Lucas Duda could have a huge 2016

The Mets have done a good job of adding, and retaining, talent and depth to their roster this off-season. They are, arguably, a more complete and better team than the 2015 version that stormed their way to the World Series. Fans are rightfully excited to see Yoenis Cespedes back in the team’s lineup, but they’re also looking forward to seeing their youngsters like Michael Conforto, Noah Syndergaard, and Jeurys Familia continue to take steps forward. There are concerns, though. For instance, what can we expect from David Wright and his chronic condition? Will Curtis Granderson even come close to replicating his 2015 in his age 35 season? Just how bad will Asdrubal Cabrera be at shortstop?

There’s one player that no one seems to be talking about much: Lucas Duda. It’s not surprising. At 6’4” but as reserved as any ballplayer out there, Duda is hard to miss. Still, he seems to find himself faded into the background noise more often than not. Unless he’s going on one of his tears at the plate, of course. What people should be talking about, however, is how he’s quietly put his head down and become one of the best hitters in baseball and a top ten first baseman since officially taking over the duty at the start of the 2014 season.

During those two years, Duda has averaged a wRC+ of 135, 17th best in the majors. If we consider only first basemen, he shoots up to number eight. If we consider his 6.4 total fWAR over those two seasons, his performance is slightly less remarkable. He’s a scratch defender at first, essentially, and provides no value on the base paths. He basically provides all of his value with his bat. That’s still pretty impressive, considering that 6.4 fWAR still puts him at number 10 for first basement through 2014-2015.

The flip side to his tears is that he tends to disappear at the plate for stretches. He’s a streaky hitter, no doubt about it. He can look absolutely unstoppable, as he did this past summer when he smashed nine home runs in eight games. Conversely, he was not very good in the 2015 playoffs as a whole, striking out 20 times in 54 plate appearances. It was the downside to his streakiness that appeared at the worst possible time.

It’s understandable that fans are frustrated with such highs and lows, but it’s important to keep in mind that a team should be constructed to absorb these streaks. That is, though one player is having a rough stretch, others should be there to pick him up. Duda is no longer the sole source for power in this Mets lineup as he has been in the past. He doesn’t need to be that guy anymore. The current roster is sprinkled with players that can carry the offense for a time if needed and the lineup is pretty well balanced.

What does that mean for 2016? Well, assuming relatively good health, we get to see a full season of Duda with strong lineup protection all around. When he goes on one of his tears, teams will not be able to simply pitch around him to get to an entire back half of a lineup made of replacement players (or worse). He hit 30 home runs in 2014 as part of an offense that ranked in the bottom third of the league. What can he do at the heart of an offense that could, potentially, be in the top half of the league or better? It could be a monster season for Duda and a very fun summer for Mets fans.