Mets 2019 projection review: Infielders

This is the second edition of an on-going series where we go back and revisit the preseason predictions made here at the site. Today we’ll look at the infielders and include catcher in this grouping. Let’s compare the Mets360 forecast to what the player actually did. And if a reader put in a particularly good prediction in the comments section, they’ll get a shout out now.

Wilson Ramos
Forecast – 495 PA, .260/.390/.440, 16 HR, 70 RBIs
Actual – 524 PA, .288/.351/.416, 14 HR, 73 RBIs

This was neither a particularly good nor a particularly bad forecast. Ramos ended up playing more games than expected, as the preseason thought was that the Mets would give more playing time to Travis d’Arnaud than clubs typically give to the backup catcher. Still, the PA weren’t that far off from what actually happened. Ramos had a better AVG but a worse OBP and SLG than anticipated. But the HR and RBIs were pretty good. In the comments section, Pete did good with a .285 AVG and a .330 OBP but he thought Ramos would only get 440 PA.

Pete Alonso
Forecast – 504 PA, .235/.320/.450, 25 HR, 75 RBIs
Actual – 693 PA, .260/.358/.583, 53 HR, 120 RBIs

Unlike the Ramos one, it’s pretty easy to categorize this projection. It missed badly. Alonso exceeded this forecast in every single category, often by big amounts. Projecting a .215 ISO for a Mets rookie is not something that happens every year. And Alonso blew past that with a .323 mark. It’s fun to think what Alonso might achieve next season with a year under his belt. And don’t you dare even think about suggesting a sophomore slump. Alonso’s projection came in a group of eight players, which drew very few comments. None of those that replied weighed in on the rookie.

Robinson Cano
Forecast – 523 PA, .283/.345/.445, 18 HR, 83 RBIs
Actual – 423 PA, .256/.307/.428, 13 HR, 39 RBIs

This one wasn’t a good forecast, either. But not many outlets would have predicted Cano to produce as poorly as he did in 2019. There were five computer forecasts available at the time the Mets360 projection was made and these all had Cano in a rather tight range in the triple slash categories. Marcel was very good on the PA end, as it had Cano with 439 PA. But Marcel had a .790 OPS and with a late surge, Cano produced a .735 mark. From the comments section, Mike Walczak predicted a .257 AVG but was off badly on HR and RBIs.

Todd Frazier
Forecast – 250 PA, .225/.310/.410, 10 HR, 36 RBIs
Actual – 499 PA, .251/.329/.443, 21 HR, 67 RBIs

Everyone thought that after missing around a month that Jed Lowrie would come back and be the team’s third baseman. Turns out that was optimistic. Frazier beat the forecast in the slash categories but if we double the forecast to match the actual playing time, the HR and RBIs would be pretty accurate. There were no forecasts for Frazier, who also came in the group of eight, from the comments section.

Amed Rosario
Forecast – 575 PA, .265/.310/.395, 12 HR, 50 RBIs
Actual – 655 PA, .287/.323/.432, 15 HR, 72 RBIs

In the first half of the season, this prediction was right on target. At the break, he was slashing .260/.299/.414 for a .713 OPS compared to a .705 OPS from the forecast. But Rosario posted an .804 OPS after the All-Star game. We were teased with a second-half hot streak in 2018 from Rosario, too. This one lasted longer but came with a .367 BABIP in his final 77 games. This projection also appeared in the group of eight. Gus said he thought Rosario’s AVG was too low but he did not say what he thought it would be.

3 comments for “Mets 2019 projection review: Infielders

  1. Peter Hyatt
    October 12, 2019 at 7:26 am

    Fascinating.

    In spite of “losing a step” (scouts on Mets trade) I think Cabo’s hands are the best I’ve ever seen at 2B on Mets teams.

    I think his casual style will hurt him as he ages, and the lack of hustle is a natural contagion in team psychology.

    (Kelenic May only impact fans’ psychology).

    • October 12, 2019 at 7:56 am

      I agree about Cano’s hands. I’d like to make a wager on Kelenic’s impact.

  2. NYM6986
    October 12, 2019 at 8:32 am

    I would look (actually pray) for a healthy season from Cano in 2020 because when healthy he can still be a force and his D at 2B was great at times. With Frazier almost definitely gone due to the surplus of other infielders, who will replace his offensive numbers while giving us that strong glove? If we settle on JD Davis in LF does that move McNeil to the hot corner? Might be the strongest defensive infield since the John Olerud days. Who would have imagined how strong defensively Alonso ended being since that was supposedly a black mark on him coming into SP? With the exception of straying too far off of first at times think of all the runs he saved with those scoops and stretches at first base and how many errors he saved teammates from having. If Rosario keeps moving forward, this infield will really play a major role both offensively and defensively in moving toward the playoffs.

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