Each year with the predictions column I start by going back to the previous year’s piece. The goal is to get more than 50 percent right, while not making boring predictions. Not once in all of the years of doing this have more turned out right than wrong. Out of last year’s batch, only five were right, which was one more correct prediction than the previous season. Just missed getting another one right, as Jason Vargas finished with nine Quality Starts, one shy of my prediction of 10.

But you can’t be afraid to be wrong. No one wants to read a bunch of predictions like “the Mets will have a guy come down with a season-ending injury.” So here are a group of predictions that will range from head tilting to eyebrow-raising to outright aggressive. But these are all things I believe will happen, not ones made simply to be controversial.

It’s more of a challenge than normal to do predictions this year. Or, to be more accurate, it requires the reader to keep in mind that we’re only having 37% of a full season. If a total doesn’t seem to be all that impressive, or difficult to achieve, keep in mind the length of the season.

Dominic Smith will make more starts than J.D. Davis
Steven Matz will lead the team in Wins, with at least 7
Dellin Betances ends the year as the closer
Last year, 85 of Pete Alonso’s 155 hits went for extra bases. This year he finishes with over 50% of his hits as singles.
After posting a 5.52 ERA in 2019, Rick Porcello finishes with a sub-4.00 mark in 2020.
Amed Rosario, who last year had 15 HR and 19 SB, finishes with twice as many steals as homers
Michael Conforto adds 75 points to his 2018-2019 OPS total of .827
Jeurys Familia shaves three full runs off last year’s 5.70 ERA
Jeff McNeil tops David Wright’s franchise record of .963 for top OPS for a third baseman
Brandon Nimmo finishes with a higher SLG than Alonso
David Peterson makes more starts than Seth Lugo
Michael Wacha draws more Comeback Player of the Year support than Yoenis Cespedes
The Mets finish with the best record of any NL East team versus AL East competition
Jacob deGrom gives up 3 HR or fewer
After not hitting in more than seven straight games last year, Robinson Cano posts a double-digit hit streak. He still stinks, though.

*****

Seemingly each year, someone responds that these don’t seem all that unlikely and then the majority of them don’t come true. Maybe in the crazy times of 2020, someone will remark how difficult these are and finally the 50% mark will be topped. A boy can dream.

6 comments on “Predictions for the 2020 Mets

  • David Groveman

    Dominic Smith will make more starts than J.D. Davis – It’s a fair guess but I’m leaning Davis on this split.

    Steven Matz will lead the team in Wins, with at least 7 – I’m a Matz fan so I’m all aboard.

    Dellin Betances ends the year as the closer – With four players capable of finishing the year as closer I think this is a risky bet. If I don’t have to choose Diaz, Familia or Lugo I’ll take the other side of that bet.

    Last year, 85 of Pete Alonso’s 155 hits went for extra bases. This year he finishes with over 50% of his hits as singles. – I think he will see his power numbers go down so I’ll agree.

    After posting a 5.52 ERA in 2019, Rick Porcello finishes with a sub-4.00 mark in 2020. – Your lips to God’s ears.

    Amed Rosario, who last year had 15 HR and 19 SB, finishes with twice as many steals as homers – In a short season that seems a good bet.

    Michael Conforto adds 75 points to his 2018-2019 OPS total of .827 – It’s all about consistency and if Conforto is hot or cold when baseball begins.

    Jeurys Familia shaves three full runs off last year’s 5.70 ERA – I see a big bounce back for him.

    Jeff McNeil tops David Wright’s franchise record of .963 for top OPS for a third baseman – If his power from the tail end of 2019 holds true he would do this easily.

    Brandon Nimmo finishes with a higher SLG than Alonso – I’ll take the other side of this bet.

    David Peterson makes more starts than Seth Lugo – As long as that number is three or less you are probably right.

    Michael Wacha draws more Comeback Player of the Year support than Yoenis Cespedes – Being that I see Cespedes being a total flop… I agree.

    The Mets finish with the best record of any NL East team versus AL East competition – Wishful thinking is always good.

    Jacob deGrom gives up 3 HR or fewer – Very possible.

    After not hitting in more than seven straight games last year, Robinson Cano posts a double-digit hit streak. He still stinks, though. – Lol… I really liked Cano back in the day and it hurts to watch someone who was so good be so bad for my team.

  • Bob P

    Of all of your predictions I really hope the 3 about Porcello, Familia and Wacha pan out. If those prove true it will go a long way towards a successful (mini) season.

    On the Alonso/Nimmo SLG I’m going with Alonso.

    I hope you are wrong on Betances because we will be best off if Diaz can rediscover 2018.

    • Mike W

      I think there are too many what ifs. I think the offense will score a lot of runs.

      Team Record 31-29.

  • Mack

    Okay…

    Now we have to get Peterson on the active roster.

  • Chris F

    Pete Alonso will lead the MLB in HR.

    Jed Lowrie will not complete a single game, and not play 9 innings cumulatively.

    deGrom wins 3rd consecutive CY, and despite a late start to his career, whispers of Cooperstown will start surfacing.

    Aside from deGrom, starting pitching is a disaster, with one of the highest team ERAs.

    Met pitchers will lead the league in yielding HR.

    No clarity will be made in deciding if the Mets have a consistent closer.

    Familia will have an ERA > 3.25 and a WHIP > 1.250

    JD Davis will get more ABs than Dom Smith

    Cano will consistently bat 3rd.

    Despite finishing 3rd in the NLE and narrowly not making the post season, our new skipper will get praise and may or may not be skipper in 2021; by the same token, BVW will not be GM next year, having been released by new ownership.

  • HOF19

    Most of the SNY Network guys are saying …..just now …..that Lugo is not ready right now to start because his arm is not ready to pitch a higher volume of innings at this exact point in time…….So you might just be correct about Peterson getting more starts than Lugo ……Lets Go Mets !!!!!

    Editor’s Note – Please do not capitalize words in your post, as that is a violation of our Comment Policy.

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