The New York Mets have two multiple Cy Young winners on top of their starting rotation in Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. With that, came high expectations for this season.
So far this year, both of them have had their up and down moments on the mound. Both of them missed some time with injuries. And both of them had some dominating and rocky starts mixed in so far in 2023.
Not to mention, both Verlander and Scherzer are up there in age at 40 and 38 respectively. So as great as they’ve been throughout their Hall of Fame bound careers, there are some concerns for both of them, especially down the stretch in a 162-game season.
So with that in mind, the big question will be. Which Mets ace is more trustworthy, especially towards the end of the season?
Let’s break down both Scherzer and Verlander, in how they have fared so far this season and in the last few years.
Let’s start with Scherzer. Last season was his first year with the Mets. Overall, he had a good year in 2022, with a 11-5 record and a 2.29 ERA. He did go on the IL twice last season. He missed a couple months with an oblique injury in May and June. And he missed a couple weeks in September with some fatigue near his oblique. That might’ve affected Scherzer down the stretch.
He lost his final regular season start vs the Atlanta Braves, giving up 4 runs, 9 hits and 2 home runs in 5.2 innings. And in Game 1 of the National League Wild Card game against the San Diego Padres, Scherzer got lit up, giving up 7 runs and 4 home runs in 4.2 innings, contributing to the Mets late season swoon.
The year before, in 2021 while with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Scherzer was also affected by fatigue in his pitching arm during the playoffs. He missed his scheduled Game 6 start vs the Braves in the NL Championship Series, and the Dodgers ended up losing that game and the series.
This season with the Mets, Scherzer already missed a few starts with various ailments. Then there was also his 10-game suspension over his use of the rosin on his hand. Scherzer struggled in his start back from suspension, against the Detroit Tigers, giving up 6 runs. But he has improved with each start and his last start, was his best one at Coors Field, giving up only one run, on 8 Ks in 7 innings.
As for Verlander, last season was his third Cy Young season, while pitching for the Houston Astros. He was splendid in 2022, going 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA and helped the Astros win their second World Series title in the last six years.
Verlander signed with the Mets as a free agent on December 2022. Verlander started the 2023 season with the Mets on the injured list with a “low-grade teres major strain.” He returned to the mound on May 4. So far this season, Verlander is 2-2 with a 4.80 ERA. He’s had two starts where he gave up 6 runs in each game, and he has also had two starts where he pitched at least into the seventh inning, giving up only one run in each game.
So both Scherzer and Verlander this season so far, have been inconsistent on the mound and have had their share of injuries. Their pedigrees and the strong starts that we’ve seen from them, still gives Mets fans hope for more dominance from them. But both of their ages, always brings some concern to not only their health, but whether they can be effective down the stretch and into the playoffs.
So the question once again is: who is more trustworthy? Scherzer or Verlander?
It’s a close call, but Verlander gets a slight edge for various reasons.
Despite being a year older, Verlander has been a little more durable. Outside of his Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for all of 2021 and the teres major strain that put him out for all of April this year, Verlander has been injury free over the last several years. Other than 2021 and the COVID shortened 2020 season, he has made at least 28 starts every year since 2016.
Scherzer hasn’t had any major injuries but he recently has had a little more minor ones. Like the oblique injury last season that sidelined him for two months. This season, his shoulder has kept him out for a start.
Back to durability, Verlander has pitched in the playoffs when healthy and unlike Scherzer, hasn’t shown any fatigue signs in September and October. Part of the reason could possibly be that Scherzer shows more intensity on the mound with his grunts. Whereas Verlander seems more fluid in his pitching delivery and while he still throws hard, it doesn’t look like he exerts the same amount of force that Scherzer does.
Finally velocity wise, Scherzer’s fastball this season, has hovered around 93 and 94 mph. Verlander’s fastball still reaches in the mid 90s at 95 to 96 mph. Both of them still have strong secondary stuffs that makes them hard to hit. But Verlander’s slight velocity edge gives him more room to dominate more.
Scherzer and Verlander may not consistently dominate as they used to, due to their ages. But both of them have shown at times that they can still bring out the best of them and they will definitely be crucial to the Mets success this year at the top of their rotation.
Both can still be trusted as aces, but based on more durability and velocity, Verlander is slightly more trustworthy.
It’s an interesting question and not one that I’m sure we can answer except in hindsight.
I’ve seen Scherzer put up four straight good starts for the Mets this year, along with a season long 2.29 ERA last year. Say that again — 2.29 — that’s outstanding. I look forward to Verlander pitching that well for the Mets.
Great question. Very different pitchers and personalities. Too close to call for me but they need both to be trustworthy through the fall to get to the classic. That’s a tall order.
With error bars, it’s a draw. I give all the credit in the world to Verlander for roughing out last night, but 117 p for 6 innings is really rough. Right now both have great history and total guts but we are seeing the 38+ yo arms are clearly sliding down the cliff