Counting players on the 40-man roster and the 60-day DL (which doesn’t count
against the 40-man), the Mets currently have 45 guys on their Major League
roster. Between now and the November 18th deadline for submitting reserve lists,
that will be whittled down substantially. Some players will depart as free
agents, some will be released, and some will be removed from the 40-man roster,
but kept within the organization. There are a few reasons that the herd needs to
be culled:
1) The Mets have several prospects eligible for the Rule 5 draft that they will
be interested in protecting. In order to protect an eligible player, the Mets
must add him to their 40-man roster.
2) The Mets will likely want the option of selecting other teams’ players in the
Rule 5 draft. Last year, they added Brad Emaus and Pedro Beato in this fashion.
In fact, they’ve taken at least one player in each of the last four Rule 5
drafts. In order to select a player, the team has to have room on its 40-man
roster.
3) In order to sign any free agent to a Major League contract, the Mets need to
have room on the 40-man.
From our base of 45, we’ll start with the easiest players to subtract. The
following 7 players are eligible for free agency: Miguel Batista, Chris Capuano,
Scott Hairston, Willie Harris, Jason Isringhausen, Jose Reyes, and Chris Young.
In addition to those 7 players, Ryota Igarashi has a clause in his contract
(similar to Hisanori Takahashi’s last season) that obligates the Mets to release
him by a certain date if he hasn’t been extended. Removing those 8 leaves us
with the 37 players currently on the Major League roster who are under the Mets’
control for the 2012 season. Breaking it down by position, we get:
C (3) – Mike Nickeas, Ronny Paulino, Josh Thole
IF (10) – Ike Davis, Nick Evans, Zach Lutz, Daniel Murphy, Val Pascucci, Josh
Satin, Ruben Tejada, Justin Turner, Jordany Valdespin, David Wright
OF (6) – Mike Baxter, Jason Bay, Lucas Duda, Fernando Martinez, Angel Pagan,
Jason Pridie
SP (8) – RA Dickey, Dillon Gee, Jenrry Mejia, Jon Niese, Mike Pelfrey, Armando
Rodriguez, Johan Santana, Chris Schwinden
RP (10) – Manny Acosta, Manny Alvarez, Pedro Beato, Taylor Buchholz, Tim Byrdak,
DJ Carrasco, Danny Ray Herrera, Bobby Parnell, Josh Stinson, Dale Thayer
Under Contract (6)
Wright, Bay, Dickey, Santana, Byrdak, and Carrasco are already under contract
for 2012. Their spots on the 40-man can only be opened up if they were to be
traded or released. I expect all 5 of them to be retained, at least for now.
There are camps that want to or even expect to see Wright traded, but I don’t
see it happening. And Carrasco, who is owed $1.2M for 2012, is certainly a
release candidate, but I think that if that happens, it will be in Spring
Training, and not this fall.
Arbitration Eligible (5)
Paulino ($1.35M 2011 salary), Pagan ($3.5M), Pelfrey ($3.925M), Acosta (~$415K),
and Buchholz ($600K) are eligible for arbitration. I expect the Mets to retain
Paulino, Pagan, Pelfrey, and Acosta. Pagan and Pelfrey have become lightning
rods for the ire of a vocal portion of the Mets’ fanbase this season, but my bet
is that both survive the winter. Buchholz, on the other hand, has spent the bulk
of the season dealing with physical and psychological issues. If the Mets
believe he’s worked through them, I could see them bringing him back. However,
I’d expect it to be on a minor league incentive-laden contract, rather than an
arbitration offer. Buchholz is the only Met I believe will be non-tendered this
December.
League Minimum Hitters (15)
Thole, Davis, Murphy, Tejada, Turner, and Duda are safe. I also fully expect
Lutz, Satin, Valdespin, and Martinez to be retained, though I see those 4
starting off in Buffalo. The remaining 5 players are Nickeas, Evans, Pascucci,
Baxter, and Pridie.
Nickeas was the 2011 team’s third catcher and still has options remaining.
Severe lack of depth at the position in the upper minors indicates that he’ll
fill that same role in 2012.
I have to believe that Nick Evans, who has probably been DFA’d twice since you
started reading this, will be given one last chance to make the team in Spring
Training. His strong August and September have probably bought him that much.
However if he doesn’t break camp with the team, I expect he’ll make himself a
free agent and try his luck elsewhere.
My interpretation of Val Pascucci’s call-up is that it was a tip of the cap (and
a nice, fat bonus) to a guy who has been a consummate professional playing for
the Bisons over the past 2 seasons. He may stay with the org, but if so, it’ll
be on a minor league contract in Buffalo.
Baxter was a second half waiver claim, and he also has options remaining. I say
he sticks on the 40-man roster, but most likely starts 2012 as depth in Buffalo.
Jason Pridie’s out of options and has done (and been asked to do) virtually
nothing since Angel Pagan returned from injury. His roster spot is vulnerable. I
think he gets DFA’d in November.
League Minimum Pitchers (11)
I see Gee, Mejia, Niese, Schwinden, Beato, Parnell, and Stinson as safe. The
remaining 4 players are Rodriguez, Alvarez, Herrera, Thayer.
The Mets liked Rodriguez enough last year to protect him from the Rule 5 draft
despite his never having pitched above low A-ball. If there’s something they
really like about him, he could keep his spot, but it definitely looks like it’s
in jeopardy.
They protected Alvarez last year to keep him from walking as a minor league free
agent and because they thought he might be able to help out in the bullpen
following a strong 2010 campaign. He only threw 10 mediocre innings before
losing the rest of his season to an arm injury. He could be back next year, but
I’d imagine he’ll be outrighted to Buffalo this fall.
One of the players to be named later in the Francisco Rodriguez trade, Herrera
has pitched very well in his short stint with the Mets (see what I did there?).
With Tim Byrdak signing a contract extension, the Mets would have to carry two
LOOGYs in order to keep Herrera rostered. I like him, but I don’t see that
happening. Herrera, who’s out of options, could be outrighted to Buffalo to
clear a roster spot, although he’s not a lock to clear waivers.
Thayer is also out of options, and just seems to replaceable to keep his spot.
Like a few of the others I’ve mentioned, he could be back with the Mets in 2012,
but I think it would be on a minor league contract.
Accounting for all of those expected departures or outrights, here’s what the
40-man roster would look like:
C (3) – Mike Nickeas, Ronny Paulino, Josh Thole
IF (9) – Ike Davis, Nick Evans, Zach Lutz, Daniel Murphy, Josh Satin, Ruben
Tejada, Justin Turner, Jordany Valdespin, David Wright
OF (5) – Mike Baxter, Jason Bay, Lucas Duda, Fernando Martinez, Angel Pagan
SP (7) – RA Dickey, Dillon Gee, Jenrry Mejia, Jon Niese, Mike Pelfrey, Johan
Santana, Chris Schwinden
RP (6) – Manny Acosta, Pedro Beato, Tim Byrdak, DJ Carrasco, Bobby Parnell, Josh
Stinson
Click here to read Part II
You did a better job on this than I did.
I’m linking to it tomorrow.
Mack
Thanks Mack. I really appreciate it.
Nice breakdown Chris. One question for you – why do you consider Stinson as safe? He was not particularly impressive this year in the minors and he’s not looked good at all in his brief stint in the majors.
A fair question. I see Stinson as still very much a work in progress. He’s young (turned 23 in March), he’s tall, he throws a hard fastball and an effective slider, 2011 was his first option year, and he only made the full-time conversion from starting to the bullpen in June. Since making the transition, Stinson logged a mere 36.1 AA innings in 25 games, but in that time he did pitch to a 3.35 FIP. As for his September cup of coffee in the Majors, it’s hard to pass too much judgment on a kid’s first 10.1 innings. And while his ERA in those 10.1 innings is an ugly 7.94, his FIP is a much more palatable 3.31 (read: his strand rate is not going to stay at 43.8% forever).
It’s probably silly of me to quote FIPs that are based on 10 or 30 innings anyway, but most of the time, minor league stats, even the ones that are robust enough to be credible, are only telling part of the story. The fact that the Mets even bestowed a call-up on Stinson this year implies to me that their own internal talent evaluators carry much more weight than minor league numbers. Maybe I’m misreading that, maybe not.
Ultimately with Stinson, as with many of these guys, it’s probably more of a gut call than anything. But FWIW, if I were to further refine things, and split the 7 league minimum pitchers I labelled as safe into to groups, I’d put Stinson with Chris Schwinden and have the other 5 (Niese, Gee, Mejia, Beato, and Parnell) ranked a tier higher on the roster spot security spectrum.
[…] Yesterday’s walkthrough of one possible route of roster reduction left the Mets’ 40-man roster looking like this: […]