Does the spring training won-loss record mean anything?

Spring training is upon us, and barring any last minute additions, the Mets 26 player roster is starting to take shape. Once again, we approach the upcoming season with high hopes and low expectations. No one would have predicted a 101 win season back in 2022 but the Mets got there on the backs of their strong starting pitching that included a retread from Cleveland who started 29 games, a collection of free agents who started 30, 29, and 23 games, an often injured star who managed just 11 starts, and a collection of not ready for prime time players who collectively filled out the end of the rotation. They also had the preeminent closer who appeared in 61 games and finished with a 1.31 ERA to go with 32 saves. The hitters played to the 4th best OPS and led the league in hits, team batting average and getting hit by pitches. Ron Hunt would have been proud of that stat. They also managed to finish first in strikeouts, not such a great claim to fame.

2023 was a completely different story as the pitching fell apart early, and the 7-8-9-10 starters pressed into action didn’t show much until the last few months of the season. Several hitters played below their career averages and only an end of the season surge moved some of their statistics to a respectable level. Had the hitters not gone on vacation in the month of June, the Mets might have edged out the Florida Marlins for the last wildcard spot.

Every year I look for the Mets to get off to a strong start in spring training and hope that it conveys to a good regular season, even accepting that spring training games are meaningless since teams are experimenting with various fringe players trying to make the team. A prime example of one having nothing to do with the other would be the 2022 team that finished the grapefruit league with a 10-14 record but then went on to win 101 games in the regular season.

For comparative purposes, we will look at the 26-year period 1998-2023 and compare the spring training and regular season records for the Mets, Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers. The starting year was chosen based on my supposition that the Mets would have had some good spring training records heading into what turned out to be back to back playoff appearances in 1999 and 2000.
During these 26 years, the four teams finished spring training as follows:

Mets: 10 spring winning records; 13 losing records; three finishes at .500.
Braves: 12 winning records; 12 losing records; two finishes at .500.
Phillies: nine winning records; 16 losing records; one finish at .500.
Dodgers: 11 spring winning records; 13 losing records; two finishes at .500.

The following charts show the comparison between what these four teams did in spring training versus the regular season.

Mets	Spring	Spring	Win	Reg	Reg	Win	Season
Year	Wins	Losses	%	Wins	Loses	%	Finish
2023	10	14	0.417	75	87	0.463	4
2022	7	7	0.500	101	61	0.623	1
2021	11	11	0.500	77	85	0.475	3
2020	8	11	0.421	26	34	0.433	4
2019	13	16	0.448	86	76	0.531	3
2018	10	18	0.357	77	85	0.475	4
2017	15	17	0.469	70	92	0.432	4
2016	8	17	0.320	87	75	0.537	2
2015	19	12	0.613	90	72	0.556	1
2014	14	16	0.467	79	83	0.488	2
2013	15	15	0.500	74	88	0.457	3
2012	9	20	0.310	74	88	0.457	4
2011	17	15	0.531	77	85	0.475	4
2010	14	16	0.467	79	83	0.488	4
2009	18	15	0.545	70	92	0.432	4
2008	20	11	0.645	89	73	0.549	2
2007	12	21	0.364	88	74	0.543	2
2006	16	14	0.533	97	65	0.599	1
2005	17	11	0.607	83	79	0.512	4
2004	13	20	0.394	71	91	0.438	4
2003	16	14	0.533	66	95	0.410	5
2002	12	19	0.387	75	86	0.466	5
2001	18	10	0.643	82	80	0.506	3
2000	14	12	0.538	94	68	0.580	1
1999	15	16	0.484	97	66	0.595	2
1998	19	11	0.633	88	74	0.543	2
Totals	360	379	0.487	2072	2037	0.504

The Mets regular season record was only marginally better than their spring record and a number of years with poor spring trainings did not hinder their ability to do well once the season started. They managed to win 100 or more games only once.

Braves	Spring	Spring	Win	Reg	Reg	Win	Season
Year	Wins	Losses	%	Wins	Loses	%	Finish
2023	18	10	0.643	104	58	0.642	1
2022	8	7	0.533	101	61	0.623	1
2021	15	13	0.536	88	73	0.547	1
2020	9	12	0.429	35	25	0.583	1
2019	16	16	0.500	97	65	0.599	1
2018	13	18	0.419	90	72	0.556	1
2017	9	22	0.290	72	90	0.444	3
2016	6	20	0.231	68	93	0.422	5
2015	15	17	0.469	67	95	0.414	4
2014	18	10	0.643	79	83	0.488	2
2013	20	15	0.571	96	66	0.593	1
2012	10	18	0.357	94	68	0.580	2
2011	17	13	0.567	89	73	0.549	2
2010	17	12	0.586	91	71	0.562	2
2009	21	12	0.636	86	76	0.531	3
2008	15	15	0.500	72	90	0.444	4
2007	18	12	0.600	84	78	0.519	3
2006	11	18	0.379	79	83	0.488	3
2005	12	15	0.444	90	72	0.556	1
2004	14	17	0.452	96	66	0.593	1
2003	17	12	0.586	101	61	0.623	1
2002	15	14	0.517	101	59	0.631	1
2001	12	13	0.480	88	74	0.543	1
2000	14	17	0.452	95	67	0.586	1
1999	17	13	0.567	103	59	0.636	1
1998	13	17	0.433	106	56	0.654	1
Totals	370	378	0.495	2272	1834	0.553

While the Braves spring records were not far off from what the Mets accomplished, their regular seasons were much more successful. The also managed to win 100 or more games six times.

Philies	Spring	Spring	Win	Reg	Reg	Win	Season
Year	Wins	Losses	%	Wins	Loses	%	Finish
2023	16	15	0.516	90	72	0.556	2
2022	10	7	0.588	87	75	0.537	3
2021	12	15	0.444	82	80	0.506	2
2020	15	6	0.714	28	32	0.467	3
2019	14	14	0.500	81	81	0.500	4
2018	13	17	0.433	80	82	0.494	3
2017	14	17	0.452	66	96	0.407	5
2016	15	11	0.577	71	91	0.438	4
2015	14	17	0.452	63	99	0.389	5
2014	9	18	0.333	73	89	0.451	5
2013	16	17	0.485	43	89	0.326	4
2012	14	16	0.467	81	81	0.500	3
2011	21	14	0.600	102	60	0.630	1
2010	15	12	0.556	97	65	0.599	1
2009	13	19	0.406	93	69	0.574	1
2008	12	18	0.400	92	70	0.568	1
2007	19	11	0.633	89	73	0.549	2
2006	19	11	0.633	85	77	0.525	2
2005	11	18	0.379	88	74	0.543	2
2004	10	21	0.323	86	76	0.531	2
2003	10	17	0.370	86	76	0.531	3
2002	12	14	0.462	80	81	0.497	3
2001	12	14	0.462	86	76	0.531	2
2000	15	18	0.455	65	97	0.401	5
1999	14	15	0.483	77	85	0.475	3
1998	16	14	0.533	75	87	0.463	3
Totals	361	386	0.483	2046	2033	0.502

The Phillies had a slightly poorer overall spring training record than the Mets. During the regular season their mediocrity jumped out as the only won 13 more games than they lost over those 26 years. They also recorded 100 or more wins only once.

Dodgers	Spring	Spring	Win	Reg	Reg	Win	Season
Year	Wins	Losses	%	Wins	Loses	%	Finish
2023	14	13	0.519	100	62	0.617	1
2022	5	9	0.357	111	51	0.685	1
2021	13	11	0.542	106	56	0.654	1 Tie
2020	13	7	0.650	43	17	0.717	1
2019	14	15	0.483	106	56	0.654	1
2018	17	15	0.531	92	71	0.564	1
2017	18	17	0.514	104	58	0.642	1
2016	13	17	0.433	91	71	0.562	1
2015	16	11	0.593	92	70	0.568	1
2014	6	10	0.375	94	68	0.580	1
2013	13	20	0.394	92	70	0.568	1
2012	15	15	0.500	86	76	0.531	2
2011	14	21	0.400	82	79	0.509	3
2010	11	17	0.393	80	82	0.494	4
2009	15	22	0.405	95	67	0.586	1
2008	11	18	0.379	84	78	0.519	1
2007	17	16	0.515	82	80	0.506	4
2006	15	13	0.536	88	74	0.543	1
2005	13	15	0.464	71	91	0.438	4
2004	12	22	0.353	93	69	0.574	1
2003	15	15	0.500	85	77	0.525	2
2002	12	17	0.414	92	70	0.568	3
2001	18	13	0.581	86	76	0.531	3
2000	12	18	0.400	86	76	0.531	2
1999	21	9	0.700	95	67	0.586	1
1998	18	10	0.643	83	79	0.512	3
Totals	361	386	0.483	2319	1791	0.564

Like the Mets, Braves and Phillies, the Dodgers ended up with a sub .500 record over the 26 spring trainings. However, their regular season won-loss record very much echoed the perennial division champion Braves, and they did manage to win 100 or more game five times

The results reinforced my research that what happens in spring training has little bearing on the regular season. The Braves and Dodgers found a way to make the most of their situation when the regular season bell rang, and the Mets and Phillies, for the most part, did not.
The next chart shows the comparison between spring training and regular season records and then where each of the teams finished in the standings.

Spring	Winning	Losing	0.500		Regular	Winning	Losing	0.500	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Training	Records	Records	Records		Season	Records	Records	Records	Place	Place	Place	Place	Place
Mets	10	13	3		Mets	12	14	0	4	6	4	10	2
Braves	12	12	2		Braves	20	6	0	15	4	4	2	1
Phillies	9	16	1		Phillies	13	11	2	4	7	8	3	4
Dodgers	11	13	2		Dodgers	24	3	0	16	3	4	3	0

While the Mets and Phillies each managed four first place finishes, the Braves and Dodgers finished first 15 and 16 times respectively.

Next came the search of the Internet to get a smarter perspective on the correlation between spring training and regular season records. What I learned from countless articles is that the spring training record has essentially no correlation to how the team will do in the regular season. While all teams tinker with their rosters in the spring, the really good teams (Braves, Dodgers and there are others) appear to be working on ways to improve their already strong and competitive teams, while the teams on the fringe (Mets, Phillies and there are others), are lucky just to field a competitive team when the season starts.

And one more tidbit of info to consider. During the 26 years span the Mets played in two world series (2000 and 2015), losing both. The Braves played in two world series (1999 and 2021) and split the pair. The Phillies played in three world series (2008, 2009 and 2022) winning one, and the Dodgers played in three world series (2017, 2018 and 2020) winning one. When all was said and done, the Mets were only one world series win behind these other teams.

Steve Cohen talks about the Mets organization being more like the Dodgers and I for one will be happy to tinker in the spring but them have regular season results like they do. There is much work to be done.