It seems like just yesterday that there were rumors swirling that the New York Mets wanted to acquire All-Star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. The Mets were on the cusp of their magical 2015 season, and the addition of a player like Tulowitzki would have added verified star power to the lineup. Instead, the Colorado Rockies decided to trade Tulowitzki to the Toronto Blue Jays, which he helped reach the ALCS before the team fell to the eventual World Series Champion Kansas City Royals. The Mets ended up trading for Yoenis Cespedes, and well, we don’t need to re-explore what that would mean for the team.
Now, half a decade later, the Mets and the Rockies have been once again dragged together by trade talks. This time around the block, the conversations have revolved around All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado. According to Jon Morosi on MLB Network, the Rockies would like to have the Mets as a potential trade partner for the seven-time Gold Glover. MLB Pipeline sums it up nicely in this tweet:
The #Rockies would like to engage the #Mets on a Nolan Arenado trade, according to @jonmorosi. What would it take for the Mets to get the 5-time All-Star?
Here's a look at their Top 30 prospects: https://t.co/BPstZCzVKF pic.twitter.com/FZd9gZIoND
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) December 16, 2020
While at this point it is just a rumor, it is always good practice to explore what a trade of that magnitude would mean for the franchise. At face value the Mets would absolutely have to get the Rockies to absorb Robinson Cano’s contract, which will be massive to undertake next season once the 39-year-old will be able to retake the field following his season-long suspension for PEDs. Should the Rockies be willing to take on that contract, they’ll want a haul of prospects, which the Mets aren’t exactly stocked with. The Mets would have to part with an MLB-ready player such as Brandon Nimmo (who holds a ridiculous .706 slugging percentage lifetime at the hitter-friendly Coors Field) as well as a prospect such as Brett Baty.
Even with bringing all of those chips to the table, the Mets would probably still have to sweeten the pot more. But say the Rockies did end up sending Arenado to the Mets. Instantly, the team would receive one of, if not the best, defensive players in the MLB.
I have complete confidence that Arenado’s defense will transfer over to Citi Field, as he has won a Gold Glove in every season he has played so far. The largest concern for many is whether or not his bat will transfer as well. This is a valid concern, as Coors Field can sometimes be a cesspool for inflated batting statistics. There are some important numbers to look at when thinking about Arenado’s offense.
The first statistic that should jump out is the low strikeout numbers that Arenado puts up. Arenado struck out only 20 times last year, four less than the contact guru of the Mets, Jeff McNeil. For the amount of power that Arenado produces, that low number of strikeouts is impressive. The item that concerns people however is Arenado’s numbers at Coors Field against numbers at other parks. Let’s focus on how he has done at Citi Field when he has played there.
At Citi Field, Arenado’s numbers have suffered. He has played 23 games there, and has a slash line of .229/.275/.410. His OPS is a measly .684, which is far below his overall career mark of .890, which is good enough for 73rd all-time. So, why so different? Well, it has to do with the gaps. Below is Arenado’s spray chart at Citi Field since the 2015 season. All three of the home runs were no-doubt shots, with the home run to deep center even bouncing off of the apple. What stands out besides those long home runs is the two doubles Arenado has recorded, both down the left field line. Outside of his home runs, those doubles were the only two extra base hits he has recorded since 2015. It is evident that Arenado does not utilize the gaps at Citi Field.
Now, we’ll look at the last full season he spent at Coors Field, 2019. He uses the left-center gap at a consistent clip, and was rewarded with a high amount of doubles in that area. Of course, Arenado had more at bats at Coors Field. But what I get from this chart is that the climate truly did impact the way the ball carried into the gap for Arenado. He won’t have that benefit if he comes to Citi Field, and he will have to really put a focus into adjusting to life without that Colorado air.
Although the rumors for this trade are in their infancy stage, there isn’t much debate that Arenado would be an impact player for the Mets. As I pointed out above, there would most likely be an adjustment period for the slugger, given the way that he has performed at Citi Field in the past. Regardless, should the Mets find the opportunity to get a hold on him, they should absolutely take a shot. Players like Arenado, who are consistently healthy, impactful, and strike out at a low rate, don’t come around very often. As confident as I am that his defense will carry over, I am just as confident he will be able to produce in the lineup.
Arenado has won a Gold Glove in every season he has played in.
Arenado has the 73rd highest OPS in MLB history.
Arenado has five extra base hits since 2015 at Citi Field.
I’m not trading real talent to help Colorado shed an overpriced salary. Even taking on Cano isn’t enough to warrant reading Nimmo and prospects. We can sign our own FA and keep the roster intact.
Even an overpay on Lemahiue would be far less.
There’s no way the Mets should give up a package like you mention. The Rockies want to get out from Arenado’s salary so they are going to have to take less. Something like Davis, Cano and a lower level prospect might be worth discussing but no way would I give up Nimmo and a top prospect.
Thank you. Who writes this stuff, Jeff Wilpon?
Does Cano have a no-trade clause?
Dalton, this is all great work. However, defense peaks at age 31. Also, why do you want to bail out the Rockies of this huge commitment and give them good players?
I like Arenado for the Mets, quite a bit in fact. But here’s the deal. That’s a lot of $ to assume and the Rox are looking to shed salary. Happy to take Arenado off your hands but for that you get some minor leaguer who is not a prospect. It’s a straight up we get the player, you get out from under the 120M$, simple as that. Anything else and the phone hangs up.
Also, I wish people would give up on trading Cano. He has no trade clause. We get him for free next season with the suspension and the Seattle money goes to the Mets not Cano — so we’re getting that no matter his suspension. Cano is a sunk cost. I bet we never see him in a Mets uniform again.
Chris, I agree with you in Cano being a sunk cost. Regardless of what we are committed to paying him I think the team is better without him. To that end I’d be fine releasing him and eating the salary. If we can throw him into a deal (which he may not agree to) great. If not then I would be asking the Rockies to kick in $40-$50 mill to make a deal happen. I’d be willing to give up Davis and a lower level prospect if they agree. Whether it’s the Rockies taking on Cano or giving the Mets money to offset, we come out in the same position which is swapping out Davis for Arenado at 3rd and getting some partial salary relief on his contract.
+1
Exactly. Play it tough.
Chris, Arenado is due $33/year for six more years. There’s $199MM left on his deal.
They throw in the prospect for the Mets to take that. Otherwise, try the Dodgers. The Mets don’t need salary relief, they need prospect relief.
Great call Gus. Look, I don’t mind checking in some afterthought so it looks like more than a salaried move, but we get Arenado *and* a prospect.
Dalton,
Nice summary but I do agree with most of the comments that your return to the Rockies is too much.
Per your bio you are a younger generation Met fan. I go back to before the 1973 World Series team, but even with that length of fandom we are in unchartered waters. The Mets are in a position of strength now given their willing owner, and even though the team has multiple needs, it actully has more options than needs. If they can’t get a trade at their price, fine. Arenado, Lindor, whatever. Yes, they punted on Realmuto, but that not only gives them more options for 2021, it gives them more options for 2022. The SS market will be flooded, and signing a star free agent SS will only cost a supplemental pick. Let’s see what the Rockies or Indians can get for these guys, but the Mets can’t afford to overpay in prospects or salary commitments. I would love Arenado at 3b or Lindor at SS, but at my price. I’d love Darvish or Snell in the rotation, but at my price. I’d love Bauer in my rotation, but if the Angels are going to throw $250 million at him, fine, see ya.
Arenado is a very good player but the Mets shouldn’t trade for him. There are other options and his salary could be spread around to fill other needs. His $35M salary could be used for Odorizzi $13m,Tanaka $13m and Hand $9m instead.(MBLTR projections). The Mets have $52m to spend before they reach the luxury tax. Drop Hand from the equation and insert $25m for Springer. The Mets shouldn’t take on another $30+m salary with so many needs to address unless they want to pay the luxury tax.
Yes, pay the luxury tax. Even if they go $30 million over the threshold, it’s only a $6 million penalty (about Steven Matz’s salary or what Steve Cohen paid for a minor work for his art collection).
My fear is that in 2022 and 2023 (at this point), Cano’s salary kicks back in. I don’t want to be in a financial box in 2021 and beyond that it becomes a problem to fill a hole that might crop up due to injury or lack of performance.
I think Arenado’s salary – for a position that is not in the top 4 of need at the moment – would be prohibitive in building a sensible sustainable strategy.
I see your point, 1969.
My major worry is putting Davis at 3B a lot in 2021. Perhaps Rosario or Guillorme can play there much of the time. Or sign Turner for two years, if he’d come back and we outbid the Dodgers for his services.
Can Arenado pitch? Can he play centerfield? Could he come out of the bullpen on successive days and get some big late-inning outs? These are the boxes the Mets need checked next.