I need a smile.
Seemingly all of the goodwill built up by the Mets’ strong play at the beginning of the year has melted away after the All-Star break. I watch games now expecting bad things to happen and that’s not how I wish to be a fan.
Need something, anything, to break this cycle to get back to being an optimist in order to enjoy the rest of the baseball season. And I think I may have found it. Mind you, I’m not proud of finding joy in this but desperate times call for desperate measures.
.245/.283/.371
That’s old pal Jeff Francoeur’s line in 385 PA this year. Among 61 qualified outfielders in MLB, Francoeur’s .647 OPS ranks dead last. Lucas Duda has a .726 OPS and the Mets just sent him to the minors. Francoeur’s (-1.4) fWAR ranks him tied for the least productive player in the majors among full-timers.
Last August, Francoeur signed a two-year extension with the Royals with $13.5 million, split evenly between 2012 and 2013. He did have a good year last year, with an .805 OPS. But Francoeur has made a career out of strong starts with a new team and then fading miserably in Act II. In his first stint with the Mets, Francoeur had an .836 OPS but only a .662 OPS when they dumped him on the Rangers.
At some point the Royals will decide they’ve had enough and call up Wil Myers to take Francoeur’s spot in the outfield. As a Myers owner in a dynasty league, I am counting the days. So this brings me joy on two levels.
Expect the Mets to get a win on getaway day now.
Brian,
Our friend Matt Cerrone on METSBLOG encapsulated this stretch of the season nicely — basically saying what I posted yesterday better than I did:
From METSBLOG.COM
“The Mets blew it… for this season. Now, I understand and agree with the long-term vision, and I bet Sandy Alderson and his staff have been mostly focused on 2014 this entire year (despite their record), all ‘looking over 2012,’ as one person familiar with their situation recently told me. But, this year, when presented with a team that was 45-38 and tied for the Wild Card lead, the situation should have changed a bit.
I’m not saying the Mets should have traded top prospects and sacrificed all of tomorrow for today, but sometimes things change – and, looking back, seeing how chaotic the division is, it’s becoming clear they missed the opportunity to at least continue and secure what was shaping up to be a fun season in 2012. Instead, for whatever reason, be it principles, the future, a strict budget, or a lack of options, they sat on their hands … or worse, they didn’t recognize the flaws on their roster … and now we’re left with the season everyone predicted at the start of the year.
The Mets are in a tough situation. I know they want to rebuild a franchise and better brand for tomorrow, even if it means sacrificing today. I get that. I know spending sprees don’t work, just ask the Marlins. I know the long-term goal takes patience, persistance and a thick skin. But at what cost? Is it worth disappointing your players, who probably bought in to 45-38 more than the fans? Is it worth putting your manager in the position to have to repeatedly answer questions from his players and media about what management is doing, or not doing? Does toeing the company line now hurt his credibility for tomorrow? Also, is having a laser-like focus on tomorrow worth repeatedly disappointing your most loyal fans?
Personally, I feel embarrassed for allowing myself to think this team could make the Wild Card this year… and that sucks. Worse, during the July 4 holiday, I had Yankees fans asking about the Mets, being almost supportive, talking up RA Dickey and David Wright, and acting more interested in my team than theirs. Today, they’re laughing at us. Again. Not that I care what Yankees fans think, but the point is: in the time between today and 2014, which may or may not ever pan out by the way, Mets fans need to remain and deal with being Mets fans in a city full of active, thriving sports franchises and other passionate fans. And, man, it’s not always easy… and sitting pat on a 45-38 season (which was getting headlines, making us smile and felt like it could be special), only to have it ripped from our hands like a misbehaving child, doesn’t make being a Mets fan any easier.”
Rebuilding in my mind… is a joke. While you want to accrue as much talent as you can, the fact is, no one can accuretly predict out how a whole season will play out with certain players(AKA scouts and “analysts” are mostly useless in predicting a team’s record).
That is, if you find a group that CAN and HAS won, you go with them and try to build and add pieces around them so that they can win, because you just simply don’t know when the next opportunity will arise.
GM’s always claim that their goal is to build a dynasty, or a team that will be able to compete for many many years… and that is bullcrap. Since 2007, i would probably classify only 2-4 teams as having met that standard(The Phils and Yanks, and possibly the Rays and Rangers(they haven’t done it long enough yet)) But even dynasties are nothing if they can’t bring home a championship, and over those 5 years, only the Phils and Yanks have won titles, which mean 3 out of the last 5 weren’t considered “elite” clubs.
My point is, if you can find a group that can make the postseason, you go for it because once your in, you have a shot to win. Don’t wait for the future because that may never come.
Yes, thankfully I also root for the Football Giants. 10-6. 9-5. The NYG organization knows that you just have to get in and the rest is a crap shoot—and can end wonderfully!
This year the entire NL was in flux and some tweaking by Selig’s Tool a month ago may have extended our summer hopes a bit, albeit with the new wave of injuries and regression it may have been moot.
Almost all of our moves over the last 20+ years have been weighted toward winning this year and have subsequently taken away from future years and what have been the results? Three post seasons, three near misses, twelve seasons under .500 and six 90+ loss seasons. This is what we spent our future on. Does this seem like a fair trade off?
We have spent 1st and 2nd round draft choices on Vince Coleman, Bobby Bonilla, Robin Ventura, Todd Zeile, Kevin Appier, Cliff Floyd, David Weathers, Roger Cedeno, Pedro Martinez, Billy Wagner, Moises Alou, K-Rod, and Jason Bay. We have traded away good young players for Steve Reed, Mike Bordick, Jorge Velandia, Billy Taylor, Roberto Alomar Jr., JJ Putz, Ben Johnson, and Victor Zambranno. We traded away Jason Bay, Nelson Cruz, Melvin Mora, Scott Kazmir, Jason Isringhausen, Health Bell, Jason Vargas, Carl Everett, Ty Wiggenton, Marco Scutero and Joe Smith. Brought in guys like Mo Vaughn, Jeremy Burnitz, Richard Hildago, Derrick Bell, Brett Saberhagan, Shawn Green, Brian Schneider, Kaz Matsui, Ricky Henderson, Brian McCrae, Tony Fernandez, Jeff d’Amico, Shawn Estes, Shinjo, Igarashi, Carlos Baerga Jay Bell, Luis Castillo, Scott Schoenweiss, and Mel Rojas. We’ve lost Endy Chavez, Jesus Flores and Darren O’Day in roster bungling and Sold 3 top draft choices in late season salary dumps of Wagner and Barajas.
All of these moves were done with with “going for it” in mind or cashing out after we tanked.
By any objective measurement the only true successes we have had over the last 20 years by category and weighted by cost to obtain are:
Farm – Alfonzo, Ordonez, Payton, Reyes, Wright, Davis, Niese, Gee, Murphy, Tejada
Trade – Piazza, Leiter, Olerud, Johan, Delgado, Lance Johnson, Gilkey
Free Agent – Beltran, Glavine, Wagner?
Waivers – Rick Reed, RA Dickey, Pedro Feliciano
Getting great or even good production out of the farm is the thing that has paid off the best for us, good trades have been mostly salary dumps or impending FA deals but outnumbered 99-1 with bad “go for it” type deals. Free agency has cost us hundreds of games with the free agent and many more with the loss of the draft choices. The three pitchers picked up on waivers were a Godsend.
Going for it every year has gotten us nothing except in years a Division rival furnished us with their best players. We’ve won 1 NL East title in 23 years of sacrificing the future and that was a year the entire NL East was terrible and the NL in general pretty weak.
The need for many of the FA’s we’ve signed is because of all the young players traded away or draft picks spent on a good year or two, or terrible year or four. The lack of depth was caused by the exact same thing which sabotaged the few seasons the plan did come together.
I for one am glad that someone finally is looking toward the future for a change in our front office because the results of “going for it” every year have been putrid and quite frankly couldn’t have really been any worse had we simply just been building up all along.
One NLCS in 25 years of going for it every year is not a success. It is an abysmal failure.
“Going for it”,is not the problem,going for it,badly,that’s the problem.The Yankees “Go for it”,as do the Phillies,the Red Sox etc.
Well the Yankees had to step back for a while in order to get their system in under control after going for it every year and failing 10 straight seasons. While Gene Michael was here they brought in a lot of guys to hold the fort that didn’t cost draft choices while they built up the farm.
Michael spent just one #1, one #2 and one #3 in six years. They drafted well, signed IFA’s developed well and bided their time all the while holding the line on go for it all type moves. Then they went out and used the farm to get the pieces they needed (Tino, Wells, Knoblauch, O’Neil) and added them to their prospects they didn’t trade (Jeter, Mariano, Posada, Bernie, Petite) away in go for it all moves.
Phillies did the same. They had been signing FA’s and giving away top draft picks for years. They got better by stopping that and being sellers. Thome, Rolen, Abreu, Schilling and others got shipped out. Rollins, Utley, Hamels, Howard and Ruiz all arrived around the same time. Smart team building got them Jayson Werth (non tender) and Shane Victorinno (rule 5) THEN they went out and filled in with trades from the farm. Lidge, Blanton, Lee, Halliday, Pence.
In both cases it started with the base and included surplus to add to it from the farm so you might as well say that it all came from the farm.
Both teams then tinkered and bought but what they bought joined a fully formed team, not a bunch of carpetbaggers all thrown together for a year or two.
“Each year, free-agent-eligible players get about 75% of payroll, but they only produce about 30% of all WAR. The average team gets about 12 WAR from Auction-Market talent, but 26 WAR from Non-Market Talent. At the current price of free-agent talent, it’s effectively impossible to build a team out of auction-market talent alone.
It’s possible to win big with NM WAR alone. You just need to be both very lucky and very good at scouting and development.”Matt Swartz – May 4, 2012 Fangraphs
It is apparent that the most cost effective way to build a team is through the farm system. Free agents of the high dollar multiple year contract are usually not a value. Free agents that are short term, like many of the one year pitching contracts in 2012, are less risky and serve the purpose of improving the team by filling a need. In general, free agents should be signed as short term fill ins not long term solutions.
Obtaining FA rentals at the trade deadline by taken on salary and only giving up second tier prospects seems to be the easiest way to surgically fill your needs for that particular season without mortgaging the future and interfering with the overall franchise plan.
The way the Yankees did it was with type B FA’s as short term rentals while developing the farm. Boggs, Straw, Gooden, Charlie Hayes, Tim Raines, Luis Polonia, Mike Stanley ect. While they were going this route they only bought Tartabull, Spike Owen and Kenny Rogers. That’s what got them to Jeter, Mariano, Mendoza, Bernie, Posada and Pettite and eventually brought in the pieces they weren’t able to develop. 1B Tino RF O’Neil 2B Knoblauch 3B Brosuis (who was a PTBNL)
Their continued success was due to them continuing to do what got them that initial success. Signing the best IFA’s, drafting well, developing their own talent some of which they kept Robertson, Gardiner, Cano, Nova, Hughes, Chamberlain and others they traded for from the farm Clemmons, Granderson, Swisher, A-Rod, Pineda.
Step #1 Acquire and horde as many talented prospects as possible.
Step #2 Acquire intelligent choices on one year deals to keep your head above water while developing and adding to your system.
Step #3 See where you haven’t developed and check the non tender, rule 5, waiver wire non compensatable FA lists and other teams farm systems.
Step #4 Trade for the right guy, not the most expensive big name and add them to your successful graduates of the farm
Step #5 Keep doing it.
Step #6 Never decide that you have to have someone or you have to make a move because this is what immediately preceeds a mistake either in a lost prospect or a dead ass contract.
The guys they bought by enlarge didn’t work out. Irabu, Contreas, Pavano, Burnett, Jaret Wright. El-Duque sure did but he (like Contreas) just cost money and didn’t take anything away from the continual build up.
The Yankees buy when they feel like it but aren’t restricted to the big FA deal because with their continuing commitment to the farm they can talk to any team about any player and consequently get the perfect guy, then decide what to do with them.
You see 7Train, we actually do agree on the overall philosophy we just disagree at where we were in that philosophy on June 30th. I felt that we had enough lower prospects on that date to acquire some bullpen help which may only have made a difference of two games in the standings or could have changed the whole defeatist attitude everyone is now experiencing and been more than just 2 games. We will never know. It is over, done with, opportunity passed and now we should stay the course.
Frustration often leads to impatience and poor decision making. Like 7train I have witnessed poor decision making by the likes of Steve P. and Omar M.
I’m quite willing to let Sandy A. build thru the farm system. It’s not foolproof but our history shows the folly of trying to build thru free agency, both athletically and monetarily.
The first half of this season was unsustainable given the thin veneer of talent. Instead of cursing the inevitable downfall we should be happy that this team gave us more joy than its talent merited.
That is exactly how I feel Norm.
The Mets were fun to watch this year. Improbable comebacks, 2 out RBI, No hitter. It was unsustainable but pure joy while it lasted. Now the trick is to remember the fun and discard the rest. Better times are on the way.
I stil will enjoy this team going forward.Duda is one hot streak away from having a fine season and Kirk could still have a really good rookie year.David Wright is always fun to watch.I don’t want to give away the future but a few low cost moves to improve the team and get us a .500 record would help a lot.81 or 82 wins would improve the attitude heading into next season.Help is coming from the farm teams.
Hai all, it’s interesting to see what this dry spell has done to fans, once united and celebrating and now in disagreement like Byrdak and Thole!
I propose a deep breath and some reflection from where we came this year. A number of things, things critical to the amazin’s success were not sustainable, and we all knew that no matter how sweet the taste of racking up Ws was. No hitter, back to back 1 hitters, 2 out scoring like mad, clutch production on a near daily basis, a guy hitting .400 for goodness sakes. That how we got to the ASB. A course correction was inevitable — and necessary. And we have seen it. These Mets are not a 7 over 500 club, and regular readers know I think we need to be aiming for 81 or 82 wins, which I think is still an uphill battle. I would have thought so even if we were 10 over .500 today. I do not think gutting the farm a month ago for 1 or 2 rentals would lead us anywhere any different precisely because there is not only one spot in need of attention. On the flip side, and thankfully, we are not the 1-12 team that befronts us today. I’m tempted to recount the numerous exciting and positive things the first have gave us, but being that we all know them, I won’t. Let’s enjoy all that. Lets have those accomplishments define this team. We know some really good pieces of the puzzle are here, and quite a few more are rushing to Flushing! I know this stretch hurts like hell, but we can’t let it be a similarly pretend reality. Fight harder. Develop grit. Send under performers down, promote competitors up. We need to go through all this to get to be a winner in the post season so that a highly competitive team can take the field. This team is not the last years Cardinals, dynasty or not. I completely disagree with the idea of just getting there and have magic happen. Baseball is not football. No one just gets lucky for three series in a row. We have plenty good that’s happened but plenty more to achieve before we make a WS. I for one think it is not that far off, perhaps the ’14 or ’15 seasons depending on how Harvey and Wheeler perform.
Let’s go Mets!
Interesting to read all these comments. The sudden crash and burn in the last 12 games has given me the feeling of someone who has been having a nice dream and then wakes up to find themselves living in squalor. The previous 5 seasons were terrible, now this one is, too.
The nightmare of recent years is attributable to poor management, I think. Not field management, although that’s been pretty bad much of the time, too, but the overall management of the organization. There have been bright spots scattered throughout the years but the great majority of the time has been spent stumbling in the dark, grasping about for something that works, falling down and being kicked repeatedly by other, better run teams, their fans and the sports media. During this time a god-awful amount of money has been spent, supposedly to improve the team. For the most part, it was spent foolishly (I hope someone remembered to send Bobby Bonilla his check this year!) Teams that spent far less have been to the World Series and won championships, while we’ve been on the ground, getting stomped.
The owner of this mess said his team was “snake bit”. Is that the problem – the team is just unlucky? Maybe it’s been badly run, from the top down.
Sandy Alderson and company are now here to change all this, or so we are told. Can they? How long will it take? What must be involved in taking an organization that has been so thoroughly dysfunctional, a fan base so thoroughly demoralized, a brand so thoroughly tarnished and making it all right again? I have no idea, but it sure isn’t going to happen this year. I expect I’ll be a Met fan until the day I die. Right now, though, the less time I spend following this debacle, the better I feel.
As far as Frenchy,I don’t wish ill to him.I didn’t want him,didn’t mind gving him up.Last season for KC is about as good as it could get for him.I never understood how a hitter who wont take a BB could have any real success.
Buck up AJ ,the franchise that was a joke from 77 to 83 was turned around pretty quick by smart management.