Coming into the 2012 season, I believed the Mets offense was going to be good and the fate of the team rested with how well the pitchers would perform. After 14 games, the Mets are 8-6 yet the offense is 13th in the 16-team National League in runs scored. Obviously the pitching has been better than expected but what has happened to the offense?

While the raw ranking in runs seems really low, the Mets are six runs away from being tied for sixth, which is about where I would expect them to be. Still, six runs in 14 games is not an insignificant total. The Mets are fifth in the league with a .730 OPS and third with a .332 OBP so it’s clear that the team is not so much struggling with the bat as they are having difficulty getting runners home.

When we weren’t looking, the Mets developed into a TTO offense. TTO stands for “Three True Outcomes,” which are walks, homers and strikeouts. The Mets are tied for sixth in HR, tied for fifth in walks and are seventh in strikeouts. It’s quite a departure from last year, when the Mets were below average in homers and strikeouts.

Last year from May 16th to July 21st, when Ike Davis and David Wright (and at various times others) were on the disabled list, most expected the Mets to fall apart. Yet they went 30-28 in that stretch despite hitting just 27 HR in those 58 games. Their offense was predicated on getting runners on base and keeping rallies alive by not striking out. In that 58-game stretch, the Mets had a 15.6 K% as a team.

Flash forward to 2012 and the Mets have a 21.9 K% as a team, despite David Wright’s return to form in the category. Here are the numbers for the Mets’ regulars:

30.2 – Bay
29.3 – Davis
27.3 – Duda
26.7 – Nieuwenhuis
16.1 – Tejada
14.3 – Wright
11.4 – Thole
9.5 – Murphy

What kind of odds in Vegas could we have gotten about the Mets having five guys in their order with a higher K% than Wright? Instead of looking to break batters up by which side of the plate they bat from, perhaps Terry Collins should seek a batting order that breaks up the high strikeout guys. Most nights the lineup goes Davis-Bay-Duda, meaning that the three guys who strike out the most bat consecutively in the 4-5-6 spots.

Of course, it is easy to demonize strikeouts and no one would be paying much attention to these numbers if the Mets scored more runs. They could perform better with RISP – and of course with the bases loaded. Or they could have some better fortune with the timing of their home runs.

As mentioned earlier, the Mets are tied for sixth with 14 HR. Yet the Mets have scored just 20 runs with those 14 homers. Here is their breakdown:

Solo shots – 9
2-run HR – 4
3-run HR – 1
Grand Slam – 0

Earl Weaver preached pitching, defense and the 3-run homer. But that big blast has been hard to come by for the Mets this year. Instead, 64 percent of their homers have been solo shots, compared to a 55 percent league average.

Even with this plethora of solo shots, we see how much the Mets depend on the HR for their offense. They have scored 53 runs overall this year, 20 of those coming via the long ball or 38 percent of their total. Compare that to their 58-game streak last year without Davis and Wright. The Mets scored 257 runs in that stretch with 27 HR. For the sake of simple math, let’s say the Mets averaged two runs scored on each HR (this year the number is 1.43). That would come out to 57 runs scored via HR, or 21 percent of the offense.

What does all of this mean going forward?

It’s realistic to expect Davis, Bay and Duda to cut back on their whiffs, as no member of the trio has a lifetime K% anywhere close to their current rates. It’s also not unreasonable to expect the Mets to move towards the NL average of .64 runs scored per PA with the bases loaded from their current .33 rate. Throw in a few more homers with runners on base and it’s easy to see the Mets offense performing significantly better than it has to date.

Then the team will just need to continue to receive strong pitching from Pelfrey and Gee to be a factor in the race.

2 comments on “Despite Davis and Duda’s struggles, Mets’ offense will be fine

  • Bobby Townsend

    The Mets have given up 9 HRs all season to date (only 4 at Citi Field) I think it was OK to move the fence in on the left side, but I don’t think it will think it will make that big of a difference.

    I like them moving Niewenhuis to the leadoff spot but when Wright was not in the lineup for a few days, that wasn’t a very strong lineup at all.

    Other than Dickey getting hammered in Atlanta in his last start, the starting pitchers have been giving them one quality start after another. Santana was ineffective in his last start but he will be OK since he still looks a little rusty.

    But if you look around the National League, the lineups for most teams is not that impressive. Last years 1-2 hitters in the league, Jose Reyes is hitting about .230 and Braun has struggled recently and undoubtedly, will now be pitched around alot.

    Arguable the two best hitters in the league in Pujols and Fielder, are in the AL now and Howard and Utley are still missing from the Phillies lineup.

    Kemp and Ethier really stand out in that Dodgers lineup and it wouldn’t surprise me if Kemp contends for the triple crown. He is that good and he keeps getting better.

    So yes I think even with the new fence at Citi Field, it is still a pitcher friendly park which I don’t mind seeing but the old dimensions to left field were rediculous

  • Metsense

    Bay and Davis are equally horrible this year with no difference in their splits. Davis probably needs some time off in spots just so he stops spiraling downward. Bay is same old same old only with a little more pop. If Bay doesn’t right his ship, and get it out of the dock of the bay, Torres seems like a likely platoon. Duda is another story as his splits indicate he is having a hellacious time with lefties. A few benchings against lefties, giving Hairston the start, might get his average up and then work him back into the full time role. When Davis and Duda finally come on, watch out!Brian great analysis concerning the k’s.

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