Mets prepare for return to action after a Covid break

Most every Mets fan knows that the team won the World Series in 1969 and finished the year with 100 wins during the regular season, the first time in franchise history that the club finished above .500 for the year. A lot of fans know they finished with a great kick, going 40-14 in their final 54 games. But what’s been lost for the most part is how successful the team was that season in doubleheaders. And with the Mets likely to have four doubleheaders this year, it seems like an appropriate time to look at the ’69 club.

The Mets played 22 doubleheaders in 1969. They swept 11, split eight and got swept three times, giving them a 30-14 (.682) record in twinbill games. In their last nine doubleheaders, they went 14-4. It helps when every pitcher you’re throwing in twinbills have an ERA+ of 104 or greater, which is what the Mets typically had with their starting pitcher depth. The ’69 club was putting out a league-average or better pitcher and other clubs needed to use a depth starter who might not even crack an 80 ERA+. That’s a huge advantage.

The 2020 Mets won’t have that same edge. They’re struggling to find five healthy guys to fill a normal rotation and no one knows what they’ll do if they have to play 10 games in seven days. With David Peterson and Michael Wacha likely returning from the IL soon, it might be the best bet for Seth Lugo to get a start this season. Of course, Lugo was on track to start the first game that got canceled. If it wasn’t for bad luck, he’d have no luck at all.

With today’s off day, it will be five days since the Mets last played a game. That’s great for the bullpen, where everyone had been used fairly often. The pen should be ready to go. But what happens with the starters now is anyone’s guess.

Jacob deGrom should be on the hill Tuesday when they return to action, assuming there are no additional Covid setbacks. Since there haven’t been any new cases in five days, we have a right to be cautiously optimistic that trend will continue. The Marlins and Cardinals each had new cases immediately after the initial disclosure, with the Cards ending up sidelined for two weeks.

At the time this is being written, no formal news from MLB about makeup games has been issued. Rumor has it that the Mets will play a twinbill with the Marlins on either Tuesday or Thursday and will play doubleheaders against the Yankees on Friday and Sunday. If the makeup with the Marlins happens on Tuesday, will it be deGrom and Lugo?

With doubleheader games this year being seven innings, it makes using Lugo an easier proposition. If Lugo goes three innings in a normal game, the pen has to give you six frames. It would be very helpful if the lengthening out occurred in a game that required two fewer innings. And there’s also the possibility that deGrom could give a complete game in a doubleheader game. And the shortened length might help both Peterson and especially Wacha as they return from the injured list.

Rick Porcello, who’s already gone seven innings in a start, offers the possibility of a complete game in a doubleheader game or length in a regular game. Because while the bullpen is in good shape now, it’s very easy to see that turning around quickly with the extra games. However the Mets choose to line up their rotation, they need to quit throwing away starts on Robert Gsellman.

Typically, a pitcher’s numbers improve dramatically when they move from a starting role into the pen. Lugo had a 4.71 ERA as a starter in 2017 to a 2.53 ERA as a reliever. To be fair, Lugo’s 2017 numbers were inflated as that was the first time he was pitching with the elbow issues. Still, it’s not unusual for a pitcher’s ERA to drop a run or more with a move to the pen. Gsellman’s numbers dropped about a run, but that was due more to a 5.29 ERA his last year as a starter than anything else. Gsellman was worse than Lugo as a starter and worse than him as a reliever and he had pitched a total of one inning in 365 days. Yet he got the chance to start before Lugo. That was a mistake and it will continue to be a mistake if they give him additional starts, especially with pitchers seemingly ready to return from the IL.

The Mets’ position for the postseason has not changed since they last played. They were one game out of second place after their game on Wednesday and before games are played on Monday they have the same deficit. Actually there situation has improved a little, as before they were shut down, they were half a game behind the Phillies. Now Philadelphia trails New York by that half game.