The Mets are on the verge of becoming trade-deadline buyers

The Mets’ 16-8 record in June of 2024 was their second-best month of June in team history. It certainly was a departure from the awful months of June in the past, where their lackluster play usually created a huge hole that was often hard to climb out of, even with historically productive strong summer months ahead.  With some great hitting, the Mets went from 10 games under .500 to a game under .500 as they started off the month of July.  July did not start with the same gusto as the month of June, as they ended up splitting four games with the Nationals followed by splitting four games with the Pirates. This left them still one game under .500 and 2.5 games behind the last Wild Card spot.  Essentially, they had made no progress except for chopping eight days off the calendar heading toward the trade deadline.

As devout supporters of this team, the Mets360 readership certainly did not expect the June run to be duplicated in July, even with the first 20 or so games being played against teams with sub-.500 records.  In reality, these teams are “our people.”  As of July 6, only six of 15 National League teams had winning records and the Mets were not one of them. Is it parity or mediocrity?  So many teams are suffering from starting pitching that does not go deep enough into a game to spare overworked bullpens. There are countless significant players from many teams, including the Mets, who are performing well below the backs of their baseball cards.  There was a statistic the other day about six pitchers making in excess of $230 million in total salary who had recorded all of six wins through the first week of July.  Those included former Mets Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.  The other side of 30 has gotten to be a scary place to employ players.

In 2023, before the big trade deadline selloff, Mets fans believed that with a rotation of Verlander, Scherzer and Kodai Senga, they could make a serious run in the playoffs.  In 2024 we have nothing like that to rely on.  Rolling into July, Senga, the ace of the staff, had yet to make his first start of 2024. The rest of the starting staff resembles a collection of retreads from other teams trying to revive their careers, and under-performing young hurlers, none of whom would be considered anything higher than a #3 starter.   Throw in a collection of under-performing and unproven relievers, and just a short time ago, it was hard to imagine making the playoffs, let alone winning that first Wild Card playoff game.

A month ago, in the mid-point of an historic month of June, the Mets needed:

1. stronger starting pitchers who went deeper into games
2. better relievers to fill in, sometimes starting in the fifth inning
3. more timely hitting from our regular position players

It seems the Mets somehow listened to our very intelligent Mets360 writers and commenters and did most of those things. In each of their last five starts, Luis Severino threw six or more innings, Jose Quintana threw six or more in four of five including two seven inning stints, Sean Manaea duplicated Quintana’s effort, and David Peterson made it through six innings three times. The bullpen, however, continued to struggle, coughing up some early July games, and leaving us on the edge of our seats with fingers crossed, hoping they could preserve some games where they held a late lead.

The Mets’ recent successes can certainly be tied to more timely hitting. Francisco Lindor has thrived in the leadoff spot as has Brandon Nimmo hitting behind him.   Mark Vientos, who got a chance to play third base only because Brett Baty faltered, has made the most of this opportunity.  Having played just 51 games this season, Vientos has 12 HR, 33 RBIs, a .291 AVG, and an .896 OPS.  Francisco Alvarez retuned from his injury to not only work his way up to an OPS of .844 but again become the rock behind the plate that the pitching staff needed.  The way he takes charge of the pitchers certainly reminds us of Gary Carter and for us old timers, Jerry Grote.

Harrison Bader has become a clutch-hitting machine near the end of the order, and has not disappointed on defense in the outfield, which is the reason David Stearns brought him here.  And who amongst us would have thought that defensive fill-in Jose Iglesias would become the heart and soul of this team with a .380 AVG, a .999 OPS, and an OMG team-rallying song?  He quietly went 4-4 in the last game before the break.  Even Pete Alonso, who we all feel is under-performing, has still socked 19 HR, 21 doubles and has an OPS of .772.  His value on defense continues to be felt as he digs crappy throws out of the dirt every game, saving his infield teammates countless errors.  Many believe MLB’s desire for Alonso to compete in the All-Star Home Run Derby cost the selection of Lindor and Nimmo to the mid-summer classic.  To their credit, we are not sensing any animosity from his teammates as this newfound positive team chemistry has permeated it from top to bottom.

A month ago, we were ready to put up the “for sale” signs and start planning for next season and those beyond.  Now, sitting at the break with a 49-46 record, many, but not all of us, have changed our tune.  Sure, there is a market out there to move any of our starting pitchers, but with their performance over the last several starts, does that concept still make sense?  There are teams looking to snag Bader and some who still think moving Alonso at the deadline would be the best way to go, given the likelihood that they won’t be able to resign him as a free agent, and all the Mets would get as compensation is a lowly fourth-round draft pick, due to being in the payroll penalty box.

So where do we go from here?  Since sweeping the Nationals and taking two of three from the Rockies, the Mets are three games over .500, in possession of the third wild card spot.  They are only four games behind the Atlanta Braves for the top Wild Card spot and even more interestingly, second place in the division.  Wouldn’t passing them be sweet?

After the break, the Mets take their 9-5 July record to Miami for three games against the lowly Marlins, then to the Bronx for two games against crosstown rival Yankees, before returning home for four against the Braves and three against the Twins.  This means they will conclude the month with nine games against playoff-caliber teams.

My prediction is that the will go 8-4 the rest of the way to close out the month at 17-9 and be sitting at seven games over .500 and possibly in the top Wild Card spot.  At that point we need to be buyers and bring in two more relievers to solidify the pen.  Stearns took the first step by trading for Phil Maton, formerly of the Rays, to bring an experienced arm for the bullpen. That was a nice start but not nearly enough.

As of today, there are only eight NL teams over .500, with one of them being the Mets.  It is not farfetched that the Mets have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs, but when they do, how far can we honestly expect them to go?  Clearly the most-glaring deficiency is the bullpen, where no lead seems to be safe.  Then there is also right field where a collection of players such as DJ Stewart (.635 OPS), Tyrone Taylor (.664 OPS), Jeff McNeil (.591 OPS) and Ben Gamel (.556 OPS in nine games) have had limited success.  With no solid return date on the books for Starling Marte, the pickup of one more solid player for right field would be a great addition.

So with a team that has hit the fourth most home runs of any MLB team this season and clearly has shown the ability to put runs up on the board, how far will Stearns commit to moving prospects to dramatically bolster both the bullpen and right field situations?  Hopefully far.  Other teams know that the players they will be offering are likely free agents in waiting and essentially just 2024 rental pieces, but they will still want good value for them just like the Mets got at last year’s sell off.

They should start with players whose path to the majors are blocked by Lindor and  Nimmo and Alvarez, once the team hopefully signs him to a Brave’s like team friendly extension.  With Ronny Mauricio hopefully back for the 2025 season, they should look to give 24 year-old Brett Baty, a player without a strong fielding position, a fresh start somewhere else.

Then of course there is still the Polar Bear in the room.  If the Mets do move him at the deadline, it will be to a team that is strongly in the mix, and likely result in the return of some highly rated top prospects but not a player that can fortify this team in 2024.  That is certainly a good move for the future, but his departure would likely signal the demise of 2024.  While a big showing in the home run derby would increase his trade stock, at this point it seems we’d rather see him get his home run bat going so that he can start taking some pressure off his teammates and help lead us to higher 2024 heights.