We have reached the beginning of the Short Season minors and the minor leagues are finally in full swing. Now that we’re here I am going to check in on each of the Top 10 Prospects as ranked before the season began. For those that don’t remember:
1. Francisco Alvarez, C
2. Brett Baty, 3B
3. Kevin Parada, C
4. Ronny Mauricio, SS/3B/2B/LF
5. Alexander Ramirez, OF
6. Mark Vientos, 1B/3B/DH
7. Jett Williams, SS
8. Blade Tidwell, RHP
9. Dominic Hamel, RHP
10. Daiverson Gutierez, C
Francisco Alvarez – The 21-year-old catcher is putting together a campaign for Rookie of the Year and may achieve it at the rate he’s going. 140 at bats into the season he has 12 home runs and is currently shattering expectations. He has struck out 36 times in 40 games and he isn’t walking as much as we hope he will. Through his time in the minors, Alvarez has averaged an OBP about 100 points higher than his batting average and right now he’s sitting at a lowly 50 point difference. This is the difference in his performance that will lift his OPS from the .800s to the .900s and it is my belief that he will get there.
The Mets seem inclined to use him as a number 2 hitter in the lineup which works as a way to give his bat plenty of action. His power suggests that he belongs in the middle of the lineup but with Lindor, McNeil, Marte and Baty all playing beneath their level it may make sense for him to stay where he is. If all cylinders were firing, I would have Alvarez hitting sixth between Baty and McNeil.
Brett Baty – The Mets made a mistake when they sent their hottest hitter to AAA to start the season but manage to correct their error somewhat quickly thanks to Eduardo Escobar not producing any offense and Baty going on a rampage in Syracuse. Through his first 10 games as a Met, Baty won over fans and writers in a big way earning his way into the everyday lineup and getting shifted from the bottom of the order up to Pete Alonso’s protection in the lineup. Unfortunately, his May and June have seen an extended slump.
The Mets don’t have an alternative who can unseat Baty and it doesn’t seem there is anything for him to learn in the minors but the Mets and their fans are losing those warm fuzzy feelings in a hurry.
Kevin Parada – Thanks to Alvarez’ success in the majors, many fans have already switched their allegiance from Parada as the future catcher. This means that every amateur GM now looks at Parada as a trade asset and not a future Met. For his part, Parada has basically proven that his bat is more than a match for the Advanced A level. Parada seems to have a lot of contact ability but seems to have less raw power than Alvarez. Because Brooklyn is a terrible place for power hitting, we won’t really know until Parada reaches Binghamton. The Mets don’t seem in a hurry to put him there but he’s long since proven he’s ready.
Ronny Mauricio – Around 2021, Mets360.com suggested a 6’3 shortstop who was not good at picking the ball up off the ground should probably move to the outfield. Flash forward multiple seasons and the Mets seem to finally be realizing what amateurs could see years ago. Though, the Mets are still trying to force that square peg through a round hole by having him play second base. While Mauricio has had fewer errors since this move, the Mets have finally begun toying with left field as an alternative. Offensively there has been no player in the Met farm system who has made more positive progress from last season to this. He has struck out far less and is walking more while not losing a step when it comes to contact and power numbers.
The major league team could sure use Mauricio’s switch-hitting bat in their lineup but the team seems to be unwilling to give another prospect a shot at improving their struggling offense. The Mets need to drop Daniel Vogelbach and promote Mauricio (and play him every day).
Alex Ramirez – If the Mets didn’t make a bunch of short-sighted trades and lose both Jarred Kelenic and Pete Crow-Armstrong, Ramirez would be an embarrassment of riches as opposed to the top outfield prospect in the organization. Ramirez has a lot of the same flaws offensively that Mauricio had shown before the 2023 season. He strikes out too much and likes swinging too much. His rates are better than Mauricio’s were at the same level so there is plenty of hope for this not to hurt his future too much. Like Parada, Ramirez has nothing left to prove in Brooklyn but the Mets front office appears timid when it comes to promotions.
Mark Vientos – How do we judge Vientos? Vientos certainly earned his way to the majors and definitely has nothing left to prove in AAA but Buck Showalter (or the nerds who make his lineups) doesn’t seem inclined to allow him to find his footing in the majors. Vientos does seem to be having some problems with major league pitching but he also seems to make a lot of solid contact that has found its way into the gloves of the other team. His BABIP is an anemic .207 and it’s possible if the Mets get out of their own way his hitting will sort itself out. It seems unlikely that the Mets front office will let that happen.
Jett Williams – The speedy shortstop is having his ups and downs in Low A St. Lucie. There is no reason to panic on Williams’ value but the Mets decision to not draft Dylan Lesko, Cooper Hjerpe, Brandon Barriera or Landon Sims seems to be very poor. Williams seems to have the ceiling of being a 10-home run, 30 stolen base shortstop who plays good defense but has a floor of being yet another Gavin Cecchini.
Blade Tidwell – While Tidwell was squarely on my list of targets in the 2022 draft his performance in 2023 has left a lot to be desired. While he has shown a healthy ability to strike batters out (14.0 K/9), he’s also shown a near and total lack of control (3.3 BB/9). Tidwell needs to work on his control or he will be shifted into a relief role. He still appears to be a solid prospect but is not someone it’s easy to get excited about right now.
Dominic Hamel – While Hamel’s 2023 numbers have not been stellar, they are clearly driven down by four colossally bad outings. Overall, Hamel is one of the few starters who shows no control issues and is instead showing issues with the long ball. Hamel has probably fallen behind his rotation mate Mike Vasil in the esteem of the fans but neither has a ceiling above a #3 pitcher on a good team.
Daiverson Gutierrez – The third catching prospect in the Top 10 has only just begun play in the DSL and has yet to do anything of note. There is little one can make out of four games played which is too bad for Christopher Larez who is off to a torrid start in the nearly meaningless DSL.
Outside the Top 10 there are a few fringe players making bids for big ticket attention. Tyler Stuart the 6’9” righty in Brooklyn has done nothing but toss gems all season and likely deserves to be promoted to AA with Parada and Ramirez. Daniel Juarez, who was way too old for Brooklyn, finally got sent to AA and he’s pitched solidly for the Rumble Ponies since that happened. Stanley Consuegra has made waves in High A as well and looks poised for this massive promotion the Mets may never get around to and Jose Peroza has been an absolute stud in Binghamton.
Not that this will surprise you but I’m going to push back on Dominic Hamel.
He’s only been in 11 games, so to dismiss his results in four of those seems a bit much. Especially when four of his “good” starts were a combined 14.1 IP.
Life’s easier when your high picks turn out good. But Hamel is a 24 year old with middling results in Double-A, with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.496 WHIP. The absolute best-case scenario is that he immediately turns things around and pitches light out the rest of the year and forces his way into discussion for the 2024 team. That would mean he’d be looking to make his mark in the majors as a 25 year old.
Since 2016, there have been 24 pitchers born in this country who posted 100 IP at age 25 or above in their rookie season. The success stories are Joe Ryan, Merrill Kelly and John Means. You’re much more likely to be Glenn Otto or Dane Dunning or Wil Crowe. Odds are stacked against this type of guy to make the majors, stacked again to provide 100 IP and stacked again to be good in those 100 IP.
I understand you carefully worded your sentence. But I want to state unequivocally that Hamel’s ceiling is as a fifth starter, with it being a coin flip if he makes the majors for one game.
Mets fans can be biased because deGrom (and Matz) came up at 25 or later and had success. But that’s the grand slam HR trailing by 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th with two outs and an 0-2 count, type of result. If Hamel makes the majors, he’s so much more likely to be Cory Lidle or Robert Person or Tylor Megill.
To me, he’s not a top 10 prospect and I wouldn’t hesitate to deal him for help in 2023.
For what it’s worth the “Top 10” were based upon my pre-season rankings and Hamel is no longer in the Top 10. Note that I leave players on the rankings until the next season so there are three names guaranteed to graduate off of it.
1. Francisco Alvarez, C
2. Brett Baty, 3B
3. Ronny Mauricio, SS
4. Kevin Parada, C
5. Alexander Ramirez, CF
6. Mark Vientos, 3B
7. Mike Vasil, RHP
8. Stanley Consuegra, OF
9. Daiverson Gutierez, C
10. Jose Peroza, 3B
Current FCL roster has Jesus Baez, Willy Fanas, Simon Juan and Dangelo Sarmiento listed
https://www.milb.com/florida-complex/roster/468
Very surprised that Simon Juan is there and I wouldn’t have wagered on Fanas making it, either.
Parada should be promoted to Binghamton. He deserves it and it would be a natural progression for the majors in 2025 or sooner. Imagine two hitting catchers sharing the position of Catcher and DH.
I can’t fault the Mets handling that 20 year old Ramirez. It seems, what I’ve read , he could be better at recognizing the strike zone.
Peroza is a good prospect deserving to be promoted to Syracuse. He has very good stats in his minor league career. Can he be an above average Major League starter?
The pitching prospects are very disappointing.
Lots of promotions becoming overdue but basically anyone good in Brooklyn shouldn’t be there anymore.
Since Parada is still at A ball he’s got a long way to go. And if in a year or two he is our backup catcher and gets playing time at another position or at DH that will be great. As for Mauricio I would offer that the easiest place in the field to play is LF and if not there he could DH. We need his bat and speed now, not when we are deeper behind.
Love the discussion of our prospects. It’s a great distraction from our current MLB roster.
Parada does DH to keep his bat in the lineup when the Mets have the #2 catcher play. Parada could play first but is slower than Alvarez and a poor fit for the outfield.
Great update David. Thanks for enlightening us all on this. Couple questions after reading.
Mauricio. Which is his better side at the plate? Does his approach change depending on which box hes in?
Vientos. Ive corssed the Rubicon with him and would like to see him play 1B every day til Alonso returns. He needs the AB before stalling as a quad A player.
Tidwell. Of the pair of command and control, Im curious if you think his walk rate comes at pitches he cannot command or does he have command of his arsenal but still facing control issues.
Mauricio has better numbers against righties but also way more at bats against them. I don’t think there is a historic trend for him.
Vientos… agreed and amen
I keep missing Tidwell for live scouting but his walk rate is just not sustainable. It’s like Shervyen Newton’s strikeout rate. It’s out of control.
David, as always, I love your articles. Your comments about the Mets front office slow-walking a number of prospects are both interesting and disturbing. Can you or would you offer an opinion on who in the Mets front office is chiefly responsible for this?
I will once again blame Ray Ramirez even though he is no longer in the organization. No, I have no idea who’s to blame but it ultimately comes down to Billy Eppler.