I had been writing a post for about a week that focused on the failure of Darin Ruf and the need for the Mets to promote Mark Vientos to the majors. The Mets have finally seen fit to try something else with their DH as nothing has seemed to click all season. At this point, I might argue that Dominic Smith should also be with the Mets but there comes a limit to bench spots a team can give to defensively limited players. Daniel Vogelbach has had some success and looks like a nice value add but Darin Ruf has been, pardon the pun, rough.
Mark Vientos profiles, in theory, as a replacement to Ruf and an option for the 2023 team as their starting DH. The issue that should be stressed to all fans is that Vientos has needed an adjustment period after most promotions and isn’t likely to see a ton of success right away. Ultimately, I don’t think the Mets will give Vientos enough time to find his footing and if Ruf shows any signs of life that leash will be even shorter.
As fans, don’t judge anything Vientos does this season too harshly. He needed a month in AAA to find his feet and that was with playing almost every day. Playing a fraction of the time (Vogelbach will get the most starts and then Vientos and Ruf will split starts vs. lefties) I would not be shocked if Vientos looks downright awful in his brief 2022 exposure. There are better things to come.
Top 50 Prospects Prior to Spring Training:
- Francisco Alvarez, C: A
- The Mets were hoping Alvarez would succeed in AA to be ready to begin 2023 in AAA. What they got was their Top Prospect destroying AA and earning a mid-season promotion to AAA and media buzz questioning if he were ready to get his MLB debut in 2022. Had he stayed hot in AAA the Mets might have been considering doing just that to squeeze more offense out of a catching tandem where Tomas Nido has been (far and away) the more productive option. As things lie, Alvarez repeats as the Top Prospect to end the season and competes with Nido and James McCann for a starting position next Spring.
- Brett Baty, 3B: A+
- For as good as Alvarez played, I have to give the lone A+ rating to Brett Baty who not only provided plenty of impressive work to earn a promotion to AAA but also succeeded after that promotion to warrant a promotion to the majors. An injury will keep Baty in the prospect list to end the year, especially with Eduardo Escobar breaking out of a slump but the Mets have some hard decisions to make about the offseason and where their prospects fit within it.
- Ronny Mauricio, SS: C
- A player ranked in the 40s getting a C for the year is different that the #3 prospect in an organization getting one. Mauricio had a fine year but didn’t do anything to assuage the doubts about his game. Scouts again saw the streaky hitting and the strikeouts paired with tremendous physical talent. His drop in the rankings is too severe, in this writer’s opinion, based upon his season but it’s understandable. His ceiling remains as an Alfonso Soriano style player with perhaps more defensive versatility and less stolen bases.
- Mark Vientos, 3B/DH: B+
- Had Vientos not struggled so mightily early in the season the Mets would have never made their trade for Darin Ruf. Vientos did struggle but climbed his way back and really had himself a very good season. There is little left for him to prove in AAA as a hitter but with the crowded field for 2023 don’t be shocked if he is back in AAA to attempt, once again, to hash it as an outfielder.
- Matt Allan, RHP: N/A
- We’ve talked at length about it being disappointing that the Mets weren’t able to get Allan on the mound in 2022. It’s possible that Allan sees time in the AFL to simply get him some innings but it’s very possible that the first time we see the Met prospect pitcher, still ranked above all other Met pitching prospects, is Spring Training.
- Khalil Lee, OF: C-
- Once again, when promoted, Lee failed to do anything to suggest he has value at the major league level. In AAA, he played well enough to still give people hope that he could still be a fourth outfielder but it seems that he might never even hit enough in the majors to do that.
- Alexander Ramirez, OF: A-
- Ramirez began the year in Low A and got flaming hot for a while, so that he broke into the Top 3 for a minute. Ramirez has a lot in common with Mauricio but has two edges over the Shortstop in terms of value. The first is that he actually uses his speed to steal bases, something Mauricio has never managed to do with any consistency, and the second is that while he strikes out often, his walk rate is higher. Ramirez, like Mauricio, will be scrutinized more and more closely as he performs (or doesn’t) in the upper levels of the Minors.
- Nick Plummer, OF: D+
- For a heartbeat, lots of Met fans dreamed that Plummer was going to be something big. He came up to the majors after playing well in AAA and had a few very timely hits for the Mets. Then… the wheels came off and the prince turned back into a frog. Plummer stopped hitting in the minors and didn’t even perform that well in AAA.
- Carlos Cortes, OF/2B: F
- If you look only at Cortes’ numbers in 2022 a F might seem like a harsh mark. Then, you might look deeper and see that he began the year in AAA, was demoted and still performed below his 2021 numbers in AA. Cortes can probably come completely off the radar for prospects as he doesn’t even have a natural defensive home.
- Calvin Ziegler, RHP: B-
- Earlier in the season, Ziegler looked like he was having a better year and that he might rank above the inactive Matt Allan despite the impressive scouting Allan still boasts. He pitched well enough in Port St. Lucie to look like he’s ready to move on to Brooklyn in 2023 and had significant value despite now being the fourth best pitching prospect in the organization.
- Juan Simon, OF: C-
- While Simon was the biggest international signee for the year he did not have as much buzz as players Mets had acquired in previous ones. On top of this he did not play well in the DSL. While one cannot trust DSL stats to be reliable in any way, you’d hope the bigger signees would play well in a league that usually makes players seem better than they are.
- Robert Dominguez, RHP: N/A
- Dominguez did not appear in the minors in 2022 and after not impressing as much as expected in 2021 he has fallen quickly out of the Top 20. The Mets still hope his raw stuff translates into value once he takes the
- Dominic Hamel, RHP: A
- If there was another player who earned an A+ it would be Hamel. He earned a promotion to High A Brooklyn and pitched well once he got there. He’s squeaked ahead of Calvin Ziegler in the End of Season rankings (Spoilers) as well. I would anticipate seeing three of the four top pitching prospects stacked at the top of the Brooklyn rotation with Allan, Hamel and Ziegler looking to make the break to AA to get to the head of the pack.
- Jose Butto, RHP: B
- First, Butto earned a promotion from AA to AAA and then he pitched well enough in AAA to make a spot start in the majors. That spot start wasn’t flawless but it wasn’t all that bad either. If you accept Butto for what he is, a #5 starter or a AAAA depth starter on a good team, he’s got real value. The Mets have had pitchers with common stuff break out with other teams when the Mets go to sleep on them but I don’t know if Butto will go the route of Colin McHugh or not.
- Jaylen Palmer, SS: F
- It isn’t easy to be ranked in the Top 20 and fall completely out of a team’s Top 50 but Palmer almost managed it. He just failed to hit the ball consistently and, while he showed nice power, his batting average is just too low to factor.
- Thomas Szapucki, LHP – C
- As a writer, I will miss Thomas Szapucki. Having followed him from his breakout in Low A and through his multiple injuries, I was sad to see him level off as a backup starter waiting to be converted into relief. I will also never be happy with the deal that sent him away as it was a move that seemed like a waste of time. There were better players and more important positions (like catcher) to trade for. Ultimately, I wish him well.
- Jose Peroza, 2B/3B/DH: B-
- Looking at his overall numbers, Peroza’s 2022 was simply lackluster. Looking at his splits his season looks a little better. Peroza slumped badly a couple times but also played months with exceptionally good production. His value has dropped a little, but not a lot.
- Hayden Senger, C: B-
- If I were to be on a podcast with Brian Joura and were asked for a crazy prediction with a modicum of truth, I would offer the following. “Heyden Senger will break 2023 camp with the Mets with Alvarez getting more time in AAA.” It’s crazy because Senger is a much inferior hitter, but it’s not crazy because he’s defensively ready for the majores and has less to lose if he’s promoted too aggressively. Some people chafe at how highly I rank a future backup catcher but his floor of prospect value is too high not to.
- Travis Blankenhorn, 2B: D
- I didn’t love ranking Blankenhorn so highly as he never really felt like a prospect as much as a major league depth piece. His season in the minors certainly didn’t change that perception.
- Junior Santos, RHP: D
- The prospect clock on Santos breaking out is rapidly approaching midnight. His 2022 season shouldn’t give people much hope of him making good on his scouting in 2023.
- Willy Fana, OF: B
- Above all other things, don’t put weight in the DSL numbers you see. Fana was the second best of the Mets international signees but he played better than Simon in the DSL in their first taste of pro ball. Let’s see if it means anything when he comes stateside.
- Eric Orze, RHP: C+
- Orze struggled at various parts of the season but still may find himself with a major league future as a relief pitcher. He has another season to put that success together and the Mets may be forced to give him an opportunity with so many relievers moving on after the season.
- Josh Walker, RHP: C-
- Walker looked like he’d be in the mix for spot starts but injury and poor performance shifted him down several pegs. It doesn’t look like he has any future with the Mets anymore.
- Jake Mangum, OF: B-
- Mangum played really well and it hurt to only give him a B- for his efforts. I’m hopeful that he can still be a fourth outfielder and succeed where Khalil Lee and Nick Plummer could not but his injury and age are both significant factors against him.
- Harol Gonzalez, RHP: D+
- Injured for most of the year, Gonzalez wasn’t very good once he was back and only ever looked like a fifth starter back in 2020. If he had been healthy in 2021 the Mets would have gotten to see if he could be more but I think that ship has sailed.
- J.T. Schwartz, 1B: A-
- One of a handful of secondary prospects who broke out to greater relevance based on their 2022 performances. Schwartz had a false start in the early season before really settling in to a fine season. A nice thing that you always look for in a player is that his numbers seemed to get better as the year went on. You can expect Schwartz to begin the year in AA.
- Nick Meyer, C: B-
- Meyer went under the radar and managed to put together a pretty solid season as a future backup catcher. He profiles similarly to Senger and had similar offensive numbers but doesn’t get as many rave reviews defensively. He still factors into the future as a possible backup catcher.
- Levi David, RHP: D
- Sometimes players just don’t play well. Levi David was ranked too highly and pitched pretty poorly.
- Tony Dibrell, RHP: C-
- Like Harol Gonzalez, Dibrell was hurt for most of the season. He pitched a little better after he returned to AA but still does not appear to be likely for a major league impact at this point.
- Mike Vasil, RHP: A
- Without the same prospect buzz of Dominic Hamel, Vasil really came out and sparkled for the Cyclones in 2022. Like Schwartz, he has emerged a higher tier prospect for next season than he had been previously.
- Justin Lasko, RHP: D
- Lasko had moments in 2021 for the Cyclones but looked pretty pedestrian in 2022 and has lost most of his prospect buzz.
- Michel Otanez, RHP: C
- Switched firmly into relief, Otanez failed to pitch well in AAA this season. His numbers in AA were still good and he may get one more chance to break out.
- Brian Metoyer, RHP: C-
- Ranked at 33rd, Metoyer didn’t have much scouting or buzz around his name to begin with and after the season, he still doesn’t.
- Joel Diaz, RHP: C
- The eighteen year old pitcher played a whole season for Port. St. Lucie and failed to catch fire. His numbers for the year were not so bad as too kill his prospect potential though.
- Carlos Rincon, OF: F
- Rincon shouldn’t have been ranked as highly as I had him.
- Jordany Ventura, RHP: D-
- A once promising prospect who has basically dwindled into utter obscurity.
- Luke Ritter, 2B: B
- Like Mangum, Ritter has an age issue moving forward but his season in AA were pretty solid. He’s got a ceiling as a bench player and a closing window to achieve it. The odds are not in Ritter’s favor.
- Dedniel Nunez, RHP: C+
- He switched into relief and gave up too many hits but Nunez wasn’t terrible for AA Binghamton and likely has another chance to make good in 2023.
- Keyshawn Askew, LHP: A
- One of the biggest breakout names for the Mets in 2022. Askew flew up the rankings and deservedly so. While it’s possible that he falls back down them in 2023 if this season proves to be a fluke, the Mets are hoping that their lefty reliever, turned starter, has some impact in his future.
- Scott Ota, OF: F
- Not a prospect to follow anymore.
- Christian Scott, RHP: B-
- Somehow, he pitched better after his promotion. That isn’t a bad thing, but it is a statistical anomaly. Scott’s value is up after the 2022 season but has more climbing to do if he’s to become a relevant prospect.
- Willy Tavares, RHP: D+
- Remember that Tavares once had quite a lot of prospect buzz. His 2022 season isn’t going to reclaim that but he is still hanging onto relevance with his fingernails.
- Wyatt Young, SS: B+
- The Hawaiian shortstop is a surprise success at the upper levels of the minors. It’s still a “too good to be true” scenario for Met fans. Young seems like he could be a valuable bench player if it’s even partially true.
- Carlos Dominguez, 1B: B
- The offensive workhorse of the St. Lucie team. Dominguez will be rising in the rankings after a mostly good 2022 season.
- Jose Acuna, RHP: C-
- On the one hand, he played pretty well. On the other he never played above FCL for the Mets and is now on the Reds.
- Wilmer Reyes, 2B: D
- It was a stretch to call Reyes a prospect and he no longer appears on the Top 50 prospects.
- Dangelo Sarmiento, SS: B
- He fell off the prospect list but could be back before long. Sarmiento had a solid, age seventeen, season in the DSL but needs to do something stateside before I put him back on the list.
- Oscar Rojas, RHP: C+
- He played very well early in the season and move up the rankings but leveled off as the season went on. He’s still a name I’d put on your radar for the start of 2023/
- Javier Atencio, LHP: B+
- One of the better starters for the St. Lucie Mets. He may now be ranked too lowly but that can change if he continues to succeed in 2023.
- Stanley Consuegra, OF: B
- Proving that players can climb, Consuegra had really fallen off the radar before 2022 but managed to climb back into the mix with a solid season. He’s still not ranked in the echelons of true prospects but he’s getting back into that mix.
Regarding Vientos, Ruf (especially), and JD Davis before them, I think it’s entirely possible that the role of DH against LHP is a nearly-impossible task. You just don’t get enough ABs to achieve any rhythm, easily sitting 3-4 games in a row.
It also suggests (to me, at least) that it’s probably a mistake to look at splits and then assume that’s a true indication of what that player might do in a strictly limited role.
Ideally, I think a DH against LHP would also get some semi-regular time against RHP, too, just to stay sharp. That is, the DH wouldn’t be godawful against RHP.
It could be that a well-constructed team wouldn’t have a DH in that narrow role at all, instead swapping in 2-3-4 different regular and semi-regular players to spread out the rest.
This also leads to my Buck conundrum. Again, I love the guy and would give him manager of the year by a landslide. That said, here’s a very smart, informed guy who is willing to pitch his “closer” in the 8th inning. He’s not afraid of thinking outside of the box. Yet in other respects, he clings to narrow roles and platoon splits. Trevor Williams didn’t give up a run for nearly two months, but he couldn’t sniff a close game after the 5th inning, instead forced to watch pitchers who were much less successful attempt to get big outs in the 7th and 8th. Buck adhered to strict roles for Dom Smith and JD Davis, despite evidence that neither were benefitting from the usage pattern. Likewise, Buck pretty much refuses to pitch any of his top relievers in a “losing” effort, even if it’s late and close again teams like the Pirates and Marlins where “keeping it close” might have some value.
Buck sticks to his beliefs. That probably adds a degree of clarity that players appreciate. At the same time, you look at guys in the DH against LHP role, and I don’t think it’s an accident that it’s so hard to perform well. The “role” might be a bigger problem than the actual “player.”
I personally like Darin Ruf and feel he’s a good, proven hitter with real pop. I mean, obviously, he’s been terrible. But I don’t think he’s that bad, just a combination of factors have had a tsunami effect on his production. Oh well!
Sometimes the process can be good — the thinking and strategy sound — but the results don’t live up to expectations. I get why they traded for Ruf and why they stood behind him while he struggled. Because: baseball!
In Vientos’ favor, his numbers against righties aren’t bad either. I just think it was foolish to trade as much as we did for Ruf when ultimately, Vientos was a similar younger player. I think if you wanted to trade Davis for Ruf (straight up) that would have been fine but the Mets wound up tossing in prospects as well.
Regarding Buck: Managing is a tough business and I can’t second guess Showalter because I wouldn’t know where to begin.
Well, as you wrote here yourself, the expectation is that Vientos will struggle and under-perform (based on history).
If Eppler and his staff truly believed that, then the “right” decision was to get Ruf. Maybe they overpaid. Maybe the system is such garbage after the top tier that it really didn’t matter much.
Getting Ruf *seemed* safer than rolling the dice on Vientos.
At the time.
I think the mistake was not trying Vientos sooner, weeks before the deadline, so they could make a better judgment. Of course, many of us were hoping that JD would come around. A great guy and a hard, intelligent worker.
Didn’t happen. Which brings me back to my initial point: DH exclusively against LHP is a nearly impossible role.
Regarding Vientos splits, it doesn’t matter; he’s not pushing Vogelbach out of the lineup.
This is a very interesting conversation about the RHB DH and how it pertains to the Vientos. Alvarez get be the primary DH against LHP and McCann will catch. Alvarez will be the primary catcher I expect that to transpire sometime in the 2023 season. McCann will be an expensive back up but probably one of the best of them. (It isn’t a high bar to achieve) Vientos doesn’t have versatility or skill to be on defense as a regular starter in the field. I agree that an exclusive RHB DH is the toughest job for any team.
Certainly, the Mets’ results with a DH platoon have not been good in 2022. Is that because it’s a DH platoon and not a fielding platoon? Or is it something – platooning – that just isn’t in vogue for the most part nowadays? Yeah, the Giants use it a lot. And the Mets have started to – maybe there are others that I’m unaware of. It still seems like it’s something that’s not done too often by a majority of the clubs.
In that way, it’s a little like a swingman – how can we expect guys to be good in a role that doesn’t exist in many places?
As far as the Mets and the righty platoon DH – I’m not sure that we can make any judgments based on a sample of two.
Ruf has 56 PA in 22 games with the Mets in roughly five weeks. That’s not a ton of playing time but it’s not nothing. There are roughly 26 weeks in an MLB season. He would be on a pace to get in the ballpark of 280 PA at this pace.
My opinion is that it’s not the role of RH DH that’s necessarily the problem. It’s that when we take a small sub-section of that role and imagine that’s what the player would do over the full season in the role.
People get hot and cold throughout the year – whether that’s Alonso or Canha or Escobar or the righty DHs. Shoot, the Mets’ catchers are hot now and who saw that coming?
We saw Wilmer Flores excel in a platoon role as a righty masher for the Mets in 2016 and 2017 – and then we saw him struggle in 2018. He’s bounced back nicely in 2019-21 and back to struggling this year.
Ruf has been awful and I’ve been one of the people calling for a Vientos call up – just to give Showalter an option. But, my belief is that given a 250-300 PA role, with the majority of those coming against LHP – that Ruf would be a positive. Like Flores has shown us, it’s not a guarantee that he would be a positive every year. But, mostly a positive.
I don’t think the system is or was as garbage as some folks suggest. I shake my head at some of the deals people got for really questionable talent. I can’t imagine the Mets couldn’t have matched what the Astros offered for Christian Vasquez.
I’ll agree Ruf seemed safer but since he’s signed through 2023 which means $3 Million less to spend on the multitude of pitchers the Mets need far more than a DH who doesn’t hit righties.
When the Mets DFA’d Plummer, for example, a guy I’d seen ranked as high as 8th (believe you had him 10th), and all of MLB passed on him on waivers, it told us plenty about how actual teams and actual scouts think about our prospects. More and more, I think the numbers and rankings of prospects are way out of sync with what teams see and value.
There are two things that I believe are a big problem with a lot of prospect lists. And those are not taking into account MLB role or how old the prospect is.
It was pretty clear to me that odds were stacked against either Lee or Plummer being MLB regulars. So, what’s the proper placement of a guy with an upside of fourth outfielder? And both of those guys, if they were to make it as fourth outfielders, it would be because of their bat. At least with a guy like Jake Mangum – you can project him as a 4th OF because of his glove. The glove’s going to play in Double-A, it’s going to play in Triple-A and it’s going to play in the majors.
With Lee and Plummer there were serious question if their bat was even going to play in Triple-A. How do you take that knowledge and make the guys top 10 prospects? Even in a system as shallow as the Mets?
I did something different in my rankings this year – I did it in tiers. Lee and Plummer were in the third tier, with 18 guys in the tiers ahead of them. It’s one of the few things I got right.
The Mets need a big bat in the middle of the lineup. Someone who could DH and play some in the field. The problem with Vientos is that he would be a liability in the field. Or I would also be good with giving your position players some time at DH. That being said, you need good backups. Can’t see Vogelbach playing the field either.
Too bad we traded Pete Crow. He could have been a nice fit on this team.