Mets Minors: Carlos Cortes and Jaylen Palmer nearly fall off the top 50

At the beginning of 2022 Carlos Cortes ranked 9th and Jaylen Palmer ranked 15th amongst the Top 50 rankings. Fast forward to the end of the season and both players are now almost completely off the Top 50 entirely. Why had they been ranked so highly and what happened to make their value nearly fall off the charts?

Carlos Cortes is presently 25 years old which doesn’t rule him out of being a prospect but does accelerate his clock for proving himself quite a bit. Cortes has always been thought of as a bat first player who, at 5’7” and throwing left-handed, didn’t fit well into any position. He played leftfield to lackluster reviews and it was always thought that it would need to be his bat that paved his path to the majors.

Back in 2021, his bat looked to be a legitimate threat. He played 79 games in AA Binghamton and hit for a robust .819 OPS with solid power, especially for someone under 5’10”. Flash forward to 2022 and he began the year in AAA so poorly that he was demoted back to Binghamton where his numbers were still below those of previous seasons. The reality is, that he doesn’t look to hit enough or field enough to even have a future as an MLB bench player and that lack of ceiling makes it hard for him to factor into the team’s Top 50.

Jaylen Palmer is only 22 and scouts love his raw abilities and size. Surely his ceiling could not have evaporated so quickly. Unfortunately for Palmer he suffers by comparison. Normally when this happens, we’re comparing a player to a similar one who is playing well. In Palmer’s case he winds up compared to a certain Shervyen Newton.

A player cannot be relevant if they cannot get hits and Palmer’s .184 batting average in Advanced A combined with him striking out almost 1.5 times per game played make him a combination that it’s hard to predict any success for. 2022 saw Palmer transition completely away from shortstop (6’4” shortstops are the exception, not the rule) to third base and the outfield and he did play well in the outfield. The issue is if Palmer can ever put enough bat on the ball to make it matter. His .642 OPS points to some possible brighter future and that brings us to an important point.

A Top Prospect list is constantly evolving and changing as baseball happens. The list below will likely even change during the offseason despite nobody really playing. Both Cortes and Palmer are a strong month away from climbing significantly. It’s all a matter of perceived future value and they both fell victim to disappointing their projections.
Postseason Top 50

1. Francisco Alvarez, C: Alvarez is a good enough hitter to begin the year in the majors but the Mets wished to be cautious about exposing him too soon. There is still a chance that this changes with the poor output from Darin Ruf and Mark Vientos but that remains to be seen. With James McCann set to return and Tomas Nido still under arbitration the Mets have the flexibility to give Alvarez time to prove his bat can club AAA pitching the way he crushed AA, Advanced A, Low A and all the other levels. I would be highly surprised if Alvarez doesn’t finish the 2023 season with the New York Mets in Queens. He’s just too good a hitter and the aforementioned options are not. (2023 Prediction – AAA with mid-year promotion to MLB. End the year as the Mets starting catcher and DH)
2. Brett Baty, 3B: Baty got his look in Queens and even had a pair of memorable homers to hang his hat on before getting injured. It makes sense for the Mets to want to use him on their roster in 2023 but there are two reasons he may not. The number one reason is Eduardo Escobar, who remembered late in 2022 that he’s actually a good hitter and has given the Mets reason to plan for his role in 2023. The other reason is actually Brandon Nimmo. With Escobar and Jeff McNeil hitting, the Mets are not going to shift either of them out of a starting role. If the Mets also (My heart says they have to and my head says they can’t) bring back their excellent center fielder, there is no room for Baty on the team at all. (2023 Prediction – Breaks camp with MLB team and stays there)
3. Kevin Parada, C: What can you learn from 40 minor league at bats? Not very much. Still, Parada’s taste of the FCL and St. Lucie was very promising as he did manage a considerable .880 OPS in his time there. Again, this is a small sample size but you have to like what he showed. Because he’s a collegiate prospect, I’d also expect him to get assigned to Advanced A Brooklyn, which seems like it will be overloaded with talent next season. (2023 Prediction – Begins the year with Advanced A Brooklyn and could earn a mid-season promotion to AA)
4. Mark Vientos, 3B: Where the Mets will find room for Baty if room can be found, I think the Mets still want to find some additional use for Vientos moving forward. It’s very possible that the Mets keep Vientos as their DH and enjoy the dividends I expect to pay out after his growing pains. It just seems, especially if Darin Ruf is not discarded, that the Mets may opt to send him back to AAA where he can focus on playing the outfield to see how viable the idea is. (2023 Prediction – AAA to see about finding a role in the field but winds up in Queens for a significant portion of the year)
5. Alexander Ramirez, CF: Ramirez played mostly well enough in Advanced A to have earned his way into AA to begin 2023 but the Mets may want to play it a little slow with their budding prospect who may flourish better closer to Queens and amongst the potentially devastating Brooklyn lineup. The biggest thing that Ramirez needs to take the next step towards stardom is plate control and you know that the coaches will be doing all they can. As we’ve seen with other prospects, it’s not always something you can teach. (2023 Prediction – Advanced A with mid-year promotion to AA, he should finish the year with AA)
6. Ronny Mauricio, SS: Speaking of not being able to teach plate discipline, we come to Ronny Mauricio. The shortstop prospect is ending the season on a high note and probably gets too much criticism for his pretty solid 2022 campaign. Any shortstop, he’s still handling the position despite his size, who can hit 26 home runs is nothing to sneeze at and his 20 stolen bases are nothing to sneeze at. The Mets still won’t have anywhere for him to play for a very long time. I have him getting the promotion to AAA where he should be backed up by, at least, Baty or Vientos and Alvarez or Senger. With Lindor on the team, Ramirez remains the most tradeable quality prospect on the roster. (2023 Prediction – AAA with MLB promotion possible if Lindor is hurt but he finishes the year in another franchise)
7. Jett Williams, SS: The Mets second best shortstop in the system lines up a little better with the All Star presently blocking the position. Williams played out his 2022 debut with the FCL Mets and played very well while showing off his amazing speed on the bases. Williams stole 6 bases in only 10 games and wasn’t caught in the act a single time. Williams is only 18 and it would make sense for the Mets to take it a little slower with him by beginning his season in Low A St. Lucie. (2023 Prediction – Begins the year with Low A St. Lucie and could end it in Brooklyn if he performs well)
8. Matt Allan, RHP: The Mets snagged Allan as part of a very strong draft by Brodie Van Waggenen and Allan looked like he had the makings of a front-line starter. Unfortunately he was injured and has missed a significant chunk of playing time to his recovery. Many scouts have lowered Allan on their Met depth charts below here but assuming he is the pitcher he was he still has the highest ceiling of any prospect pitcher in the organization. Allan could start lower than Advanced A as it might be looked at as rehab but assuming he gets a full spring he should be able to go straight to Brooklyn. (2023 Prediction – Advanced A with early promotion to AA the Mets need him to make up for lost time)
9. Blade Tidwell, RHP: The Mets third selection in the 2022 draft was also one of their best. Tidwell had the makings of a first round pick and teams were scared off by some injury concerns. If those are fully shaken off he could be another front-end starter for the team. It’s possible that he begins the year in Port St. Lucie but I’m expecting him to be a part of the star studded Brooklyn team. (2023 Prediction – Begins the year with Advanced A Brooklyn)
10. Dominic Hamel, RHP: One of the darlings of 2022. Hamel had a successful run in Advanced A and is pretty well aligned to get the nod to head onto AA for the next season. The Mets would love to have some other players join him there soon. Hamel was one of the best performing Met prospect pitchers in 2022 and we may see some regression in 2023 with him facing a higher level but I’m hopeful he continues to exceed expectations. (2023 Prediction – Begins and ends the year with AA Binghamton)
11. Calvin Ziegler, RHP: The player who entered 2022 as the top healthy pitcher in the organization had a successful, albeit human, season. Ziegler easily pitched well enough to earn a graduation to Advanced A for 2023 where he will join a very talented squad of pitchers in Brooklyn. (2023 Prediction – Begins the year with Advanced A Brooklyn)
12. Bryce Montes de Oca, RHP: Before the 2022 season this relief pitcher was hardly known among prospects. Being an absolute fireballer can turn that around in a hurry and if he manages to hone his control, he could be truly devastating. The Mets will lose a lot of pitchers in the offseason but the Mets may not want to risk Montes de Oca having a firm hold of a bullpen spot but he’ll be in the mix. (2023 Prediction – AAA taxi squad member to Queens)
13. Hayden Senger, C: Senger had a solid season for AA Binghamton this past season. The future backup catcher didn’t do anything to wow the world but that also isn’t what the Mets need from him. If Alvarez is in the majors, he and Nick Meyer should both be in AAA. (2023 Prediction – Senger will be in AAA and can be called up if injuries occur at the major league level.)
14. Jose Butto, RHP: The 2022 season was quite good for Butto who rose from AA to make a spot start in the majors. Butto is a back-end starter but he’s been healthy and will be a valuable pitcher for any team that finds themselves in need of starting pitcher innings. Butto will be hanging back in AAA and should be a backup option for the Mets 2023 rotation. (2023 Prediction – AAAA Taxi Squad.)
15. Nick Morabito, OF: The 75th overall draft pick was not amongst my personal favorites the Mets selected in 2022. His brief debut in the FCL was also less than stellar but he profiles as being a solid outfield prospect, albeit not one with a phenomenal ceiling. He should begin the year in Low A and we’ll wait and see what his stats in 2023 dictate. (2023 Prediction – Assigned to Port St. Lucie.)
16. Willy Fanas, OF: DSL stats are hard to interpret or have faith in and Fanas’ numbers in 2022 were mediocre. It’s possible that Fanas plays in Low A St. Lucie but he could be sent to repeat the DSL or be assigned to the FCL. (2023 Prediction – FCL Mets)
17. J.T. Scwartz, 1B: Schwartz spent the 2022 season in Brooklyn and bounced around the latter half of the Mets Top 20. His stats showed an upward trend over the course of the year and he will hopefully continue next year in Binghamton. (2023 Prediction – A full season with AA Binghamton.)
18. Keyshawn Askew, LHP: The Mets had this lefty begin the year as a reliever in Low A St. Lucie but would promote him to Brooklyn and eventually shift him into a starting role. Through all of these changes, Askew managed to perform well and rocketed up from obscurity to The Top 20. His 2023 is a bit unsure because of how ranging his 2022 season was. The best place for him to grow would be in the Advanced A rotation but there are a lot of pitchers slotted to begin the year there. Askew might get pushed to AA because of a lack of room or he might return to the bullpen where he already has shown strong success. (2023 Prediction – Advanced A starting rotation with mid-season promotion to AA.)
19. Jacob Reimer, 3B: The Mets picked up a quality player in Reimer with the 119th overall draft pick. Reimer was quite good in his FCL debut. Those seven games don’t mean that much but do indicate that he is bound for full season baseball in 2023. He is a bit young to go beyond Port. St. Lucie but if he hits for above a .800 OPS next season a mid-season promotion is guaranteed. (2023 Prediction – Low A St. Lucie with a promotion possible.)
20. Jose Peroza, 3B: Peroza is not the most physically imposing player but he’s a solid hitter who can play both second and third base. His season was a touch streaky with his numbers bouncing from poor to good on a seemingly monthly basis. His challenge will be to hit consistently as he ascends to AA in 2023. (2023 Prediction – AA Binghamton.)
21. Robert Dominguez, RHP: Dominguez gets his position this high based almost solely on his original international scouting. He pitched poorly in 2021 and not at all in 2022 but a pitcher with his raw stuff is not to be discarded lightly. (2023 Prediction – He will hopefully be healthy to begin the year with Low A Port St. Lucie.)
22. Khalil Lee, CF: Lee’s clock on being a prospect is basically expired but his performance in the minors is too hard to completely ignore. In AAA, Lee looks like he could become a major league outfielder with some speed and power but every time he comes to the majors he cannot get on base enough to make even a bench role make sense. (2023 Prediction – Another year in AAA with occasional chances to perform in the majors.)
23. Simon Juan, OF: Simon Juan was the #1 international prospect to start the year but, as bad as Fanas was in the DSL, Juan was worse. The DSL stats don’t mean that much and we’ll see if he can turn them around in 2023. (2023 Prediction – FCL Mets.)
24. Nick Plummer, OF: Where Lee’s clock is basically run out. Plummer’s clock already has. At 26 Plummer will likely fall off the Top 50 list like free-fall unless something finally clicks and he explodes back into relevance. (2023 Prediction – AAA Syracuse until he falls off the 40 man roster.)
25. Mike Vasil, RHP: The Mets assigned Vasil to Port St. Lucie, but quickly promoted him to Advanced A after 37.0 innings of excellent baseball. While his ERA did go up substantially his K-rate also rose. And his Opp Avg and WHIP didn’t balloon to badly. All and all, it was a successful stint in Brooklyn and likely earns Vasil a chance to begin 2023 in AA. Before you get too excited he profiles as a back of the rotation starter. (2023 Prediction – AA Binghamton.)
26. Brandon McIlwain, OF: He began the year in Advanced A Brooklyn and earned a promotion to AA by hitting to the tune of a .861 OPS. He played out the final three months in AA but looked badly overmatched. He should be getting another look in AA to begin the 2023 season and hopefully finds his footing. (2023 Prediction – AA Binghamton)
27. Eric Orze, RHP: The Mets are losing Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Adam Ottavino and even Trevor Williams at the end of the 2022 season. This means that while the Mets will be spending to rebuild the bullpen, some amount of prospects from the minors will be getting a shot. Eric Orze will be a candidate among that number and ranks this high because of his proximity to the majors. He likely has to prove himself in 2023 to retain any value moving forward. (2023 Prediction – MLB Middle Reliever.)
28. D’Andre Smith, IF: While I wasn’t enthusiastic about Smith when he was drafted, The young infielder did look pretty good in his 15 game audition with Port St. Lucie. His batting average was only a .220 but the small infielder had a .440 SLG which earned him a .738 OPS overall. He should be the starting the year with Brooklyn based on his age and a solid debut. (2023 Prediction – Advanced A Brooklyn.)
29. Jonah Tong, RHP/OF: Tong was assigned to the FCL but didn’t see any game action. This means that we don’t know, officially, if the Mets will be using Tong as a pitcher or an outfielder but the easy money is on pitching. I expect Tong to join the Port St. Lucie rotation to begin the 2023 season. (2023 Prediction – Low A Port St. Lucie.)
30. Jake Mangum, CF: If the Mets are sensible and drop Darin Ruf, the Mets can have Mark Vientos continue to play in the majors as the minority platoon-mate for Daniel Vogelbach and occasional third baseman. If not, the Mets will have too many outfielders on their AAA roster (Nick Plummer or Khalil Lee could also be gone). Mangum’s clock to the majors really is over but having not gotten a chance yet in the MLB there are some who are higher on his future than Plummer or Lee. Mangum should get a chance to reach the majors in a bench capacity in 2023. (2023 Prediction – AAA Syracuse with time in the majors.)
31. Luke Ritter, 2B: Like Mangum, Ritter’s clock is already ringing but his ranking reflects some positive moments from 2022. He really did make some strides playing for AA Binghamton, though he doesn’t seem likely to have an MLB future. (2023 Prediction – AAA Syracuse.)
32. Nick Meyer, C: If Meyer were a better defensive player he’d be ranked much higher. It’s not to say that Meyer is a bad catcher but being a tick above Senger’s offensive production and a tick below his defense makes him a worse candidate to be the future backup catcher. (2023 Prediction – AAA Syracuse.)
33. Junior Tillien, SS: The 20 year old shortstop had a few moments of looking like a star in 2022 but finished the year as a solid middling prospect for Port St. Lucie. His ceiling is still murky but his chances of starting are an extreme longshot. (2023 Prediction – Advanced A Brooklyn.)
34. Carlos Dominguez, OF: One of the most consistent hitters for the St. Lucie Mets, Dominguez would rank higher if he were younger or bigger. The outfielder hit 20 hime runs in 2022 and should continue to rise in the minors if his power proves legitimate. (2023 Prediction – Advanced A Brooklyn.)
35. Tony Dibrell, RHP: After returning from injury, the results were not fantastic for Dibrell whose prospect stock is questionable at best. 2023 is a make or break year for the pitcher to prove if he can cut it as even a AAAA backup starter. (2023 Prediction – AAA Syracuse.)
36. Oscar Rojas, RHP: There were a few weeks where Rojas looked like he was breaking out before the pitcher crashed back to earth. He only had one full inning in AA for the year and it did not go well. (2023 Prediction – AA Binghamton.)
37. Stanley Consuegra, OF: It was nice to see a prospect who had fallen off the list climb back to relevance in 2022. Consuegra was a little old for Advanced A Brooklyn but hit his way into a promotion to Binghamton where his numbers leveled off a bit. He’ll repeat AA in 2023 and will hopefully find his footing there too. He could be a rising name in the organization. (2023 Prediction – AA Binghamton.)
38. Dedniel Nunez, RHP: The transition to the bullpen went well for Nunez but his prospect clock has little time left on it already. The player who will be turning 27 in June needs to show he can be a major leaguer soon or he’s off the list. (2023 Prediction – AAA Syracuse.)
39. Wyatt Young, SS: Young was a bit of a 2022 surprise but it’s hard to predict a major league career for the small infielder. He played well in both AAA and AA during the year and should be returning to AAA where Mauricio will be forcing him over to second base. (2023 Prediction – AAA Syracuse.)
40. Christian Scott, RHP: Scott’s 2022 was okay and he actually performed better after his promotion to Advanced A Brooklyn. Scott is already 23 and will be pushed to move ahead because of other younger players surrounding him. (2023 Prediction – AA Binghamton but he could get demoted if one of the higher ceiling prospects needs a AA spot.)
41. Tyler Stuart, RHP: Things did not go well in the 3.2 innings Stuart pitched for Port St. Lucie but he’ll get a chance to turn things around in 2023. (2023 Prediction – Low A St. Lucie with a hopefully quick promotion to Advanced A.)
42. Jawilme Ramirez, RHP: A player who was not on my radar whose 2022 season really jumps out. Ramirez had a 0.78 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP for the Port St. Lucie Mets pitching both in relief and as a starter. He should be starting for Brooklyn in 2023. (2023 Prediction – Advanced A Brooklyn.)
43. Michel Otanez, RHP: The once promising pitcher is looking at his last chance to make himself useful as he returns in a relief role for Syracuse. (2023 Prediction – AAA Syracuse.)
44. Joel Diaz, RHP: The numbers in Port St. Lucie were not fantastic but pitching at only 18 years of age, they also were not bad. I’d like to see him repeat St. Lucie and see what another year of maturity brings him. (2023 Prediction – Low A St. Lucie.)
45. Dangelo Sarmiento, SS: More talk about the DSL and hating evaluating players based on their numbers from the league. Unlike Fanas and Juan, Sarmiento played well in the DSL and should be the starting shortstop for the FCL Mets. (2023 Prediction – FCL Mets.)
46. Javier Atencio, LHP: The lefty had a nice year for St. Lucie and should have a role in the rotation for the Cyclones in 2023. (2023 Prediction – Advanced A Brooklyn.)
47. Jesus Baez, SS: Another shortstop who played well in the DSL for the Mets. He should join Sarmiento in the FCL and fight it out to be the starting shortstop. (2023 Prediction – FCL Mets.)
48. Vincent Perozo, C: A strong FCL debut earned him a promotion to Low A St. Lucie. He struggled after promotion but there is reason to dream about the young catcher. Mind that it’s only a dream. (2023 Predction – Low A St. Lucie.)
49. Jaylen Palmer, 3B/OF: The age is still on his side but it won’t be for long. (2023 Prediction – Advanced A Brooklyn.)
50. Carlos Cortes, OF/DH: If Cortes fails in AAA again, he’s just done. (2023 Prediction – AAA Syracuse.)