Early in the 2021 season, Mets fans asked what the team would look like if guys were just playing as well as the back of their baseball card indicated they would. A year later, the Mets lead the National League with a 5.04 runs per game and their 45-24 record is the best in the NL. They’ve done this while dealing with multiple injuries to the starting rotation. So, are the hitters living up to their baseball card this year or are they surpassing expectations?
Before we get to this year’s club, let’s look at last year’s squad, using the end of May as our reference point. Here are their OPS numbers:
Brandon Nimmo – .948
Francisco Lindor – .589
Pete Alonso – .786
Michael Conforto – .681
J.D. Davis – 1.109
Jeff McNeil – .709
Dominic Smith – .652
James McCann – .588
Six of the eight regulars were underperforming expectations, with the majority of those being 100 points or more of OPS beneath their career averages coming into the season. And Davis and Nimmo, the two exceptions, were both on the IL at the end of May, with Davis having played only 15 games and Nimmo only two games in May.
And the crazy thing is that the guys who were underperforming in 2021 were all in their 20s, when they should have been playing the best ball of their careers.
Now let’s check in on the current squad. We’ll look at what they’ve done so far this year, what they did in the 2019-21 period and what their lifetime marks coming into the season are. And we’ll use OPS+ because it’s available and will give us an even playing field when looking at people who played on a team besides the Mets.
| 2022 | 2019-21 | Lifetime | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor | 110 | 109 | 115 |
| Pete Alonso | 154 | 137 | 137 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 93 | 104 | 99 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 123 | 129 | 130 |
| Starling Marte | 120 | 122 | 116 |
| Jeff McNeil | 143 | 121 | 124 |
| Mark Canha | 125 | 127 | 114 |
| J.D. Davis | 104 | 128 | 117 |
| Luis Guillorme | 133 | 101 | 91 |
| Tomas Nido | 48 | 61 | 54 |
This year we have four players – Lindor, Nimmo, Marte and Canha – playing within six points of OPS+ from what they’ve posted the past three years. Additionally, two more – Escobar and Nido – are within six points of their lifetime OPS+ coming into the season. Alonso, McNeil and Guillorme are out-performing expectations, while Davis hasn’t hit as well as he has in the past.
Six of the top 10 hitters in PA on the 2021 Mets are performing more or less like you’d expect. And they’re the top team in the league in runs scored because Alonso and McNeil are performing better than expected. This squad is older than the 2021 version with the signing of three free agents for their age-33 season. But it still features a bunch of guys in their 20s who it wouldn’t be a surprise if they put up the best season of their career. Ultimately though, the question now is: Can it last?
Their current rpg pace would have them finish with 816 runs. If forced to make a wager, you’d take the under on that number. But there are reasons to expect the final runs scored number to be very close to the 816 one quoted above. Lindor and Nimmo were both hitting better before recent injury-influenced slumps. Marte had a poor April and has been much more productive since. Escobar just snapped an 0-23 streak. Canha has shown more power after hitting nothing but singles early in the season.
Will that be enough to counter expected drops in production from Alonso and McNeil?
And of course, we’ve been mostly ignoring pitching. It’s really nice to lead the league in runs scored. But the most important thing is to finish first or second in wins among the division leaders and get a bye in the playoffs. The Mets can drop off in runs and still get the bye if Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer pitch to the back of their baseball cards once they’re activated from the IL. That’s a wonderful thought to consider.
It’s been a really fun ride so far, seeing the Mets win in so many different ways. And while I hope to never share Gary Cohen’s giddiness over sacrifice flies, it’s a pleasure to watch hits to all fields, a 29-HR month in May and a team that seems to take advantage every time the opponent makes a defensive mistake.
Last year, the Mets seemed like Eeyore, walking around with their very own rain cloud, wondering why bad things kept happening. This season, the sun is shining and the Mets are like Tigger, bouncing around everywhere and making the Piglets of the world cower in fear.
When you have good players, it’s fun to play to the back of your baseball card.
It should regress, but not that much.
In the past, McNeil has put up 143 OPS+ in 2019 and 138 OPS+ in 2018 so he is performing like in the past. Alonso, in his rookie year, put up a 147 OPS+. Guillorme is playing over his head with .378 BABIP to support his 331 BA. All three “over achievers” appear to bat well against the shift. If JD and Dom Smith improve then they can make up the difference. The Mets are a well-constructed offensive deadline team and minor tweaks before the deadline is all that is needed, if that.