If you’re still willingly reading about the Mets and watching the games given how the season has unfolded, I commend you. Your fandom knows no bounds, but you may want to step back and think about the decision-making process that compels you to tune in to this horror show. Of course, you might want to take that advice with a grain of salt. After all, it’s coming from someone that penned a preseason article stating that the 2021 offense could be elite. Yikes.
As the team continues its staggering free fall, you’re surely tired of hearing about its terrible offensive performance. Hey, I’m tired of hearing about, though not as tired as actually seeing it. That doesn’t change the reality of the situation, though. Not only has this roster’s unimaginable regression doomed the 2021 season, it seriously calls into question the state of the organization moving forward. This season’s failures are about more than simply bad results. The offensive impotence feels more or less like the crescendo of a flawed organizational philosophy that’s included the unjustified ousting of both players and coaches over the decade that Sandy Alderson has been at the helm.
Power and patience; patience and power. The apparent mantra of the Mets’ organizational hitting philosophy under Alderson for the last ten years is to “wait for a good pitch to hit.” This is obviously sound in theory, but it’s seemingly morphed into the perverse version fans have been subjected to game in and game out in 2021. Hitters up and down the lineup are consistently being beat by predictable pitch patterns while leaving the bat on their shoulders when they do see those good pitches. They’re in the top ten in the league in soft contact and in the bottom ten in hard contact. They’re in the bottom half of baseball in BB% and third-worst in ISO. They swing a lot (48.9% Swing%). They miss a lot (11.9% SwStr%). They strike out a lot (23.8% K%). So much for power and patience, huh?
While perusing the infinite sadness that makes up the Mets’ Statcast hitting numbers and making myself melancholy, I came across an interesting data point. The Mets are dead last in number of pitches seen at 17,300. That’s almost 500 fewer than the next team (Cleveland) and nearly 2,300 fewer than the team that has seen the most (the Dodgers). That is truly incredible, especially considering that they’re next-to-last in number of batted balls. This is a clear indication of a team, as a whole, not working counts and simply being beat in every way conceivable at the plate. It also paints a picture of a lineup afraid to continue to fail, jumping at anything that seems remotely close and digging themselves further into a hole. It plainly speaks to a team without a semblance of a plan when they step in the box. The worst part about it is the constant talk of trusting the process. These aren’t just bad results. There is an utter futility in their approach, and even a marked resignation of the inevitable that can be seen in the body language of the team. It’s a total systemic failure and an indictment of the organization from top to bottom.
Is it possible that this is just an anomaly? Could this be something so out of the ordinary that we should chalk it up to essentially the entire team having bad years all at the same time? Sure, the team can pin it all on some really bad luck, simply tweak the roster fringes, and hope for the best next year. Does that sound like a good plan to you, though?
I’d been a staunch Alderson supporter for most of his time with the Mets. I found his big league roster moves (for the most part) rational and in line with the constraints under which he was burdened. He made some big time trades that brought a lot of present and future talent to the ball club. Notably, the team continued their tradition of being great at developing pitching talent under his watch as well. But it’s become clear that the Alderson regime’s organizational philosophy for hitting is just not compatible with today’s game.
Think about this: the Mets teams with the most recent success were the 2015 team that went to the World Series and the one in 2016 that made it to the Wild Card game. Those rosters were almost entirely made up of players that Alderson either inherited or brought in from other organizations via signings and trades. The offensive core of this year’s team is mostly made up of young players that came up through Alderson’s system, minus the handful of mercenaries.
Now, you might be saying to yourself that this season’s offensive core is basically the same as it was in 2020 and 2019, when they performed markedly better. You would be correct. What was the major difference between those seasons and 2021? Well, notably, those teams were run (albeit poorly) by Brodie Van Wagenen and his staff. Specifically, those rosters were under the tutelage of hitting coach Chili Davis with a young core poised to continue their break out trajectory.
The team’s slow start led to Davis’ firing early in the 2021 season, reportedly originating with Alderson. In his place yes-man Hugh Quattlebaum has been urging fans to trust the process, and it’s no coincidence that Quattlebaum was the team’s minor league director of hitting development. It all reeks of a front office meddling more than it should in the day-to-day machinations and tactical strategy of the ball club.
That wouldn’t be the first time Alderson’s Mets would cut ties with someone that didn’t adhere to their hitting philosophy only to have it come back and bite them. I’m sure I don’t need to remind you of one Justin Turner. Nor do I need to bring up Alderson’s decision to let Daniel Murphy go just as he was entering the prime of his hitting career. Both of those players received MVP votes after leaving the Mets, by the way.
The Mets’ hitters, and their entire hitting philosophy, are broken. What else can you do but tear it all down? The rub here is that it likely doesn’t require a roster tear down. This young core has already shown that it can perform well under the right conditions. At this point, with this coaching staff and this front office’s organizational hitting philosophy, those conditions are no longer in place. Truth be told, moving most of the current roster would be sell-low moves that would do little to achieve a full-blown reset anyway.
When heads roll during an organizational purge that cleans out coaching staffs and front offices, it’s usually effectively a symbolic move since you can’t fire your entire terrible roster. In this case, I truly believe that this team needs a complete revamp in their entire approach to developing hitters and working with their big league lineup. That requires a house cleaning that would be much more than symbolic.
In the end, you certainly can’t run this thing back next year, can you? It’s your move, Mr. Cohen. We’re all anxious to see what you’re going to do to clean this mess up.
Thank you for stepping up and being bold, Rob. Although you and I might deem it obvious, I’m sure there are more patient fans who think a player or two here and there would turn this around. Nope.
I’ve always envied the many teams who get more out of their players. Players seem to sag when they get to Queens. And it’s not just the big things, which Pete Alonso showed are possible in his rooking year… wow. To me, it’s all the little things. Jeff McNeil not covering second base on a close throw from the outfield, playing back and not throwing home on a crucial late-inning ground ball, rarely going first to third, back when the Mets actually got base hits… the list is very very long.
The Mets need a complete change in culture, in attitude, and in personnel. Keep Pete, build around Lindor, with whom we are stuck, in the infield, build around Nimmo in the outfield, keep the pitchers, keep Hefner (great job), dump Rojas, McNeil, Conforto, Smith, Davis… get speed, speed, and more speed… replace Conforto with the best version of Conforto (lefty power bat), go younger (please no more fat, slow veterans). Let’s play exciting baseball with a team that hustles, a manager who knows how to win games instinctively, and pitching that comes every night.
Please, Mr. Cohen.
Thanks! Also, so much this: “I’ve always envied the many teams who get more out of their players.”
There’s something fundamentally wrong with this team, and all signs seem to point in one direction.
The front office should be replaced and hire a manager and staff. Aggressively pursuit free agents for 2B, RF and LF ( or CF and put Nimmo in LF) but not free agents that have a qualifying offer because the farm system shouldn’t be further hurt. McNeil and Smith should be demoted to the bench. The Mets don’t need to trade them because they are controlled until 2025. If they can get value then they should move them. Stroman should be signed and Syndergaard offered a QO. Money can solve this problem and for once the Mets have it.
Have to agree except I feel 3B is more of an upgrade need than 2B, and professional hitter like Corey Seager fits like a glove. I could live with McNeil or Smith in LF. Too, I wouldn’t touch the farm, but that’s what they said before they dealt for Lindor, and then they said no more trades from the farm before they dealt PCA.
Honestly, it should go even deeper. Along with the front office, there should be complete overhaul of the team’s minor league instructional infrastructure (if not staff, then certainly processes, methods, etc.). That’s a long haul issue, but one worth getting started sooner rather than later.
Rob,
Nice write up, thought provoking with some good data points. While I am not necessarily a proponent of the “Alderson philosophy”, if in fact that actually exists, I’m not sure I’m not sure that I agree with conclusion that this season’s epic offensive failure is due to some long running organizational dysfunction that needs to be replaced. You actually present data that suggests that the hitters themselves are failing, and in a pattern that is contrary to the tenant of “waiting for a good pitch to hit”.
For years, we Met fans lamented over the Wilpons lagging behind baseball, with other organizations loading up on analysts and performance reviewers. Now we have a new wealthy owner, one who has empowered Alderson to expand administrative resources, import younger talent, and model after the big boys. This has actually occurred, despite the dreadful offense in game. How much this has impacted this group of players negatively, that is hard to tell. But, the bottom line is that the offense sucks this year because many of the regulars have sucked at the plate. We can identify them – Conforto, Lindor, Smith and McNeil primarily, McCann to a lesser extent. It is not fair or accurate to blame the suits and the hitting coach for their failure. Maybe a minority portion of blame goes to a “system”, but I have watch quite a bit of the games, and each of these guys have had plenty of opportunities, many times in hitter counts, to barrel it up. The overwhelming lack of hard contact is the fault of the dude swinging the bat, it really isn’t any more complicated than that. And MLB knows this…other commentators, opposing game planners, as stated above, are easily retiring Mets on classic pitch sequencing.
So the question is what to do about it. I am more in line with Metsense in that they do need to change the mix to some degree with some imported hitting talent, but a “tear down” would not make sense. Even if they bring in a Theo Epstein, I see more evolution than revolution player-wise.
Most all of these underperforming guys have shown success in the bigs. Will they all recapture that? Likely not. So, keep the controllable lower-cost guys, use some as trade capital if they are not grossly undervalued do to 2021, or have them battle back next year to earn playing time. Lindor and McCann will be here given the financial commitments. From the remainder, they need to make the right choices on who stays and who goes, and who replaces. Turner and Murphy stung not only because they had great post Met success, but because they left with nothing in return. If they part with a McNeil or Smith, the replacement needs to provide the Mets with quality performance.
Hi, TJ. Thank you for the thoughtful response.
I think the theory is sound. What I’m arguing here is that the Alderson regime (and its coaches, instructors, etc.) have utterly failed in their implementation of it and their ability to develop players on the proper execution of it. The Mets 100% needed to modernize across the board, as you say. They’ve taken steps to do so, thankfully, but that doesn’t mean that they’ve done so successfully. Additionally, it’s become clear that an old hand like Alderson isn’t the right choice for that kind of modernization.
The alternative is that each of these players (Conforto, Smith, McNeil, etc.) have followed up successive years of constant improvement with a season where each of them inexplicably falls off a cliff at the same exact time in the same exact way. Possible? Sure. Likely? That’s obviously up to each us to determine whether or not we believe it.
Rob or Brian, or one of you subscribers who is good at statistics, could one of you tell us what percentage of Mets homeruns have been solo shots? Then tell us how this compares to other major league clubs this year? It seems to me that there is rarely someone on base, except for Nimmo. I’m wondering if the Mets lag far behind in this category too, thereby negating their power.
Hi, James! I think you should be able to get an idea of this using Baseball Savant. Check this out:
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=home%5C.%5C.run%7C&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2021%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=4%7C&home_road=&hfFlag=&hfBBT=&metric_1=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=team&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0&chk_stats_hrs=on#results
Sort that by HR, and you can see that Mets are middle of the pack for HR with runners on. Change the “Runners On” option to “No Runners,” sort by HR again, and you can see that the Mets are actually near the bottom of the league for HRs without runners on base. Kind of interesting.
What a brutally honest assessment of our team. I really believe they need to purge a lot of players including Conforto, McNeill and Smith. In Citi field I like ths idea of pitching and speed. I do believe that Cohen will make some big changes. I just hope it is enough.
All true. And if you keep digging along the path you are on, not only is less pitches, they score in much fewer innings too. Everything about the hitting philosophy is bankrupt. Go back to 2015 ans you will see the team was 52-50 on July 30th – the pennant run was basically 2 months of success, not a full season domination.
Fire.
Sandy.
Alderson.
I cant tell you all how many times Ive written this in August alone.
You sure you want to do that?
I’d fire Alderson today just to make clear this BS is not gonna be tolerated.
He’s a relic from baseball 3 generations ago. His ideas stink. His baseball philosophy stinks. He’s been a failure during his long tenure in Queens. We will all remember 2015, but it was an August and September thing, not like the Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, Giants etc. he built nothing repeatable or sustainable.
Alderson, like most everyone, has his pros and cons. We can debate those endlessly, especially on the philosophical side. His record does speak for itself, and you are absolutely correct in that we have had three months of bliss in late 2015, until losing to the Royals, and a so so 2016 with one extra game. How much he was constrained by the Wilpons is also debatable. For 2021, the team assembled was considered by most a favorite for the NL East, so as I’ve said many times on this site, player performance is mostly on the player. In no way was this team every in a position this season to be elite, and anyone with those expectations was likely not objective.
Going forward, and reviewing Alderson’s role, I suspect that regardless of 2021, he would not be driving the baseball operations long. Cohen needed his presence to get purchase approval, and his skill running a MLB operation. Even Alderson himself, without providing a timeline, suggested that it would be a short run given his age. The initial plan didn’t work, bringing in a “top talent” to step into the Pres of Baseball Ops role, so Uncle Stevie will get another shot. Alderson will likely slide into a business role, assuming they don’t fail again in luring someone to Flushing to run the baseball ops. In any event I expect more evolution than revolution, although I doubt Rojas will survive a new sheriff unless this collapse is followed by an historic September run.
I would really like to know how the Baez deal went down. What a waste of a good prospect. You dont build a contender by making impulsive moves like that.
Supposedly, Alderson has always liked Baez. And, Cohen and Lindor seem to have a special relationship, so it could be the latter influenced the former to trade for his buddy.
But, even it all that is true, there was no excuse for giving up Crow-Armstrong for a two-month rental.
Until towards the end of Alderson’s first stint with the team, I was completely on board with how he handled business with the cruddy Wilpon-era cards he was dealt. He seemingly worked magic at times.
At the end of the day, though, he’s had a decade to build a sustainable winner. Not only has he not done that, he’s ridden back into town and actually made a team on the upswing worse somehow.
We can’t forget the good that Alderson has done. But, “You either die a hero, or live long enough to see yourself become the villain.” Or something along those lines.
Rob,
One other point – the Mets have had only 21 starts from their top two starters. At this stage of the season, that equates to about 30 missed starts. Both guys were healthy last year and pitched to their #1 and #2 levels. Even with this dreadful offense, if they got 20 of those starts, it is very likely they’d be in the mix or in first, and it would be doubtful any of us would be calling for a tear down.
Your post made the most sense. The others seemed like losing induced hysteria. Also, typing into this phone is annoying so if the rest of you feel insulted and want to retaliate, don’t expect any response
T.J., we would almost certainly still be writing about how absolutely awful the offense is, what the heck happened to it, and what it means for the future. I’ve been writing about it most of the season.
But yes, I won’t deny that the response (including articles like this one) would likely be less severe, at least with more than a month left in the season.
Let’s make sure to dump the training staff. Too many injuries like hammies and obliques that go directly back at poor training of the players. Was not a big fan of Hefner but he’s done a great job. Agree now is the time for a changeover getting an everyday CF and 3B both of whom can hit and field – what a novel approach. Tired of settling for poor fielders because we need their bats. Bring in a strong hitting coach too, someone who can teach the kids. Mr. Cohen, please keep making progress year two of your plan. We are counting you.
Rob, bravo on a great piece. Love the nod to Smashing Pumpkins too. Metsense, TJ and others, some great comments. This is what makes Mets360 great.
This has been one of the most mystifying and frustrating seasons in which I’ve followed the Mets. I too made the pre-season prediction that this would be one of the best offenses we’ve ever had. McNeil, Smith and Conforto all seemed poised for All-Star years and Lindor was a perennial All-Star. That all four have performed well below expectations is just dumbfounding. Add that to all the injuries an it’s kind of a wonder we stayed competitive as long as we did. It’s not just that most of the lineup is hitting .240 with little power, but that hits with RiSP are so frustratingly rare. The Yankees can get away without having speed and high-average bats because they have all those monsters in their lineup. The Mets have just one at the moment in Alonso and that only works if you’re built like the 80s Cardinals, which this team is not.
I won’t pretend to know the answer. But there is something organizationally or fundamentally wrong with this franchise that was not simply fixed with new ownership. Too many players leave Queens and thrive and too many get here and flounder. Perhaps all these new data guys can get to the bottom of it.
Yes! Glad someone spotted the Smashing Pumpkins reference :).
It really is just baffling at this point. To rub salt in the wound, the Athletic has an interesting article about the Giants success and how it ties back to their “unconventional, young coaches.” Seems to be a budding trend in the game, and the sort of thing that would be great for a “new looks Mets” team to be involved in. That is, innovating at the speed of the game rather than seemingly like the game has left them behind.