The wheeling and dealing of the offseason is done and the Mets are approaching the 2023 Season with a number of new International signees and some of the better offensive prospects in baseball. The Top 50 is constantly evolving, though the Top 10 tends to stay relatively stable unless there is an injury or a draft.

1. Francisco Alvarez, C
2. Brett Baty, 3B
3. Kevin Parada, C
4. Ronny Mauricio, SS/3B
5. Alexander Ramirez, CF
6. Mark Vientos, 3B/DH
7. Jett Williams, SS
8. Blade Tidwell, RHP
9. Dominic Hamel, RHP
10. Daiverson Gutierez, C

The Top 10:

Nobody should be terribly surprised by any of the names in the Top 10 with only one name being remotely controversial. Francisco Alvarez is firmly the top prospect with Brett Baty and Kevin Parada entrenched behind. The interesting thing we’ve seen this Spring is how ready for the majors the bats of Baty, Mauricio and Vientos have all looked. The Mets seem inclined to give Ruf a chance to show them something but the Mets have far better options on the table.

Another interesting item on the Mets horizon is Shohei Ohtani. The best overall player in baseball will not come to the East coast easily and hoping to lure him in the offseason is hardly a sure thing. A lot of fans don’t want to trade prospects for a rental but the only way I see the Mets prying Ohtani away from the West Coast is by doing a trade and sign. To this end I think that only Alvarez is fully out of the picture and that Brett Baty might be looking that way as well. There is plenty of possibility to the Mets trading one of Parada, Mauricio or Ramirez to make a deal happen.

To the “controversial” name on this Top 10. Daiverson Gutierez was the Mets top international signee this offseason and he has been compared favorably to Francisco Alvarez. If he gets close to being that good, he’d be a steal for the Mets organization who has typically scouted the international market well.

The name not on this list is sadly Matt Allan who has suffered yet another setback and has been dropped in the rankings significantly.

11. Calvin Ziegler, RHP
12. Anthony Baptist, OF
13. Mike Vasil, RHP
14. Bryce Montes de Oca, RHP
15. Jacob Reimer, 3B
16. Jose Butto, RHP
17. Willy Fanas, OF
18. Nick Morabito, OF
19. Joel Diaz, RHP
20. Hayden Senger, C

The Top 20:
Outside of the Top 10, you start to see the pundits own preferences take shape as the player ranking becomes less definite. Many lists will have Hamel lower and Morabito higher and almost no Top Prospect lists will have Senger clinging to a spot. This has to do with how my prospects are weighted and there is significant stock in MLB likelihood. This puts players like Butto, Montes de Oca and Senger on higher footing than higher ceiling names like Diaz, Juan, Dominguez and others.

The newly signed international name in this group is Baptist. He profiles as a plus defender in center field with very good speed and decent contact mechanics. The question will always be if he makes enough contact to make the other skills matter.

Many lists you will read will have Morabito ranked higher, based on his draft position. Personally, I think Morabito might belong lower on these rankings than I currently have him. It’s a case where I fail to see how the floor and ceiling justify much in the way of impact potential. You will note that I pointedly rank Reimer for this very reason. Morabito felt like a draft pick with the ceiling of a fourth outfielder.

21. J.T. Schwartz, 1B
22. Grant Hartwig, RHP
23. Cristopher Larez, SS
24. Jose Peroza, 3B
25. Simon Juan, OF
26. Eric Orze, RHP
27. Matt Allan, RHP
28. Javier Atencio, LHP
29. Stanley Consuegra, OF
30. Robert Dominguez, RHP

Top 30:

Players in this grouping begin to shift from major league trajectories to potential ceilings of talent (with a few exceptions). Schwartz, Peroza, Orze and Hartwig all fit the bill categorically as being on target to actually reach the majors without being heavy impact players. Names like Larez, Juan, Atencio and Dominguez have a lot more mystique to them, as they could be star players but they also could wash out before reaching AA.

Christopher Larez is the third higher profile international name on this list. He comes along with the dreaded “Five Tool Player” expectations. If all five of those tools are for real, he should rocket through these rankings quickly.

Hartwig is an interesting player for a Top Prospect list. He is 25 and first appeared in the minors in 2021. In 2022, he played in Low A, Advanced A, AA and AAA and looked fairly excellent at each of these stops. Hartwig could be a flash in the pan but he’s worth noting. This Spring has seen Hartwig continuing to look major league ready and I think it’s only a matter of time before he’s in Queens. Notable as well, is Allan who is dropped by 20 ranks thanks to another lost season. It isn’t Allan’s fault but his future is looking ever dimmer.

31. Christian Scott, RHP/1B/3B
32. Wyatt Young, SS
33. Brandon McIlwain, OF
34. D’Andre Smith, IF
35. Oscar Rojas, RHP
36. Daviel Hurtado, LHP
37. Jesus Baez, SS
38. William Lugo, IF
39. Luis Rodriguez. LHP
40. Nick Meyer, C

Top 40:

Again, a number of players fall to the writer’s own personal evaluations and biases. Khalil Lee was originally ranked within this group, which was already a significant drop from last year. He is now no longer ranked in the prospect list at all. Domestic violence is not okay, end of statement. You will also see a few more of the high-ceiling prospect longshots like Lugo (the infielder) and Luis Rodriguez (the lefty). Hurtado was another slightly more notable name from the international signee list.

Young is a player who intrigues in this group. Young played an assortment of games for AAA, AA and Advanced A in 2022 and played particularly well at the highest level. He’s 23 and plays solid defense. The Mets don’t seem to have a lot of stock in the left-handed hitting Hawaiian infielder but he could have an MLB future ahead of himself anyway.

41. Carlos Dominguez, OF
42. Daniel Juarez, LHP
43. William Lugo, LHP
44. Heriberto Rincon, OF
45. D’angelo Sarmiento, SS
46. Enderson Ascencio, OF
47. Jawilme Ramirez, RHP
48. Luis Rodriguez, RHP
49. Keiver Garcia, SS
50. Carlos Cortes, LF

Top 50:

Down this far in the rankings the priorities shift. Lower ceiling players who have a shot of the majors have, for the most part, been named and the list gives way to youth and international long shots. Four of these players are fresh international signees and many of these players will fall from the Top 50, never to be seen again. You will note two names who are presently dropped from the list entirely whom you might have been expecting. Cortes and Jaylen Palmer were both off the list and hovering just below. Cortes jumps back onto the Top 50 thanks to Lee’s departure but he has to hit in AAA and, ideally, needs to find a position he can play. Palmer needs to strike out a lot less and make contact a lot more.

3 comments on “Mets Minors: Spring Training top 50

  • Brian Joura

    It’s not easy to make a top 50 list and I appreciate the work you put into this.

    One thing I’m looking at in all of the prospect lists that I read is the relative placement of Dominic Hamel and Calvin Ziegler. You have Hamel rated higher. What do you hope to see from Hamel in 2023? How do you view his upside compared to that of Tylor Megill and David Peterson?

    Finally, thoughts on Ziegler and his chance to get his BB rate under control?

    • deegrove84

      Ziegler is younger, and four years is not an insubstantial amount. If you look at the other stats then Hamel is clearly the favorite with more innings pitched, at a higher level, better control, very solid k-rate etc. Ziegler showed me that he belonged on the radar last year but Hamel showed me statistics that hinted at impact.

      Expectations are big here:
      For Hamel to stay where he is in the rankings he needs to show similar success in AA. For him to improve he needs to advance all the way to AAA. This means his WHIP and K/9 don’t show diminished returns.

      For Ziegler he can play his entire season in Advanced A and only needs to show small improvement to hold onto his ranking. Ziegler could easily leapfrog Hamel by cutting down that walk rate but that is easier said than done.

      Hamel’s upside is actually pretty similar to a Tylor Megill in a lot of ways. Hamel could be a rotation pitcher on many MLB teams but will likely rank as a depth starter on the Mets because of our present spending.

  • NYM6986

    Thanks for this compilation. It’s hard to see the entire prospect list without something as thorough as this.

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