In 2013, Juan Lagares had a terrific defensive season and a poor offensive one. The Mets were concerned enough that in the offseason they signed Chris Young and told him he’d have a chance to play some in center field. While Young bombed in 2014, Lagares was again terrific defensively. At the plate, he had a respectable .703 OPS (NL average CF: .726) thanks to a .341 BABIP. Unlike a year ago, the Mets did not bring in anyone to challenge Lagares this offseason.
Only an extreme pessimist doubts Lagares’ defensive chops at this point in time. And management seems to have done a 180 on its thoughts about him offensively. Not only is there seemingly no concern about his ability to hit MLB pitching, all indications are that he will serve as the team’s leadoff hitter in 2015, even with his career .295 OBP against RHP.
While most of Lagares’ offensive gains in 2014 can be traced directly to his BABIP, one area where he made a noticeable improvement was in the running game. After tallying 6 SB in 2013, Lagares notched 13 last year, with nine of those coming in his last 18 games. Will a move to the top of the order indicate Lagares will run even more in 2015? Here’s what we think:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albanesius | 600 | .285 | .335 | .360 | 9 | 58 | 19 |
| Ferguson | 500 | .260 | .320 | .370 | 4 | 45 | 25 |
| Hangley | 692 | .273 | .342 | .410 | 7 | 52 | 28 |
| Joura | 437 | .242 | .281 | .352 | 7 | 34 | 26 |
| Koehler | 475 | .270 | .315 | .360 | 3 | 50 | 20 |
| McCarthy | 535 | .296 | .331 | .404 | 11 | 51 | 21 |
| Netter | 623 | .291 | .341 | .410 | 12 | 71 | 24 |
| Newman | 550 | .265 | .320 | .365 | 6 | 50 | 20 |
| Rogan | 583 | .275 | .310 | .390 | 7 | 52 | 26 |
| Vasile | 575 | .250 | .290 | .370 | 4 | 35 | 15 |
| Walendin | 600 | .259 | .302 | .369 | 6 | 50 | 20 |
Our forecasts are all over the map. Charlie Hangley, Julian McCarthy and Matt Netter have offensive forecasts, which combined with stellar defense, might merit All-Star consideration. Meanwhile, Mike Koehler joins me in thinking he won’t even reach 500 PA. An interesting thing is how many RBIs many of the forecasts have. Last year, all Mets hitters combined in the first spot in the order had 40 RBIs. Nine of the 11 writers here think Lagares alone will top that mark, although it’s unclear if they think he’ll remain in the leadoff spot all season.
Here’s our official projection for Lagares:
During the year, my perception is that everyone is much more bullish on Lagares offensively than me. With that as the backdrop, it’s a bit surprising that our forecast isn’t more optimistic. The biggest surprise is that we don’t project more steals. After the great success Lagares had late, when he not only stole nine bases in 18 games but did it with a 90% success rate, my expectation was that we would see many 30+ totals for him.
Let’s see how our totals compare to those currently available on FanGraphs:
| PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | SB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets360 | 561 | .270 | .320 | .370 | 7 | 50 | 22 |
| Steamer | 584 | .249 | .290 | .352 | 8 | 49 | 12 |
| ZiPS | 542 | .264 | .305 | .370 | 6 | 55 | 13 |
Our projection is a tad more aggressive than the others, except in steals where we clearly have the most optimistic forecast. The computer models may or may not know his late-season success and they certainly don’t take into account his expected lineup position. It would be a surprise if we weren’t the closest to being right on steals.
Check back Saturday for our next projection entry.
I am in the bullish camp on Lagares his minor league progression shows he adapts and then excels as he gets more experience at higher levels . My biggest concern is his durability, he has not exactly been the picture of health the last few years even as young as he is and this year they are adding increased base stealing attempts to his work load which is taxing on the body not to mention the Cuddyer signing means he will have to cover both CF and RF this year as well.
Hopefully his body can take the pounding, if it can I expect another step forward just like last year.
I agree with You, Brian… most of what I saw was BABIP. Isolated Slugging and At Bat Management (BB’s, K’s) were mostly similar to his past.
I also saw some amazing swings and results… demonstrations of raw talent and athletic ability. I saw two strike “take out” pitches driven to gaps. That kind of stuff makes him compelling.
Very Lucky…and awsomely talented!!!!
Young athletic players don’t get more athletic…and pitchers learn how to pitch to “athletic hitters”—especially when “something counts”. For all the critics of the Mets “approach” to batting, Lagares could use an approach!
Lagares is in the balance…. he can solve his approach and play in a few allstar games, or he can flail and fade to a 5th OF’er. He needs at least a 680 OPS to stay in the mix….and he needs to become a reliable 700 OPS to keep his slot. I believe he can be a reliable 720-760 guy, but he needs to drive that with some better ideas at the plate.
I remember when he was signed as an international free agent one of the Mets scouts involved with him had also scouted Jose Reyes years earlier before he was signed. He said at the time of the signing that Lagares was a more developed SS prospect than Reyes was at a comparable age. We all know how that turned out but the fact of the matter remains as you said he is extremely physically gifted.
Juan Lagares is the real deal and will prove it if the let him play !!
Collins really botched up April and May last year with EY and others, in and out and in and out. Leave the Gold Glover alone and he will come up with decent offensive numbers and a repeat Golden Glove. I say he will come up with :
.270 10 HR 50 RBI 25 SB
If so, he can yell at Terry Collins “How ya like me now ???”
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Brian,
Is there a typo on Mike Koehler’s projections? Only 5 RBIs in 475 at bats including 3 HRs? Highly improbable, I would think.
Yes, it’s been updated to 50. Thanks for reminding me.
This kid could win an MVP someday.
Lagares has a lot of talent and raw ability. I think he will be a base stealer but TC would be foolish not a reign in his attempts so as not to wear him down. Juan with his 387/488/875 vs LHP should lead off against a lefty but he should drop down to 7th vs RHP. TC shouldn’t start him every single game and wear him out either. Judicious rest would keep him fresh. If TC can manage Lagares properly then I think Lagares will improve. For 2015 :
PA 361, Avg 275, OBP 317, Slg 401, HR 5 RBI 48, SB 30
370 PAs? A gold Glove CFer plays every day!
Woke up this morning to a typo: 561 PA . sorry
Very enjoyable reading everyone’s thoughts. Enjoyable because they were varied and many good points presented. However, we all have an opinion and here is mine: .275/.320/.410, 70 R, 55 RBI, 13 HR, 28 SB.
While I hope to see Lagares just go off offensively, I feel he needs to mature to the point where he can produce when the other team expects it. Word is now out to keep an eye on his stealing, so it will be harder. Still, I expect him to overcome. It’s just hard to expect that he could stay in the leadoff spot all year knowing what we know about how Lagares chases sliders off the plate. Until I see him overcome this habit, I cannot be more optimistic.
The biggest influence on Lagares this year will be the addition of Kevin Long, the Mets first real hitting coach in ages. I look for increased walks and doubles, 30 steals and 80 runs if Wright is back to form, and Duda continues his success from last year.
The picture that was used in the story is all I need. Neither corner is worth anything defensively, so the only outfielder is Lagares. I think it’s important to note that winning a game 2-1 is the same as 4-3. His run saving is offense.
Of course I need him to hit more consistently, but I’m totally down with his defensive play as his major addition to the team.
I like him and think he clearly merits everyday play in CF — through the bumps and valleys and sour stretches offensively.
He’s not at all a leadoff hitter and I worry about that role for him, the potential confusion. He’s more of natural hitter than an analytical hitter and I’d hate to see him tied into knots (which I think is what happened to d’Arnaud, before he finally decided to start ignoring the coaches and just hit).
The body is good. Could be a terrific #8 hitter. It’s not that the Mets don’t have a true leadoff hitter; they don’t have anything close to resembling a leadoff hitter. Still, I’m a little suprised that the consensus here is for him to do worse in 2015.
Finally, what impressed me most last year was the way the kid stood tall. He struck me as gritty and determined to “show ’em.” I really believe that SA did not like Lagares; he paid relatively big money to bring in CY to play CF and hit homers. If Lagares faltered at all, he was going to be out of a job. In the end, he make that impossible. No easy task, to achieve when management is rooting against you. It says good things about Juan Lagares.
Remember TC in Spring Training, how OBP was more important than defense, and how he believed that EY was important to the Mets offense. They were leaning EY & CY combo with Lagares as 4th wheel. Juan ruined their plans. Thankfully CY had that early injury to give Lagares a fair shot — and he took it.
I understand why management had their doubts about Lagares heading into 2014. What surprises me is that all of those doubts have seemingly vanished.
The glove alone makes him valuable and makes him worth starting, if you believe the defensive metrics. Maybe Lagares repeating his outstanding defense in 2014 is what turned management into his camp.
My offensive projection above was the most pessimistic. Even if this is what he hits, he’s worth starting every day if his defense is at the same level of 2013/2014.
But it’s easy for me to say that from my comfortable chair. How is management going to feel if he hits like a backup SS, especially from the leadoff spot? Recent history is not kind for starting outfielders who don’t hit. Do they stay the course and keep writing his name into the lineup every day if at the end of May he has a .600 OPS?
I know, Brian, it’s a tricky issue. Last year in our “predictions” column at @ 2 Guys I saw a platoon of Lagares/MdM. I suppose that’s still possible.
I felt that after 2013, Lagares was fully revealed and absolutely, clearly deserved the starting job in CF — it was, in my view, monumentally dumb for SA to go after CY and entice him with a shot to play CF. There were so many other areas to address!
I hope that Lagares will be given enough room to struggle offensively and stay on the field. To shift him in May would be awful, IMO, and an example of a team waiting for a player to fail.
I do think he’s a #8 hitter, however. If TC starts playing Tejada — and I think there’s even money that will eventually happen — then it’s awfully tough to keep a .650 OPS guy in CF.
I think Lagares can put up a .725 OPS, most years. This team, as constructed, needs him to play well.
Wanted to add that I was glad to see him add steals as a weapon in his tool belt. I don’t think they should overdo that because of wear and tear and, also, I don’t think he has that kind of speed.
His legs are so important, I would not get crazy with the SBs for Juan. 25-30 sounds like a good number.
SA has put together an extremely slooooow team — a poor defensive team — and a team without a leadoff hitter. Lagares is the outlier (the guy they didn’t value just a year ago). But it’s a mistake to ask him to try to become Ricky Henderson.