Many years ago, Cary Grant was a leading man in Hollywood. And despite his heartthrob status, Grant visited ladies of the night. When asked why a man like him would pay for romance, Grant replied, “You don’t pay them for sex, you pay them to go away.” It was difficult not to think of that quote when the Mets sent roughly $36 million to Texas to facilitate the trade of Max Scherzer for a top prospect.
The other thought that jumped to mind was a deadline deal by the Mets back in 2011, when they sent Carlos Beltran and cash to the Giants for Zack Wheeler. My memory says the Mets sent something along the lines of $5-7 million but that could not be confirmed with a quick Google search. What did show up was that Keith Law had Wheeler as his 31st-ranked prospect at the time of the deal.
So, a dozen years later, the Mets needed to send 6X that much to acquire a prospect ranked 58th on Law’s current list. Some of that is baseball inflation, as Scherzer was making significantly more than Beltran, as well as having an additional year of control. But some of that – in my opinion – is simply an overpay.
Everyone’s excited because the prospect they got – Luisangel Acuna – is the younger brother of the Braves star who is a legitimate five-tool MLB player. But just because one brother is a stud doesn’t mean the other one will be as well. Tommie Aaron, Mike Glavine and Chris Gwynn are but three examples that jump immediately to mind who didn’t match the talents of their Hall of Fame sibling.
Acuna is a solid prospect and he should be one of the top three for the Mets, with the order depending on what you like and value the most. Dudes love speed and Acuna has that in spades. But if you’re a guy who prefers power, well, Acuna doesn’t quite measure up. He’s got a .315/.377/.453 line but that’s just a .138 ISO in the Texas League, which is a pretty good hitter’s loop.
His famous brother didn’t spend much time in Double-A but he put up a .194 ISO at age 19 when he did. Our Acuna is two years older than that, which is a significant difference. Acuna might be able to put up a better OPS+ than Jeff McNeil right now. But that says more about McNeil here in 2023 than it does Acuna.
It’s my take that Acuna almost certainly will make the majors and with a very high likelihood of putting up a triple-digit OPS+. But it seems to me to be much closer to 110 than to his brother’s current 161 mark. And just to be clear, a 110 OPS+ from a middle infielder is a good thing. It’s just that it seems light for $36 million and a year-plus of Scherzer in what should be a seller’s market.
That’s easy to say from the comfort of my office chair. And for the record, it’s my belief that Eppler did his due diligence and didn’t just trade Scherzer to the first team he called. The Rangers are still on the hook for roughly $22 million and if Scherzer can’t fix his command issues they may rue this deal.
Still, it seems like the Mets are so eager both to accumulate prospects and use Cohen’s wealth to their advantage that they are agreeing to deals that maybe they should pass on.
The Trevor Gott deal, where they paid the freight to release Chris Flexen just to get Gott, seemed like lighting money on fire. The Scherzer deal doesn’t quite sink to that level for me. However, it still seems like a sub-optimal use of resources. It almost falls to the level of my cousin Charlie, who was so eager for people to like him that he would buy stuff and then sell it at a loss, just so they’d think he was a good guy.
When rumors of the trade were circulating on the platform formerly known as Twitter, it was guessed that the Mets were also getting Sebastian Walcott in the deal. Maybe Walcott would have been too much for the pitcher Scherzer has been most of this season. Still, it seems like the Mets should have gotten something else here.
My opinion is that the Mets did well with the return for David Robertson. Right now, that sentence can’t be said by me for this Scherzer deal. Of course, what’s thought on the day of the trade isn’t the only thing that matters. It’s certainly possible that Scherzer only goes downhill from here and that Acuna is the base-stealing leadoff man that everyone craves and he develops a bit more patience and power as he moves up the ladder.
Some may think this trade was driven at least in part by comments that Scherzer made about wanting to speak to Cohen directly about the team’s future. However, SNY’s Andy Martino outright dismissed that idea, saying on yesterday’s pre-game/rain delay coverage that this trade has been in the work for days.
Cohen seemingly believes that Scherzer no longer is a guy to help lead the charge to the World Series. It’s not an unreasonable take by any means. And while it’s a potential outcome that Scherzer continues his slide from last year’s 2.29 ERA, it’s also on the table that he reverts to much closer to that form the rest of the way.
While not a fan of this particular deal, the one good thing is that it shows the continuation of a pattern for Eppler. Making both the Robertson and the Scherzer deals well before the trade deadline adds to his quick draw reputation. By making these deals early, it should help clarify what the team will need if any other moves are done this trading period. And who knows – maybe they’ll get a pitcher or an outfielder when they trade Tommy Pham.
When Alderson made the Beltran deal, it was known for weeks that he wanted Wheeler. He went down to the deadline and didn’t blink.
When Dambrowski insisted on Fullmer be in the Cespedes deal, he too told Alderson that he could walk away with no problem. Problem was, Alderson couldn’t.
Eppler has too many pieces to sell, but problem is he wants to sell pretty badly. It’s been written that the Mets were smart to start selling early, but I too would have liked something more, especially, when the team is adding a ton of money. I don’t care if his name is Acuna or Jordan, the only brother combination I can think of that both were studs are the Watt brothers in football, as both were fearsome defensive linemen before JJ retired this passed winter.
It is my take that Eppler is not using Cohen’s assets to their fullest potential. If though Scherzer’s comments did insult Cohen as much as they insulted those of us that read them, then good riddance. Eppler may have wanted more and that’s what the original rumors were implying, but Scherzer’s comments made him step it up? I don’t know.
Yet, I would keep Verlander. Sell Cahna, Pham, and Raley.
Matty, Felipe, Jesus Alou
Phil, Joe Niekro
Gaylord, Jim Perry
Clete, Ken Boyer
Roberto, Sandy Alomar
Those came to mind, then I found this below
https://www.mlb.com/news/greatest-sibling-combos-in-mlb-history
When it comes to being sellers, Im pretty sure that disappointment in most transactions will follow just given that anyone actually performing *now* will not be recompensed by the same immediacy in return.
As far as the Beltran deal goes, I prefer to think about this in terms of percent not actual money, as that is not comparable based on time, changes in salary structures and the like. Scherzer is owed a total of about 58M$ for this year and next year. The Mets are eating 35.5M$ of that, so about 61% of the remaining. In return the Mets are getting a valued prospect who clearly plays a position (2B) we need help with given how poor McNeil has become (really, he’s now a bench player on a rope team). If we turn to the Beltran deal, The Giants *really* wanted Beltran and so were more prone to offering up more in return, but also recall that Wheeler was in High A, and Acuna is projected to see the big leagues next season. Turning to the finances though, Beltran had about 6.5M$ left on his contract, and the Mets ate 4M$ of that, which totals to…drum roll…62% of the contract. Essentially the two deals are a financial wash by proportion, no matter what the actual value is. Keep in mind Scherzer exercised his 2024 player option, so the trades are different from that perspective too.
Let’s wait and see about Acuna2 and try to treat him as his own player, and not a constant barrage of comparisons with Acuna1, who is already in the HOF track even at this early age. Acuna2 could have a wonderful accomplished career without making the Hall.
One other thing i read is that the Scherzer trade will lead to a bunch of millions of dollars in reduction for the luxury tax.
I can only speak for me but my disappointment has nothing to do with not getting things immediately. I like the Robertson deal and it may be five years before we see those guys. I just think that for what we’re sending out, we should have gotten more in return.
Thank you for finding out the details on the cash in the Beltran deal and additional thanks for providing me the link in today’s chatter. I’m surprised that the percent works out the way that it does. Still, I think there are two additional things we have to consider. One, is that the Giants only had Beltran for two months and could not offer him arbitration. The Rangers will have Scherzer for one year and two months. Now, it’s possible that’s not such a great thing. But it certainly could work out that extra control is worth more, even with the additional money the Rangers have to pay him. Second, and the more important of the two, is my belief that Wheeler was a better prospect then than Acuna is now, an opinion buttressed by Keith Law ranking him significantly higher.
I like this deal more than you do Brian. Quite honestly I’m surprised that the Mets were able to get this highly rated of a prospect for Scherzer, who, although a change may benefit him, appears to be on the downswing. I’m not sure if some of the initial rumors about what the Mets return were raised a lot of people’s expectations and then getting one player back was a disappointment.
Also, as you said, it’s completely unfair to compare Acuna to his brother who is one of the top players in the game.
In regards to this compared with the Robertson trade, I prefer the top 50 rated prospect playing in AA than the teenage lottery tickets with talent. I honestly didn’t expect that the Mets would get this much for Scherzer based on his contract and performance, even with Cohen kicking in serious cash.
I do want them to hold on to Verlander. He should be a key cog next year.
Oh and I would keep Raley too.
Not that he needs it, but it frees up a bit more money to pursue Ohtani, Yamamoto, and/or Urias next season (or all 3!). I agree with the take above about how early reports (of which I wrote about) having us bringing back 3 prospects including Brock Porter make the final deal seem underwhelming, but we need high end prospects in the system and this gives us one. Still shocked we aren’t getting pitchers back yet.
Cohen wants to win now and sustain the winning year after year.. The performance of Scherzer this year and last big games in 2022 vs Atlanta and SD, convinced him that’s Scherzer would not lead the Mets to the promised land.
He is 39 and trending downward.
It opens up a spot rotation for a younger, better starter in free agency.
Eppler obtained the #58 prospect in MLB.
It was an overpay but that was the price to refurbish for 2024.
Brian and Metsense, you both called this an overpay. Is it the amount of money that the Mets kicked in that makes you feel that way or just that should have gotten more for Scherzer?
For me, both.
We can say that with Cohen, money is no big deal. But it’s a big deal to just about every other owner in the game and I believe that Scherzer + $36 million should have resulted in a bigger return. Again, that’s easy for me to say. I’m sure Eppler did his job and this was the best return out there. But I would have said no and held on to Scherzer if this was the best deal possible.
I’m guessing you are valuing Scherzer present and future higher than most.
Right now he has a 4.01 ERA with a 4.73 FIP. Not very ace like numbers. But even if he bombs with the Rangers and he were to become a FA, i would think that some team would probably gamble and throw him say $15 mil next year. And in the scenario where he performs really well down the stretch, what would a 1 year contract look like then? My guess is somewhere in the low $30s.
The Rangers and Mets seemingly just split the difference and said he’ll probably just perform at the middling mark he’s been at so far and the $22.5 mil that the Rangers are paying is close to the midpoint of the theoretical low/high values. So the control of Scherzer next year is at market value and thus shouldn’t factor into the trade equation.
So the way i see it is that the Rangers are giving up Acuna, a top 100 prospect, for 2 months of Scherzer (at no salary). For a 4 ERA guy, that is an overpay in my eyes. And even if you think he’ll perform at a 3 ERA the rest of the way, that’s still a high prospect cost these days
Fair enough, if you value Scherzer as a true-talent level 4.01 ERA pitcher. Coming off a season where he had a 2.29 ERA, that’s not my valuation of his true-talent level. In his last 14 starts, he has a 3.60 ERA and that includes four starts where he gave up at least 5 ER. I think between what he’s done in recent years, combined with how he’s done since May 14, there’s legitimate reasons to think he’s better than his season-long ERA.
Now, maybe Texas doesn’t agree with him and he gets lit up in home starts – that wouldn’t surprise me. Still, this trade didn’t match my expectations of his trade value. I think the value of Scherzer is off and I’m not as high on Acuna as others are. Time will tell
You’re forgetting we live in a world of “What have you done for me lately”
His HR issues have gotten worse as the season has progressed so there’s no reason to think he’s a sub 4 ERA pitcher this year.
April : 7 HR in 19.1 IP
May: 3 HR in 21.1 IP
June : 6 HR in 36 IP
July: 10 HR in 31 IP
Let’s see a 3.60 ERA in his last 14 games and a 2.70 ERA in his last 3. How much more lately can you get?
Or if you cherry pick different sets the narrative changes:
Last 5: 4.35 ERA
Last 10: 4.65 ERA
Last 15: 4.08 ERA
14 makes the most sense as that’s when he returned from the injury. But you do you.
Bob P, it was an overpay because Scherzer had 1.33 years left on his contract. Essentially Cohen paid off his contract this year and half of the next year. I feel they should have gotten another prospect at that price. I don’t think there was a market for Scherzer and that is why they paid that price. The Mets wanted to shed Scherzer.
I understand about paying the contract, but as you said, there may not have been a market for Scherzer and so getting a guy who will probably be the Mets No. 1 prospect seems like a good deal to me.
Count me as one who thought the return on each deal was underwhelming. Not that the Mets didn’t increase their farm system depth. With Robertson, I think they could have gotten quality pitching closer to the bigs (less risk) and with Scherzer, likely there was no competition with Texas for his services, but the money transferred should have yielded an additional second level prospect.
With respect to 2024, Verlander, and Raley, word is that the Mets are valuing them high. They most certainly should. Eppler better not part with either and come back with what he got in those two previous deals…these guys have more value to the 2024 team. Pham and Cahna should yield some more prospect depth, but not the quality upper level pitching that is the biggest need. Verlander could do that.
Part of what makes the amount of money eaten so high is because the Mets paid a big premium when Max was initially signed (a more flattering way of saying he bid against himself), kinda like how some companies pay for more than asset value and call it “intangibles”
I don’t think any team was offering more than around $35mil and that was probably just 1 or 2 teams at that range. Most other teams value / can only afford him at a <$30 mil price point and so to facilitate any trade would require the Mets to write down or eat the Cohen premium since no other team values the "intangibles" as high as the Mets.
I reckon $15-20 mil of the $36 million is attributable to the Cohen premium
Yup, and the remainder of the payoff performance depreciation. So a diminished Max, with his resume and legendary work ethic, I have a market value of $25 mil per. For 1 1/3 seasons, that is say $33 mil. So, even if it’s $20 mil, lest say $28 mil for 1 1/3 seasons. Mets paid an extra $6-$11 million, I would have liked another lower level lottery ticket, and likely so did Eppler…but Uncle Steve’s overpay cost negotiating leverage even if he is Uber wealth.
Scherzer claimed to have solved the problem with his slider and went out and pitched a great game. He bombed the next time out and then threw another gem. If his slider is fixed, he’ll be very valuable to Texas.
Scherzer is clearly on the steep decline path. Maybe he magically defeats Father Time for a little while longer, but the glory days are over. It’s not an insult, it’s how time functions for everyone. Sure, he’s an elite athlete, blah blah blah, but you cant pretend he doesnt have a million miles on the arm and body. All the little things that are essential are easy to drift with age. Im not saying hes done by any means, but one cant pretend this was a trade for peak CY Scherzer. He’s a middle of the rotation guy now with on/off stuff that cannot routinely give you 6-7 IP. He’s the gopher ball center of the major league universe, again which shows the niggly little things fail regularly enough that no one fears him at the plate.
How the trade deal went down is something we will never likely know. Im pretty sure Cohen would not green light it for someone so serious without being convinced it was appropriate in scope. He didnt get to be the king of Wall Street by being flagrantly uncaring about investing.
Anyway, the proportion of the salary eat is the exact same thing as Anderson did with the Beltran deal. Let’s hope Acuna can get his AA – AAA ABs accruing and shining so maybe he can impact the major league team next season.
I don’t believe that Scherzer is on the “steep decline path” is clear at all.
It would be one thing if he was consistently mediocre in his starts. But he has starts where he’s every bit as good as he was last year and starts where he’s just terrible. And it’s not like the good starts are all against the dregs, either. Seven shutout innings with one hit against the Dodgers, 8 IP with just a solo homer against the Astros, 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks against the Phillies. Plus there was the series in COL where every other Mets pitcher was getting abused and Scherzer allowed 1 ER in 7 IP. Additionally, he was on his way to a great start against LA before the ridiculous umpire ejection.
What’s clear to me is that Scherzer can still be very good when he has command. The games where he gets knocked around are ones where he’s leaving hittable pitches in the middle of the plate. Is that the first result in the inevitable loss to Father Time? That’s absolutely possible. Or, it could be in a season where he’s had to adjust to the new pitch clock rules, dealt with a neck injury and missed 11 days to the suspension — these command issues are part of a wacky year and it’s possible that it’s due to that rather than age doing him in.
My opinion is that it’s a reasonable POV to think that Scherzer is no longer a pitcher you want as your first or second-best starter. I think it’s also reasonable to think he still has gas left in the tank and can continue to perform at or better than the 3.60 ERA he’s had in his last 14 starts, since returning from the neck injury. There are 119 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 70 IP this season. A 3.60 ERA would rank 39th. That’s a strong SP2 – better than Spencer Strider (3.73) and Zack Wheeler (3.74)
The only way I would trade Verlander is if we got a good young arm or two in return and did pay through the nose for Verlanders contract. Gives us more money to go after Ohtani, Snell, Yamamoto and Hader next year. I would not trade Raley. Tomorrow will be an interesting day.