Jason Heyward is going to get paid this off-season, and he’s going to get paid a lot. Part of that has to do with how Major League Baseball free agency works, what with insane contracts that get crazier and crazier each year. Most of it, though, is because of just how great a player he’s been over the last six seasons and the potential for more. We’ll get to that second piece in a bit, but let’s first look at some of the numbers.
Heyward made his major league debut in 2010, and over the last six seasons has put up the following fWAR:
- 2010: 4.9
- 2011: 1.9
- 2012: 6.5
- 2013: 3.4
- 2014: 5.2
- 2015: 6.0
That 2011 should jump out at you for two reasons. First, a drop off in a player’s second year isn’t all that shocking as the league adjusts to the player and the player struggles to adjust back. It’s the sophomore slump, and it’s nothing out of the norm. It stands out like a sore thumb here because of just how it pales in comparison to his first year. Second, he didn’t just rebound in 2012, he came back with a vengeance. For what it’s worth, he also worked through shoulder trouble throughout 2011 that exacerbated his struggle to adjust. We’ll get back to that 2012 in a bit as well.
What makes Heyward such a fantastic player is that he derives his value from both sides of the ball. The lowest his wRC+ has ever been besides the 97 in 2011 was 110 in 2014. In each of the other seasons it was 120 or higher. He has a career UZR of 96.2 while playing mostly right field, though he also has played center field as recently as this past season (this is important here). His arm is also above average. In short, and at a high level, Heyward is pretty much the total package.
Now, let’s talk about the earlier “potential for more” comment. The drawback to these large free agent contracts are that you pay a player for past production and not really for what they’re going to do for you going forward. That’s mostly true and is reflected in Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson’s reluctance to offer what he calls “second generation” contracts. Here’s the kicker, though: after six great years to start his career, Heyward is still only 26 years old.
You’re paying for past production, sure, but you’re also literally getting all of Heyward’s peak years at the beginning of the contract. You’re paying him for what he was, what he is, and what he will be going forward. When combined with the fact that a player with his level of production and his age is actually hitting the free agency market in a time when young stars are usually extended, that’s an incredibly unique situation.
Diving a bit deeper into the numbers reveals an interesting aspect to the type of player Heyward has become. His 2012 season seemed to signal his true arrival and confirmation that his 2011 was an aberration. He launched 27 homers with an ISO of .210. A young masher with elite defense has superstar written all over him. Then something very interesting happened. He hasn’t come anywhere close to that type of power in the three seasons since. That’s just fine.
Now, the more cynical of us may point to that as a reason to not sign him to the type of contract he’s going to get. The problem with that line of thinking is that it ignores the fact that, as a hitter, Heyward has become a player that fits absolutely perfectly with the Mets’ approach and what they need on the current roster.
His power output dropped significantly from 2013 to 2015, but so did his strikeout rate. His walk rate crept back up to where it was pre-2012, as did his on base percentage. His contact rate has steadily climbed since 2012 and his swinging strike rate has steadily gone down in that same span. In short, and after watching the Mets feast or famine on the home run ball during the postseason, Heyward is the perfect player for the Mets to insert into their lineup.
His ground ball rate did shoot up in 2015, which may actually be a something to be concerned about. However, it did come at the expense of his fly ball rate rather than his line drive rate, which tempers the concern a bit. His percentage of hard and medium hit balls remained consistent as well, so perhaps the ground ball rate is an anomaly.
The best part is that Heyward still has more potential to tap. It could be that he remains the type of hitter he is now while being able to add a few more home runs back into his arsenal. It’s certainly not unrealistic to see him hitting around 20 for many seasons to come, especially as a left-hander playing half of his games at Citi Field.
A major-yet-temporary caveat here is that Heyward is primarily a right fielder and the Mets currently have Curtis Granderson entrenched there for two more seasons. The good news is that, as mentioned earlier, Heyward is perfectly capable of playing in center field for the next two years before sliding back over to right. While his defensive value is lower in center than in right, he’s still shown to be an at least average defender there. If the team was willing to shove Yoenis Cespedes out there, there should be no qualms about having Heyward man center.
The elephant in the room is the money he’s going to demand and the perception, which the team has yet to disprove, that the Mets simply will not shell out that kind of cash for anybody. However, reports surfaced this summer about the team’s interest in Robinson Cano after the 2013 season. It seems as though the Mets downplayed their interest in Cano and, reportedly, may have been willing to outbid the Yankees offer of $175 million before the Mariners lost their minds and offered $240 million.
The belief, while not necessarily popular or entirely believable yet, is that the Mets have the money for the right player. Heyward epitomizes what the Mets clearly lacked during the World Series: great defense and an additional consistently good bat that does not depend on the long ball to be valuable. Who is the right player to open the coffers for if not Heyward?
I would rather sign Cespedes, than Hayward. Big reason no loss of a draft pick. Anything longer than 3 or maybe 4 years is insanity on either.
Mets would lose the 24th pick, but by losing Murphy they’d get a supplemental pick somewhere in the 30s, I believe. Of course, that’s making the assumption that Murphy declines the QO and signs elsewhere. A highly probable outcome, but not a sure thing.
So it would be a net loss in terms of draft position, but not a completely lost pick.
Boy is he talented. Players like him are generational talent and come around once every 25 years.
Unfortunately, it seems like he is always a small adjustment from superstardom. If he came to New York he could quickly turn into the best outfielder in their history… Beltran, Dykstra, and Strawberry have nothing on him in terms of raw talent, in my mind.
The sad part? The Mets will never pay him.
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Non-tender Duda, move Wright to first, Flores to third and sign Heyward to 8 years for $200 million. Equals 5 years of playoff baseball for Mets w/o breaking the bank.
Duda has trade value, they’d never non-tender him. Other than that, I like your thinking. I have been thinking for a while, I’d trade Duda, Harvey, and Cechinni for Andrelton Simmons and Freeman.
On the flip side, giving a guy big $ and years for what he may do can be just as risky. I’ve never been a big fan. His swing has too any holes for my taste.
Sabermetricians love this guy. A great defensive corner outfielder with a solid but unspectacular bat is nice to have but not worth a franchise player contract.
If he can handle centerfield, Heyward is absolutely a guy I consider for a long-term deal. Good defense, doesn’t strike out a ton, just a solid ballplayer.
I cringed when the Cards got him. I’d love having him for the next few years.
Hayward could get at least 7 years. Will the Mets go 7/$150? I doubt it. I would love him but that’s not happening.
If Heyward is giving up 3 of his prime years (31-33) Gus then 7/175 is more closer to what he will want. I wonder if he’ll sign for 7 but have an opt out clause after 4 so he can cash in again at 30?
I thought that also Pete, but these guys (or really their agents) want as much money now as possible. Down the road will take care of itself. Everyone wants the guaranteed money.
He’s staying put in St. Louis, so don’t get getting your knickers in a bind! Go Cardinals!
While I would love to get Heyward, the Cards will never let him leave.
Heyward would be a good signing to play center field for two years and then slide over to right field in two years. His only deficiency is a career platoon split of 230/309/351 against left handers. He just turned 26 and still has his prime years ahead of him. MLBTR projects a 10/200 contract with a player opt out option in a few years. If the Mets budget is only around 110-115 then this signing is unaffordable.
The Mets offensive problems start in centerfield with a non improved Lagares who lost his elite defensive rating with an injured arm. Heyward or Cespedes would address the problem. On a smaller scale transaction, Denard Span should also be considered.
I think somebody is kidding himself.
Heyward has been in the League 6 years, played for two teams, and neither of his employers saw fit to slot this excellent right fielder into center field. The Braves ran Michael Bourn and BJ Upton out there instead of Heyward, and, oh yeah, Nate McLouth and even Rick Ankeil; they put up with some really bad offense rather than installing Heyward in centerfield. But now he’s our centerfielder?
Then there’s this: Heyward’s WAR numbers are impressive, but his offense numbers have averaged at about 3.0 per season. The simple fact is, for much of his career he was seen as a mild disappointment. His raw numbers, counting stats and the like, were created at Turner Field and Busch Stadium, both of them better hitting environments than Citifield.
The fact is, he hasn’t become his teams’ centerfielder for a reason — what reason I can’t say, but it wasn’t because he was blocked by a star. And frankly in right field I doubt he would be an improvement over Granderson; a little better “D”, a little less “O.”
What I think the Mets need to do is try and get a serious read on which Juan Lagares will show up next spring. Back when he was healthy, he was a pretty good player, remember? In fact, those WAR ratings we are all so impressed with of Heyward’s, are hardly better than the 5.5 WAR that Lagares put up in 2014, which incidentally led the Mets and was 7th among position players in the National League.
We know what Lagares can contribute; we all know that he wasn’t the same player in 2015. Before I would replace him I would try and ascertain whether he needs replacing. And if I decided to replace him, I think I would pick a centerfielder.
Your first point ignores the fact that the Braves didn’t put Heyward in CF because they didn’t have to put him there. They had no one but Heyward in RF because they didn’t have anyone else to put there that would force him in CF. That’s not the case with the Mets. They have Granderson, who can’t play CF at this point, and Heyward could handle it for the two years remaining on his contract. In 233 innings in CF while playing for the Braves and Cardinals, Heyward has been just fine.
To your second point, a 3.0 WAR in general is valued at about what he’ll get per year on the market. And that’s just his offense. In 2013 and 2015, Citi was more of a hitters park for home runs than both Busch and Turner, whereas in 2014 Citi was worse.
As for Lagares, if we’re going to switch to using bWAR then let’s compare that 5.5 against Heyward’s bWAR instead of the fWAR I used in the article:
6.4, 2.5, 5.8, 3.7, 6.2, 6.5
Lagares’ only year with an offensive WAR above 1 was that 5.5 year in 2014. What we know about Lagares is that had one good year with the bat, but that he derives most of his value from his defense. When he doesn’t have that defense, as in 2015, he’s barely above replacement level.
Sitting on the sidelines and hoping that 2014 Lagares, at the plate, is the real Lagares rather than the version we saw in 2013 and 2015 is a poor strategy IMO. And that’s assuming he regains the elite defense that ensured he would provide value even with struggles at the plate.
This doesn’t even mention the fact that, as much as I’m excited about what Conforto can potentially bring, we’re all just kind of assuming he’s going to provide surplus value in LF. Heyward also hedges against issues there as well.
Waiting for Lagares would be a risk if the goal is to defend the division title.
Lagares without his elite defense is just barely above replacement level and a drag on the batting order. At this point in his career, he is a platoon player.
If the Mets have room in their budget for a $20+m player and can still make other necessary improvements to the roster then signing a Heyward or Cepedes would be great. If signing either one hamstrings the budget then their sights should be set on a player like Denard Span. If Lagares’ arm does not respond, I would not want to be stuck with Kirk as his platoon partner or ,heaven forbid, an OF of Conforto, Granderson(CF) and Cuddyer.
If Lagares can up the doubles he can manage this. Let’s be careful in our assessment of Cespedes who was atrocious on both sides of the ball with the bright lights of October shining. Conforto is muscle. Grandy too. We need Lagares defense to go back to 13 and 14 seasons. Again we hear the arm is not a worry. Look, I see that Lagares fell short of Cespedes, but that was mostly pre Conforto. I want more batting average.
With all the references to Lagares, I’m surprised that no one has brought up that while the team doesn’t believe Lagares needs surgery, wasn’t that the same diagnosis last winter?
Indeed.
I don’t know if we should trash the Mets’ medical team but I don’t think we should take their diagnoses as beyond questioning, either. Hopefully Lagares gets a second opinion.
Metsense moving Cuddyer and Niese would give the Met’s the necessary room to make that deal. Montero if healthy would vie for the 5th starter until Wheeler is ready. Between Murphy, Gee, Parnell and Colon that’s close to 30 million off the books. The additional revenue from the post season should allow the Wilpons to increase payroll (120 million?)
Your going to have to include money to move either of those guys. Cuddy probably $8M and Niese $3M
All things considered I’d take upton and move him to center
He is the only high expense QO free agent that we should sign. I’d prefer we sign him for a max of 6 years with a player opt out clause after 3 years. I like my players to stay hungry. If we lose him after 3 years, then so be it… we’ll need to pony up a huge amount of cash for our starters in three years, anyway and if he opts out it means he likely mashed for us for at least two of those years and i bet that means more WS appearances. We could also consider trading Lagares for a set up reliever and a good prospect.
Blaiseda. With teams like Detroit and Toronto in need of starters Niese at 9 million would be a good option at the 3 or 4 SP. Can think of several other teams like the Rangers and Mariners as well. I wouldn’t look to include $ on any Niese deal. Just accept a lower prospect instead. With Cuddyer you would have to move him to an AL team (where he belonged in the first place) where he can DH and play an occasional first base. At 4-6 million discount while again accepting lower prospects as well. Addition by subtraction.
I’m still sticking with my gut that he gets 200 mil easy. The question is how close to 300 mil he can get, and whether he wants an opt out after 3-4 years and how much that will cost him. Remember, this is the youngest FA to hit the market since A-rod.
Unless you’re willing to pay him 30+ mil per season, there’s not a chance in hell you’re getting him for less than 7 years. There’s a possibility that we may also see the very first 11 or 12 year contract given out.
Upton should also do really well. 200 mil should be the goal for him, but i probably see him falling a bit short.
I’m not bullish on the market for Cespedes. I think there’s a chance he won’t see 100 mil and have to settle for a Pence-like 5/90
i was just wondering if Alderson (or the FO) is going to change gears now and look for a OBP player(s) who make contact and can provide an occasional pop with their bat(s). I know he’s going to miss the GM meetings but I am still hoping they sign a decent FA bat for CF.