When the 2023 Major League Baseball season began, the New York Mets were expected by many to be World Series contenders. The biggest reason was because of their starting pitching.
The starting rotation was expected to be the Mets’ biggest strength. It was led by two 3-time Cy Young Award winners in Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, after the Mets signed Verlander in the offseason.
After Scherzer and Verlander, the Mets made two other acquisitions. One was the best pitcher in Japan last year in Kodai Senga and his ghost splitter. The other was Jose Quintana, who was an All-Star with the Cardinals last season.
Filling out the rotation, was Carlos Carrasco who won 13 games for the Mets last season. Finally, there was David Peterson and Tylor Megill, who both provide much needed depth and filled in nicely last year for injured starters.
So this rotation had depth with two future Hall of Famers and a few other All-Star-caliber pitchers.
But when Spring Training started, the rotation quickly started going through their bumps and bruises. Quintana suffered a rib fracture during a Spring Training start and underwent bone-graft surgery as a result. He still has yet to make a start in a Mets uniform.
Then on Opening Day, Verlander was placed on the IL with a low-grade teres strain, that sidelined him for a month.
With Quintana and Verlander out, Peterson and Megill were thrust into the rotation earlier than expected. Peterson was ineffective with an ERA over 8.00 and was sent to the minor leagues in May. Megill was inconsistent and had a couple of rough starts in June, that also sent him to the minors.
Scherzer has dealt with minor injuries and also a 10-game suspension in April for sticky substance in his hand. On the mound, he has not consistently shown the form that made him one of the best pitchers in the last decade.
Verlander returned in the start of May, but just like Scherzer, has struggled with consistency all year.
Senga won his first two starts (both vs the Miami Marlins) of his MLB career, but just like everyone else in rotation, has been up and down as well.
Lastly Carrasco has struggled all year with a current ERA of 5.94.
So everyone in the rotation has struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness at times, and it’s been a big reason for the Mets underachieving struggles this season.
However, the starting pitching has been better lately and slowly starting to come into form, especially over the last week or so.
After his suspension, Scherzer did struggle in his first start back, vs the Detroit Tigers. But ever since that debacle, in nine starts, Scherzer has given up two runs or fewer in seven of them. He has struck out at least eight batters in six of those starts. He has also completed at least five innings in eight of those starts. After his start vs the Tigers, Scherzer’s ERA was 5.56. Now, it has gone down to 3.87.
So far in Verlander’s Mets tenure, he’s had one good start, followed by one bad start, and back and forth. However, in his last two starts, he’s put a string of good ones. In those two starts, Verlander has given up only one run (unearned) in 12 innings. Perhaps this may be a sign of him turning the corner to more consistency.
Senga’s inconsistency is more perhaps due to him still learning the majors and trying to have a smooth transition to a new setting in the USA after being in Japan all his life. But in his good starts, he showed how dominant he can be at times with his ghost forkball, which can bring a lot of swings and misses. Especially in his last start last night vs the Arizona Diamondbacks, where he went a career high eight innings, giving up only one run, one walk, and also tied a career high with 12 strikeouts.
Carrasco has been a little better in his last two starts, giving up only two runs in each of them.
Lastly, the Mets brought back Peterson and in two starts, he has looked a lot better than he was early in the season. He shut out the Milwaukee Brewers through six innings in the first start and gave up only one run vs the San Francisco Giants this past Sunday.
And Quintana is close to finally coming back, with one more rehab start remaining.
So the Mets starting pitching has looked more in form recently and could finally have their full rotation set soon.
In the last 11 games, the Mets starters have given up two runs or fewer in 10 of them. The Mets record in that span is 6-5 and their bullpen has lost all 5 of those games. So the starting pitching is hardly to blame for their recent losing.
But the rotation’s late resurgence has brought some hope to a dismal year so far. The starting pitching was expected to be the team’s biggest strength. It has underachieved for most of the year, like the team has. But it has looked a lot better overall recently and if they continue to stay sharp, like they have over the last week, the Mets will find more winning consistency.
The Mets are now 25-4 when their SP goes at least six innings, including 3-0 here in July.
It was probably a one-off due to the upcoming All-Star break but it was so encouraging to see Buck send Senga back out for the eighth inning last night, even though his pitch count was already in the 90s. The last thing we needed was to send Gott out to the mound and have him give up runs. When the starters are going good, Buck should ride them.
From the TV view, Senga looks to have really good stuff. That high fastball ghost fork combo is lethal. His third pitch is looking sharper as well. If he could align to the MLB standard of rest he could be a really strong #3, solid #2.
The starters are getting into form and a article supports your statement. The fact that the five losses of eleven games were a result of the bullpen is very troubling. This articles focuses on the starters so comments should focus on that.
Senga in his 16 starts had 11 games with 2 runs or less and lost 2 of the games. He might turn out to be the Ace of their staff in 2023.
Peterson is a disappointment. Maybe he turn his season, like you written and hopefully he can pitch like he did last year. Hopefully a healthy Quintana also pitch like last year. That is a lot of hope.
Carrasco could be a odd man left out. The Mets had to exercise his option right after the World Series because their rotation was in flux but I don’t understand why they didn’t trade him after they signed Quintana. If Peterson and Quintana looks like they’re better than Carrasco then maybe they can trade Carrasco to get some bullpen help.
Your article gives us hope.
If we can continue to get solid starting pitching I think we can have a good record this month – something in the area of 17-6 (13-6 the rest of the month from today) which would get us to 53-52 and back in “buyer” position.
Senga has been solid and Verlander and Scherzer are coming around. I think the Mets will be buyers and sellers at the deadline. They need to upgrade their bullpen for not only this year, but for next. I’d like to see them pick up some younger controllable arms. So I think you will see Pham go and Robertson and hopefully Vogelbach. And Mauricio, get on the train to NYC.
That being said, they are only 6 1/2 games out of the wild card spot. They have to pass alot of teams. This is a nice four game winning streak. They have to keep it up and cannot afford to take three steps back.