Now that Zack Wheeler has departed Flushing for a lucrative contract with Philadelphia, the Mets have an opening in their starting rotation. Back in November GM Brodie Van Wagenen was quoted as saying relievers Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo could be in the starting rotation for 2020. Let’s take a look at the case for each one to be the fifth starter.
Gsellman pitched in 52 games for the Mets last year, exclusively out of the pen. The bullpen in general was poor, including Gsellman. The righty had a 2-3 record with a 4.66 ERA and a 4.13 FIP in 52 games, as noted above all in relief.
He’s pitched four seasons for the Mets, his first two years mainly as a starter, in his last two seasons he has pitched exclusively in relief. Only one season of his career so far could be rated as good, and that was his first in the league, 2016. He helped the Mets make it to the wild card game as a mid-season callup. He posted a 4-2 record with a sparkling 2.42 ERA and a fine FIP total of 2.63 in eight games, seven of them being starts. So he has proved he can be an effective starter, if he could regain that 2016 form. He has not shown that he can be effective as a reliever, at least yet.
He has a four pitch assortment of pitches, which is a useful mix for a starter. In 2019, according to FanGraphs, He threw fastballs almost 52% of the time, sliders almost 27%, curveballs at nearly 12%, and changeups about 10% of the time. The 26 year old had an average velocity of 95.7 MPH on his fastball last year, which was the highest of his career.
Lugo also made the majors in 2016, and he too was a factor in pushing the Mets to a wild card berth. He was 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA in 17 games, eight of them starts that season. Lugo then saw his production fall significantly in 2017 when he was mostly a starter, pitching to a 4.71 ERA and a 1.372 Whip. There is an explanation for his drop-off, Lugo suffered a partial tear of his UCL, and this elbow injury undoubtedly contributed to his poor season.
He bounced back in 2018, pitching in 54 games, only five of them starts, posting a 2.66 ERA, a 3.17 FIP, and a WHIP of 1.076. Lugo was even better in 2019, pitching 61 games, all in relief. He posted a 2.70 ERA, and a sensational 0.900 WHIP. Late in the year he took over the closer role and recorded six saves.
Lugo also boasts a four pitch repertoire. In 2019 he threw the fastball almost 57% of the time, the curveball 23%, the slider about 14% and the change just over 8 % of his pitches. His average fastball velocity was 94.4 mph. His curveball, which he threw more often than did the average pitcher, was noted for its high spin rate. Back in 2016 against Miami, Lugo dropped in a curveball measured by Statcast at 3,498 rpm, the highest spin rate ever recorded by any MLB pitcher up to that time.
Lugo has shown that he is the better pitcher of the two, with three good seasons and one sub-par year, likely because of his injury, which still affects him some. But Gsellman’s only good year was when he was mainly a starter.
Of course, the Mets could sign one of the free agent starting pitchers, or perhaps trade happy GM Van Wagenen could swing a trade for a starter. Either of those moves would probably consign both Lugo and Gsellman to the bullpen.
But if no such move occurs, Gsellman and Lugo would likely battle in out in spring training to earn that open starting spot. Bear in mind, though that Lugo still has that elbow problem, and starters will log significantly more innings than relievers, which means more stress on his already impaired right elbow. That of course would be an argument for keeping him as a reliever.
If Gsellman wins the starting spot, than Lugo will stay in the bullpen where he has been very successful, especially last year. If Lugo becomes the starter, then the already deficient relief corps takes a big hit. Another benefit of using Gsellman, or Lugo for that matter, as the fifth starter is that either one would command less money than a free agent starting pitcher. That would free up some bucks for management to corral a decent reliever or two, and hopefully help fix the team’s biggest deficiency.
Takeaways
1. The Mets have an opening in the rotation and have two good internal candidates for it.
2. Seth Lugo is one candidate, but moving him to a SP would hurt the already weak pen.
3. Robert Gsellman has been inconsistent in relief but was a good starter in 2016.
I’d put money on the Mets signing a starter so they can keep both Lugo and Gsellman in the bullpen but I concede that the Mets might be better off spending money on relief and giving one or both of these guys a shot.
Last night Brodie Van Alderson pulled out his best backwards windtalker double speak on MLB TV, saying they are spending the winter stretching out both Lugo and Gman “just in case” they need a starter, or one or both will be in the bull pen. He might as well have just answered the question about starting pitchers saying something like “we expect to have starting pitchers next season” for all it was worth. Sure, I guess ask a substantive question to the Mets FO and you get what you deserve in reply.
On the flip side, I was fascinated that Boras used his signing of Stras to focus on the Mets in his best passive aggressive way. The fact that he is still so upset about Harvey’s demise (“Harvey’s better, Harvey’s better”…oops…) is really something I find interesting. I cant see any reason he would take one of his players and put them on the Mets. It also looks like the Mets are living rent free between his ears.
Chris,
I’m guessing there is a rivalry between Boras and Van Wagenen dating back to their days as competing agents.
In the past two years, Gsellman has pitched in 120 games, 143.2 IP with a 4.45 ERA and a 1.329 WHIP. I think it’s curious that anyone in the Mets org thinks he’s a viable SP candidate after putting up those numbers as a reliever.
My guess is you can count the guys who put up an 87 ERA+ in two full years as a reliever who successfully converted to a starter on one hand. And still have fingers left over. Perhaps five left over.
I think the Mets are pretty much going to stand pat. Get Cespedes, Wright and Lowrie off the books after the upcoming season and then start to infuse money (I hope) after the Cohen deal closes.
I would rather have Lugo in the rotation than a lousy over the hill veteran, Vargas II.
John’s article seemed bias towards giving Gsellman the inside shot of being the 5th starter; and I have no problem with that seeing how successful Lugo has been. In defense of Gsellman, others have noted that Callaway didn’t use the bullpen; and Gsellman in particular, as well as he should/could have. I know that pitchers generally like a set routines, and maybe this is especially true with Gsellman. I know you don’t agree Brian, but at least let Beltran work such issues out in ST.
I can’t say I love the idea of changing up a guys routine/mechanics after an amazing season like Lugo had. Worst of all, this type of baseball decision (testing Lugo/RG as a starter) definitely didn’t come with guidance from Beltran or the new pitching coach
John, BVW last year said that he has never had conversation or dealings with Boras. Possibly, the bitterness is left over from a combination of Harvey and the Coupons’ cheapness, thus losing a major market team to use in competition with others. Or, maybe he sees the deals they gave Cespedes, DeGrom, Lowrie and took in Cano and he sees Jeff favoring a rival’s agency…
In dealing with the starters/bullpen in a previous writeup, we discussed how the Yankees lately have put young starters in the rotation and use that $25MM per year on three relievers that will give you 200 or so higher leverage and higher quality innings, over a starter – that may even get hurt. I agree with those that say, ‘load the pen and let both Lugo and Gsellman have a shot in the rotation spot’.
Chris – man did you peg that BVW interview last night…he would have said as much had he not opened his mouth. I agree with Gus in that loaded the pen would have more value than the rotation, but to a degree. They need to add a competent starter, and internally Lugo is the only guy that could fit that profile. So, the way to “load” then pen may be to add to it but keep Lugo and Gsellman there too by getting a competent starter. I also think that while Gsellman has been so so, there is more upside leaving him in the pen. Without referencing stats, he seems to be befelled by a few bad outings…days he just doesn’t have it or is gassed. His stuff should play better, and if the pen is more talented and better managed, perhaps he can become that nasty Gsellman he was as a starter in his first go around.
I am hoping Gsellman or Peterson can impress and win SP # 5 role, leaving Lugo in the BP along with another 2 or 3 arms BVW can get. Something like Betances, Hudson, Giles…no scrubbies.
Mets have plenty of that already in the BP !