Biography:
The Mets selected Hamel as part of their debacle of a draft in 2021. The right handed pitcher wasn’t a prototypical Met prospect pitcher as he lacked a truly high velocity arm but scouts felt he made up for it with a good Spin Rate. Despite being selected in the third round of the Mets draft he was ranked higher than Calvin Ziegler based on scouting and prospect ranking.
Resume:
Hamel pitched three innings in the 2021 season and managed 7 strikeouts in only 3.0 innings of work. This small sample wasn’t enough to judge him by but it was a nice thing to see.
In 2022 the Mets were cautious and had Hamel begin the year in Port St. Lucie. In 14 games at this level Hamel produced Ace-like K/9 numbers while showing good command. He was given a mid-season promotion to Brooklyn for his final 11 games and saw his numbers improve with an even better k rate and lower WHIP.
Pitching:
Control:
Hamel was not thought of as a “Control” pitcher when he was drafted but the early results show a nice command of his “high spin” pitches which bodes well for Hamel’s continued development.
Power:
His fastball sits in the lower-mid 90s most of the time and his breaking pitches sit in the 80s but he is getting strong strikeout numbers anyway.
Stuff:
Buzz words like “Spin Rate” are very big in the scouting community but what they amount to is movement. Hamel generates good movement on his pitches and it is this, rather than his velocity that get him strikeouts. This can sometimes lead to control issues but that was not the case in his first full minor league season.
Fielding:
The numbers were not great but nothing staggering to make anyone overly concerned.
Outlook:
With Jose Butto as the only “prospect” higher in the minors the Mets are expected to assign Hamel to AA Binghamton where they hope he can break out. A break out in AA would amount to his numbers from 2022 proving to be legitimate and continuing the same level of success. Hamel scouted as a back-end rotation pitcher but is currently performing as and front-end caliber pitcher. If he can prove to be the latter he will rocket up into a Top 5 position quickly.
This is a player who has to prove it to me. It’s one thing to put up numbers as an older guy in lower levels. But Double-A — assuming that’s where he starts the year, which is not a given — should be more of a test.
The numbers he posted in Brooklyn last year were very good. But Brooklyn is a pretty good pitcher’s park and Binghamton’s not known as a pitcher’s paradise.
I’m a bear when it comes to Hamel. Hope he proves me wrong.
With another setback for Allan the bright spots for prospect pitchers are few and far between.
But it doesn’t take much to turn perception around.
I’m bearish on Hamel and Vasil, although they have their supporters. But what if Tidwell and Ziegler come thru this year? That will change perception if two 2nd-round picks come thru. And what if some under-the-radar guy, say, Javier Atencio or Jawilme Ramirez or Jordany Ventura puts up a good year, too?
My opinion is that the pitching isn’t as bleak as some make it out to be.
The Achilles Heel to the Mets farm system is that they have no pitching to speak of. With Matt Allan on the shelf for another year to 18 months, the cupboard is simply bare. The only reason Dominic Hamel is even on the radar is because there is no better option.
This situation is in stark contrast to how the Mets have historically been built: pitching first.
They might be able to trade from strength, but don’t count on it. Any team that has promising starting pitching in their minor league system is holding on to it for dear life.
Free agency is another avenue to acquire pitching, but quality starters cost a king’s ransom.
Pitching is certainly a concern for the longevity of the team as I don’t see any pitcher on the farm who strikes me as an Ace.