the pre-season rankings he dipped to 24th last month and now ranks 20th as he’s buoyed by his international prospect scouting.
You got your wish, as Lee is now back at SYR.
Mike Vasil got promoted to BRK, which was good to see. And Joel Diaz got promoted to SLU. Be interesting to see how his stuff will play in this country.
Both of them are shifting up in the Top 50 and probably get listed in the Early June post.
To be fair… my wish is for Lee to produce in AAA not just to go back there.
Three comments:
1. Mauricio’s low OBP is a concern… the Mets are leaning towards grinders who see pitches and take walks after long at bats. Unless he can really hit, he’d benefit from following the memo.
2. Khalil Lee’s clock is ticking. Speed and defense are great, but strikeouts kill rallies and shorten the lineup. Bat to ball skills are not something one can learn… it’s a talent issue… I’m afraid Mr. Lee needs to show signs of improvement soon or else…
3. Jose Peroza struck out 111 times in 2021, against A ball pitchers!… uh… no. Frankly, I’d rather have Jose Peraza on the team…
Dave,
What do you think happened with Lee down in Brooklyn?
It was a radical move — and one I liked — when they sent him down 2 levels. But now he’s back up after, I think, 2 weeks. Maybe less?
I thought he might be down for a “fix,” a total readjustment, but now that he’s all the way back up, I wonder if it was more about shock treatment.
I’ve never been high on him.
It’s interesting how the old 5 Tools concept has endured, even in the days of a statistical revolution. Yes, Lee is toolsy as hell. But does he has pitch recognition? Plate discipline? Coachability?
On Mauricio, he’s a guy who will never walk enough. It’s not his game and it will likely take him years to reach an acceptable level. But the productivity & potential are off the charts. A maddening and possibly great player. If we focus on what he can’t do, doesn’t do, we might miss what he does.
Also, I think there are certain guys who *need* a higher level of competition. Rather than slip back, they surge forward.
I really wish the Mets were playing him in the outfield, or planning on that for the Arizona League this Fall. His defense looks suspect at SS. Maybe okay enough at 2B. He sure feels like a guy who could well be traded this deadline. We better get a lot back for him.
To sound like Brian for a moment. Mauricio reminds me of Alfonso Soriano. A player who most teams would gladly love to have in their farm systems despite the glaring issues with his approach. Could Mauricio be a 30/30 hitter? He’s fast enough and powerful enough. Can he become more disciplined at the plate? Maybe not.
I was wondering if I ever made the Mauricio/Soriano comp and I did, back in 2018.
Take that – Keith Law!
BTW – just saw that Cortes was sent down to AA
Senger as rated #14 . Is it because he is good or everybody below him is bad?
Would you tender Nido this winter? Is Mazeika better than Senger? Than Nido? When do you think Alvarez will be ready?
I think that they will tender Nido because catching is a commodity. Mazeika is better than Senger’s high ceiling and Mazeika is equal to Nido. Alvarez will debut in the summer of 2023.
Very soon we will see Szapucki fill in a start. I hope it goes well . The Mets are very thin when it comes to starting pitching prospects. I hope they draft some this year.
I like your Senger question a lot. I’ll justify my ranking of him.
Rankings are always a mixture of ceiling and floor. Senger’s ceiling is as a major league starting catcher on a team where there is no star for the position. I think Nido’s utility to the Mets is probably at an end because of him. He is likely a tick below Nido in pitch calling (since Nido is dealing with the major leaguers) but defensively he’s quite good and is better than Nido or Ali Sanchez. Hitting wise, Mazeika is probably better but Patrick will never be a plus defender or enough of a hitter to make his glove worth it over the long haul. (Mazeika is playing above his head right now… but it does make me sound less dumb/crazy in old podcasts with Brian) I think that 2023 you have Alvarez as C/DH with McCann as the backup catcher and Senger waiting in AAA. Starting in 2024, Alvarez and Senger become a dynamic duo again.
Would you care to run some mock drafts with me as the draft comes closer? I would like the Mets to use their Top 3 picks all on pitching.
I’m not qualified or knowledgeable do do a mock draft. They should draft pitchers unless a good hitter falls in their lap. Pitching is the name of the game. They are very expensive on the free-agent market and also very costly in trade. Good pitching or catching is a rare commodity. It is better to develop them in the minors and hoard them.
A comment on Khalil Lee: He went down three levels to St. Lucie but even there he struck out 32% of the time, not a heck of alot better than the 37% in Syracuse. Then, he gets caught stealing three out of his four attempts in St. Lucie! He really didn’t deserve to be brought back, but it may be a psyche thing as they may have promised him three weeks and being a MLBPA player, you don’t want to bring grievances.
Jimmy makes a good point about appreciating what a player is and not what he “should be”, but guys with low OBP means they don’t have much discipline, and that hurts a player as they climb. But, Marc Tramuta also called Mauricio a “superstar in the making.” Interesting…
Mr Billy Eppler, Whatever you do don’t trade Mauricio!
If Mauricio is faster than most, why not let him track fly balls in the outfield? I was big on doing it with Rosario, especially after Andres Gimenez came along. If Conforto and McNeil can become decent outfielders, imagine what more speed and infielder’s hands and instincts can do.
Vientos seems to be the next guy up. Is he also a potential LF? I’ll say this again, JDDavis seemed ok out there, if a step or two slow. Great arm, good instincts. I love guys who are flexible and offer the manager options. JD could be a game-changer offensively.
JD is a terrible outfielder, stone feet. LF is not a consideration, thank God.
Vientos doesn’t seem to be able to field either, but I think the bat will get a shot at some point this year. He can hit.