The top 10 reasons the 2023 Mets are floundering

My preference is to be upbeat and optimistic when it comes to the Mets. But let’s be honest, there just isn’t a ton to be excited about here as we near the mid-point of the 2023 season. Instead, what we have is a ton of frustration. It’s my belief that players, coaches and management care and that they’re trying. At the same time, the company line of Kumbaya – unity and interpersonal harmony – needs to end.

Things don’t have to be perfect. Conflict isn’t always a bad thing. Maybe that’s a Gen X, child of the 70s way of looking at things. But when you cut your baseball teeth on the dynasties of the early-70s A’s and the late-70s Yankees, you understand that you don’t have to play nice with your co-workers all of the time to have success. And if you saw the mid-80s Mets get rid of the outspoken players and keep the guys who didn’t rock the boat – and then fail to win another World Series – well, that realization only gets stronger.

My breaking point this year was reached no later than May 11, when that day’s Gut Reaction asked for the Mets to recreate the shower scene from “Bull Durham,” where the manager hurls a ton of bats at the players and accuses them of being lollygaggers. That hasn’t happened and things have continued to be lousy in the 43 days since then. Show some passion – what could it hurt?

Of course, passion isn’t the only thing missing; it’s just the easiest thing to achieve. But when you start with the easy stuff, you might be surprised with how much you can achieve. With that as our backdrop, here’s my list of the top 10 reasons this year’s team is floundering:

10. Edwin Diaz injury – The Mets haven’t missed Diaz in the ninth inning, as David Robertson has been terrific in the closer’s role. Where they miss him is that he forces the good relievers to be used more often – and later – than they would otherwise. With Diaz to pitch the ninth, you could conceivably pitch Robertson in the sixth if that’s when the game was at a crucial point. You simply cannot do that now.

9. Defensive woes – You might think this is recency bias, with the defense being the major reason the Mets lost Friday night’s game. But the simple fact is that the team’s defense has been unacceptable since the early stages of the season. After a strong start in the field, the Mets now rank 24th in MLB in FanGraphs’ comprehensive DEF rankings, which is a combination of UZR and Statcast defensive metrics.

8. Production from 3B – With Eduardo Escobar’s strong finish to 2022 and with top prospect Brett Baty waiting in the wings, expectations for what the Mets would get offensively from guys who played the hot corner were fairly high coming into the year. Instead, the team’s 3B have combined for a .225/.289/.352 line. That .641 OPS is the second-worst mark on the club, beating out only Tomas Nido and the catchers. Even the club’s pinch-hitters are better, as they have a .668 OPS.

7. The implosion of Carlos Carrasco – It seemed like the Mets were going to have one of the best fifth starters in the league with Carrasco. Instead, they’ve got a guy with a 6.34 ERA, one who’s thrown a pitch in the sixth inning just two times in nine starts. But they have little choice but to keep giving him the ball and hoping for a miracle turnaround.

6. Power slump – The Mets have been a decent HR hitting team, perhaps even a tick better than expected. But power includes more than just homers. If we look at ISO, the MLB average is .161 so far this season. The Mets’ team ISO is a shade below-average and is only there because of the strong production of Pete Alonso and a couple of others. But the regular lineup has six players with an ISO of .155 or lower. The main offenders have been Baty with a .110 mark, while Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil both have anemic .071 marks. Those latter two, 2022 All Stars, are just giant anchors this season.

5. DIPS failure in two of three categories – Defense-Independent Pitching Statistics theory is that a pitcher controls three things – strikeouts, home runs and walks. Mets pitchers have been terrible in the latter two categories. They’re tied for the fourth-most home runs allowed and they’ve surrendered the ninth-most walks. So much for pitching being a strength of the team.

4. Option Relievers – The Mets decided to build their bullpen by hoarding relievers with options to fill the last three spots, figuring that the ability to pitch the hot hand and move guys up and down in those roles was a better way to do things than to go out and get guys who were good. The Diaz injury made the Mets play that game with four spots rather than three. And the results have been dismal. Three relievers who made the Opening Day roster have already been DFAd and a fourth is in Triple-A. In all, seven relievers have an ERA over 5.40 while only two relievers – Robertson and Brooks Raley – with at least three games pitched have a sub-3.80 ERA.

3. Struggles from the two-hole – We like to think that batting orders make a huge difference. But as long as you’re batting guys with good production in the top two spots, you’re most of the way there towards optimizing your lineup. The Mets have received a .201/.259/.324 line from their second-place hitters, which is horrific. Most of that’s been Marte. But Francisco Lindor has a .603 OPS in 107 PA batting second. The only one with any success has been Francisco Alvarez, who batted just .161 but four of his five hits went for homers, giving him a .761 OPS.

2. The performance depths of the depth starters – With an older rotation, it was more important for the 2023 Mets to have good depth options than most teams. Last year, Tylor Megill and David Peterson combined to make 28 starts with a 4.25 ERA and the hope was that with last year’s experience, they’d be even better in ’23. This year, Megill has made 15 starts and has a 5.17 ERA while Peterson has an 8.08 ERA in eight starts. Both are now in Triple-A and neither is expected back soon.

1. The $43 million man with the 93 ERA+ – Last year Justin Verlander won the CY Award with a 223 ERA+ over 175 IP. The Mets hoped to get a reasonable facsimile of that pitcher, one who would extend winning streaks and prevent losing streaks. Instead, they got a pitcher who missed the first five weeks of the year and upon his return, has put up the second-worst season of his 18-year career. Only 2014, when he posted an 85 ERA+ has been worse. Even then, he won 15 games and the Tigers won 19 of his 32 starts. This year, Verlander is 2-4 and the Mets are 3-6 in his starts. A healthy and productive Verlander would have made a world of difference.