With the Mets surging ahead of the All-Star Break into the third wild card spot backed on a strong offensive performance in the post-Grimace Era, the pitching staff is poised to get a shot in the arm after the All-Star Break with the impending return of ace Kodai Senga.
The 2023 All-Star and runner-up in NL Rookie of the Year Voting has been sidelined all year with a series of arm injuries – first a moderate capsule strain in his right shoulder suffered during spring training, and then triceps soreness while he was ramping up in May.
He finally made his season debut with the Brooklyn Cyclones against the Hudson Valley Renegades, the Yankees’ High-A team on July 3 and was brilliant across 2.2 innings. In that start he needed only 35 pitches to strike out six batters (all swinging, two on fastballs, four on forkballs) in 2.2 innings on Coney Island.
In short, it was exactly what you’d want a frontline MLB starter to do to a lineup full of High-A players. But that is not also the case with MLB rehabbers, who tend to get hit around by minor leaguers sometimes.
After that start, he was transferred to Triple-A Syracuse, where he made two starts this week against the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Between the three starts, Senga has allowed just one run in 10.0 innings with 12 strikeouts and four walks, good for for a 0.90 ERA. He has given up only two hits in that span as well.
The maximum time for a rehab for a pitcher is 30 days and with Senga having begun his rehab with Brooklyn on July 3, that puts him on track for an early August return at latest, though it could be even sooner.
On Sunday against the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Senga threw 67 pitches across 4.2 innings, striking out three while walking two and allowing one run on two hits. His four-seam fastball averaged 95 mph and touched 97, in line with his velocities in his first two rehab starts.
That is an encouraging sign for the Mets and Senga, given that his shoulder and triceps injuries are not hampering his velocity at all. His Ghost Fork has been effective as well – a promising sign that his best weapon has looked good.
Having witnessed Senga’s first rehab start with the Cyclones, the eye test says that Senga looked really good. The velocity was there – a big consideration considering the arm injuries that have kept him out this year – and he was commanding his pitches well. In chatting with some of the Renegades hitters after the game, the general feeling was that he was “nasty.”
So with three starts under his belt and his pitch count built up to the high 60s the question remains what is Senga’s timetable to rejoin the Mets?
Carlos Mendoza was asked over the weekend if Senga would need another rehab outing and said that it was “still TBD,” which at least hints that Senga is close.
Adding him into the mix has the effect of contributing a front-line starter to one of the hottest teams in baseball, and while catching the Philadelphia Phillies for the NL East lead is probably out of the question at the moment, he could be huge in the Mets making a postseason push after the Mid-Summer Classic.
It is not only adding a front-line guy, but one that would replace the likes of David Peterson or Christian Scott, constituting a big upgrade in the rotation. The Mets would need to open up a spot on the 40-man roster to make room for Senga, but there are several DFA candidates on the pitching staff that should be easy enough to push through waivers without losing that wouldn’t be a problem.
With Senga back as part of the best offensive team in baseball over the past month, the Mets trajectory is looking up after the All-Star Break.
Here are some guys to remove from the 40-man for Senga:
Ty Adcock
Jake Diekman
Matt Gage
Grant Hartwig
Tyler Jay
Cole Sulser
Josh Walker
Diekman and Gage likely aren’t going anywhere. But those other five should all be nervous. However, maybe they can kill two birds with one stone and open up spots on both the 40-man and 26-man roster by DFAing Diekman.
FWIW – Gary Cohen speculated that it’s either no more rehab starts or just one, which means he should be up before the end of July.
Mendoza always says that they’ll have to see how the pitcher is feeling the day after. In this case he even added, “tomorrow, and the day after that”. Aside from that, Cohen’s speculation is on point. They extend rehabbing pitchers by 15-20 pitches per start, so Senga should be scheduled for 80-85 pitches in his next start. Its now up to the Mets to decide whether they’d rather have him do that for them knowing that those pitches will likely last him 5 innings or fewer, or stretch him to 80 in Syracuse before calling him up.
This, again?
We have Tylor Megill and David Peterson, along with Senga, to look at with how this administration handles starting pitchers on rehab stats.
Of the nine rehab starts that we can compare the pitches to what they did previously, seven fall outside your 15-20 window. You insist on saying this as if it’s gospel. At best it’s a rough guide.
When Megill returned to the majors, he threw 12 more pitches than he did in his last rehab start. When Peterson returned, he threw three fewer pitches than his last rehab start. Those are not included in the above numbers. If they were, it would be nine of 11 outside that range. There’s simply not enough data to say with any degree of certainty how many pitches Senga might throw in his next start, whether that’s in the majors or minors.
If you want to use numbers, they should be accurate. And this simply isn’t the case. If you want to say an increase of “fewer than 25,” that would be accurate, if not terribly meaningful.
Or, you know, you could not paint with such a broad brush in the first place.
I like the thought of DFAing Dykeman. He’s so on the wrong side of 30 and has a 5.53 ERA. Hard to imagine putting him in. Some of the other names on the above list are younger and have potential versus Dykeman. Hopefully Senga is back when the season restarts. He can throw a bullpen session to get his pitch count up and then jump right in. He will pitch as far as he can. Then comes the scary pen. Like to sweep the Marlins next weekend and get Senga’s first start in.