After a brutal outing in his last appearance before the All-Star break, Jonathon Niese rebounded with, according to Game Score, his best outing of the year. Niese allowed just one run and three hits in seven innings and he fanned eight batters for a Game Score of 75, the 10th-best mark for the Mets this season. It was the top Game Score for the team since Johan Santana posted a 77 against the Dodgers on the last day of June.
The only run allowed by Niese came on a solo homer. It was the 11th game this season (in 18 appearances) where Niese served up a gopher ball. He finished with a no-decision in the game. Niese is 7-0 on the season when he allows a solo HR or does not give up any balls over the wall. Six times this year he has surrendered home runs with runners on base and the team is 0-6 in those outings, with Niese taking the loss four times.
Overall, Niese has a 3.58 ERA, after posting a 4.20 and 4.40 marks the past two seasons. In his career prior to 2012, Niese had a 4.39 ERA in 370.2 IP in the majors. Niese has suffered late-season fades both of the past two years so we will have to see how he finishes here in 2012. But one encouraging sign is that his ERA (3.58) is right in line with his xFIP (3.41). While his HR rate is elevated (17.4 HR/FB), Niese has enjoyed a below-average BABIP (.267). The end result is essentially average “luck” and an ERA right where the estimators think it should be.
JV AND THE PH HR – Jordany Valdespin is 3-for-20 as a pinch-hitter this season, with all three hits going for home runs. Justin Maxwell is the only other player with three PH HR this year. It was Valdespin’s second pinch-hit go-ahead homer in the ninth inning or later this season. He’s the sixth player in the last 10 years with two such home runs in one season. Here’s the list of players to accomplish the feat:
2012 Valdespin
2010 Jason Giambi
2006 Javier Valentin
2004 Robin Ventura
2003 J.D. Drew
2003 Adam Dunn
TEAJADA IS EVEN-STEVEN – Forget Jerry Seinfeld, Ruben Tejada is the real even-Steven so far for the Mets. Prior to going on the disabled list, Tejada had a .762 OPS in 117 PA. Since returning from the DL, Tejada has a .760 OPS in 93 PA. That’s impressive consistency. Tejada had a greater ISO before going on the DL but has a higher AVG since returning. Another thing that has improved is his K%. Before going on the DL, Tejada struck out 24 times in 117 PA for a 20.5 K%. But since his return, his strikeout rate has dropped to 12.9 percent (12-93).
TORRES EARNS MORE TIME – When the Mets acquired Andres Torres, they wanted a defensive upgrade in CF and they hoped his bat would return to 2010 levels. Unfortunately, he has hit more like he did last year. However, in his last 10 games, Torres has been on a hot streak. He has a .333/.385/.389 line, which raised his OPS 27 points to .657 for the year. Torres has also scored seven runs in this stretch. At one point a candidate to be released, it seems unlikely now that Torres will be cut before the end of the season, especially with the recent struggles of Kirk Nieuwenhuis.
BYRDAK BLOWS UP – July has not been kind to Tim Byrdak. In seven appearances this month, Byrdak has an 11.25 ERA. Earlier this year, Terry Collins had a stretch of 12 games where he used Byrdak to face just one batter. Fearful he was going to blow out Byrdak and the rest of the bullpen if he kept up that pace, Collins has used him in a more typical role since then. But the results have been poor. In his last 21 appearances, Byrdak has a 5.84 ERA. And this is despite not allowing a HR in that stretch, as well as notching a .258 BABIP. The culprit has been walks, as Byrdak has given up 14 BB in 12.1 IP (21 games!), which has led to a 1.784 WHIP.
THE RETURN OF BAY – Jason Bay has played three games since being activated from the disabled list and has two hits in 11 at-bats. Remarkably, he’s raised his AVG and SLG with that performance. As we grasp for straws looking for signs of improvement, we can also see that Bay is making better contact in this brief sample. Since returning, Bay has whiffed two times in 12 PA. That’s a noticeable improvement from his 27.7 K% previously in 2012.
THE WONDERFUL WRIGHT – With his 2-HR game on Thursday, David Wright now has a 1.029 OPS for the season. His career-high is the .963 mark he posted in 2007. If Wright is able to maintain his current pace, he would become the Mets’ single-season leader in OPS. Mike Piazza holds the current mark with a 1.024 OPS in 1998. Piazza also finished with a 1.012 mark in 2000 and those are the only two seasons in club history where a player finished with a quadruple-digit OPS.
Valdespin reminds me more and more of a left-handed Alfonso Soriano. I think in the outfield, with his tools, he could be an impact player.
Nieuwenhuis has hit a major skid and deserves to lose playing time. At the same time he needs to be given the opportunity to break out of this slump caused by MLB pitchers figuring him out. That said, Torres is on a up-swing and I hope the Mets are forced to play him every day. We should have more players force our hands like that.
If the Mets fall from contention, Byrdak is the first casualty of trades. As it stands they need to probably give him a couple easier outings to rebuild his confidence.
I refuse to have optimistic thoughts about certain Canadian outfielders.
Wright has been the Met’s MVP all season and has really not hit his typical slumps. I’m very happy but realize that Wright’s price tag went up a lot this season.
Reuben Tejada has been one of the real pleasures of this season, right up there with Wright and Dickey. His defense is as good as Mets fans hoped it would be, but his hitting has been remarkable – so much so that I keep waiting for him to cool off. But so far there is no sign of Reuben faltering at the plate. At what point do we believe that he’s a legitimate .300 hitter?
Tejada has a .389 BABIP this season. If he had enough PA to qualify, that would rank tied for sixth with Carlos Gonzalez in the majors. Because he hits so many line drives and ground balls, I do think Tejada will be a player who consistently posts high BABIPs. But it’s not realistic to expect him to be above .350 on a regular basis. David Wright is another guy who consistently posts high BABIPs and he’s only been above .350 three times (including this season) in his nine years in the majors.
Tejada’s AVG is at .319 right now and I’d say it’s 50/50 at this point if he’ll finish the year with a .300 or better AVG. But I would be surpised if it fell below .290 and shocked if it fell below .280 at the end of the year. Of the six projection systems at FanGraphs, only one had Tejada over .280 coming into the season and that one predicted a .285 AVG for him. So, he clearly has exceeded expectations.
One of those six projection systems was an aggregate of what “Fans” predicted for him. FG allows registered users to submit preseason projections for as many players as they wish. There were 28 fans who submitted a projection for Tejada and the average of those 28 saw a .272/.348/.334 line for him in 2012. Right now he has a .319/.368/.393 line, so he has exceeded the “wisdom of the crowd” by 79 points of OPS.
Oh I’m there. I think we can see him at .300 for a long time. And he’s a clutch hitter. He’s been great with the glove. I think he can be our SS for many year. Any one who thinks he’s some temp infill for Reyes is crazy. This kids ceiling is higher than what most give IMO. I think he’s headed to be the best Ss in the NL.
That in the hole jeteresque jump throw the other day when Niese lipped “are you for real” was the convincer that we didn’t just have a good SS but a future great SS. (and did I mention he is only 22 yoa)
I know this article came out before it happened, but i am sad the Q-man is gone. I really liked him in his limited time here. Thank you Quint.
Niese is finally performing close to his xFIP number, which is what Mets have been waiting for 2 years now.
Valdespin has a flair for the dramatic, with 3 pinch hit home runs and if i’m not mistaken ALL in the 9th inning, that’s clutch. Unfortunetly, i think we are only 1-2 in those games.
Brydak is the product of overmanaging by Terry Collins. He is becoming so obsessed with getting matchups he is not letting them pitch. They are afraid if they don’t get their man they will get pulled. He needs to fix this habit and just let them pitch(except for Batista, never use him for short relief).
Me too. It’s a tragedy to lose Q for Bay’s roster spot.
Good luck Q in Baltimore.
Byrdak needs to be micro-managed because if he faced a normal amount of RHB he would be useless. I fear that because Collins had so much success handling Byrdak in this manner that he’s now trying this with every other reliever on the staff, too. And the results have not been good. Let pitchers come on at the beginning of an inning with no one on base and let them pitch a full frame.
Yea, that’s the point i was getting at Brian.
One of the worst offenses was yesterday, Collins brought in Ramirez, and only let him pitch to 1 batter… in a 5 run game.
Or the night before that when Ramirez faces and gets two batters and then gets the hook. The match-up relief pitching isn’t working. You are both so right about the bullpen but let us not forget that this bullpen needed exterior help when Fransisco went down and it didn’t come. The further removed from the playoffs the less one should want to trade any prospect for bullpen help. The opportunity may have been missed. Valdespin is finally starting in left today (Sunday). If they are going to keep a developing player up then he should at least platoon. Instead, they hitched the wagon to Bay, who frankly did not deserve the full time status, and he once again failed to meet expectations. Starting out with Bay in a platoon and having him hit himself into full time status would have been the fair thing to do for the other 24 players in that locker room who put them 7 games above .500 on June 30th.
This part hits the nail on the head: “The further removed from the playoffs the less one should want to trade any prospect for bullpen help. The opportunity may have been missed.” The only adjustment I would make to that sentiment would be to expand its coverage to include ANY move contemplated by the front office and not just those addressing the bullpen issue.
In the couple of weeks leading up to the All Star break the Mets looked like potential contenders for a run at the playoffs. In the 8 games since, all the reasons why they most likely won’t be in contention come September have become glaringly obvious. As others on this site have pointed out in recent days, any moves the front office makes at this stage of the game should be designed to help beyond this season. If an addition (and/or subtraction) makes the team more competitive for the remainder of 2012 that’s a good thing, but if it doesn’t help position the team for 2013 and beyond the move shouldn’t be made.
In light of the record of recent years and what people were expecting at the start of this one, a winning season this year should be viewed as a respectable achievement. Let’s keep the focus on moving forward to the goal of an organization that is perennially in position to win a championship.