So much for Mark Cohoon.
By just looking at his numbers, 21-7 with a 2.42 ERA combined and a near 4:1 SO/BB ratio in his first three years, all by the age of 22, fans would think Cohoon is the best prospect in the New York Mets’ organization.
That is, however, until you look at his most important statistic: velocity. That number sits at sub-90 miles-per-hour and brings notice to the old adage in the scout game: Your only as good a prospect as the zip on your fastball.
Scouts’ prospect lists are littered with pitchers who’ve achieved nothing but can throw the heater 95 miles-per-hour. After all, scouts will tell you that a pitcher can be taught a breaking ball or changeup, but you can’t teach them how to throw 95.
Now, nobody will say for certain that pitchers who can’t reach 90 will not be successful – Greg Maddux struggled to reach that mark and is one of the best pitchers of our generation – but the odds are against it.
A quick and crude check of all the 10-game winners in major league baseball this season indicates that 38 of the 46 hurlers have fastballs that average 90 miles per hour or more, according to fangraphs.com. And only two of those eight velocity-challenged hurlers have more than 11 wins.
To further the research, of the fifteen 20-game winners since 2004, only Mike Mussina and Brandon Webb had sub-90 mph fastballs.
And the last homegrown Met to win 10 games with a fastball that averaged less than 90 miles? Dillon Gee has won 11 games this season with an average heater of 89.7 (and we all knew what we thought of him heading into the season) but prior to that the last double-digit winner was likely Bobby Jones in 2000 (no statistics on velocity existed prior to the middle of this decade.)
Despite all of Cohoon’s achievements on the mound in three years, including the Mets’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year award in 2010, the lefthander came into this season ranked as only the Mets’ 10th best pitching prospect by Baseball America.
The 2008 12th-round pick out of North Central Texas JC ranked behind two pitchers who entered 2011 with one career appearance between them (Steve Matz, Erik Goeddel) and a third who had a 5.03 ERA in the rookie-based Gulf Coast League (Juan Urbina).
Why the disrespect? Well, all three throw in the 90s. And it’s no surprise that the other six pitchers who rank ahead of Cohoon all throw harder as well.
And it appears the scouts were right, as lack of velocity is finally catching up to Cohoon.
The Burleson, Texas native is just 3-7 with a 6.49 ERA in 13 starts at Class AAA after starting the season at Class AA 1-3 with a 3.81 ERA in 13 starts. He can no longer rely on his changeup, breaking ball and pin-point control to fool hitters in the upper levels.
“It is a different level but he’s growing and getting better,” Class AAA Buffalo manager Tim Teufel told the Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington.
Cohoon also needs to develop another pitch against righthanders, who are clubbing him at a .340 clip at Class AAA.
Even though Cohoon is still young and could make the necessary adjustments down the road, the numbers suggest the odds are against him. And many other pitchers in the Mets’ organization as well.
AROUND THE MINORS: Class AA SS Jordany Valdespin was promoted to Class AAA Buffalo this week. The Eastern League All-Star hit .297/.341./.483 with 24 doubles, 15 homers, 51 RBI and 33 stolen bases. He ranked fifth in stolen bases, sixth in total hits (120) and ninth in batting average (.297) in the Eastern League. Valdespin started 78 games at shortstop for Binghamton and 25 more at second base. He was 4-for-16 with two doubles and two errors in his first four games with Buffalo. … Binghamton RHP Jeurys Familia struck out seven over five shutout innings in a 7-0 win over Richmond on Saturday night. It was his third start since returning from the disabled list. He is 3-3 with a 3.78 ERA in 13 starts for the B-Mets with 27 walks and 77 strikeouts in 66 2/3 innings.