The big news today in Metsland is that Sandy Alderson turned down a trade offer from the Padres where the club would have sent Daniel Murphy west in return for Luke Gregerson. On July 1st this might have been an interesting trade proposal. On July 26th, if Sandy had pulled the trigger it would have been the classic case of locking the barn door after all of the horses escaped.
But let’s pretend that this offer did indeed come at the end of June when the Mets were still in the race and had not been demoralized by all of the reliever meltdowns. Would it have been a good trade for the club?
No, it would have been a terrible trade.
Gregerson has been a good reliever since he came up in 2009. Last year a 3.8 HR/FB helped mask a mediocre season. But in 2012, Gregerson has rebounded and his 3.05 ERA is right in line with his 3.15 xFIP.
Gregerson’s main pitch is his slider, which he has thrown a whopping 66.2 percent of the time in 2012. As you might expect, this makes him very tough on RHB, who have a .548 OPS in 113 PA against him this season. It’s a different story against LHB, who have an .837 OPS. If we could somehow meld him with Tim Byrdak, we would have something.
The last thing we need to do is go out and acquire a reliever that Terry Collins thinks he has to micro-manage. Plus, any pitcher who relies so much on his slider is an injury concern. While all pitchers are injury risks, the slider puts even extra strain on a hurler.
Since 2009, Gregerson has amassed 3.5 fWAR. In that same time period, Murphy has posted a 5.8 fWAR. And that’s with missing the entire 2010 season and one-third of last year.
Of course, we cannot just throw WAR numbers out there without regard to context. And the Mets need a reliever while they have numerous second base options available. The Mets are unlikely to find a much better reliever than Gregerson available and he fits Alderson’s stated goal of acquiring a player to help today and in the future.
It still doesn’t make it a good idea.
Bad luck and injuries have kept Murphy from having the career he could have – up to this point. In most other organizations, he would be the team’s starter at third base, his natural position. It has been bad luck for Murphy that he is in one a team with a star entrenched at third base and he has not been able to log much playing time at the hot corner since he was promoted in 2008.
The conventional wisdom is that Murphy is a man without a position. The reality is that his primary position is taken by the current face of the franchise. Murphy did a fine job defensively when given the chance to play first base. He has been a poor defender at second base, but he is still adjusting to the position and his bat still makes him a solid MLB starter at second.
So, we have a guy who can play 1B, 2B or 3B and be at least major league average. Chances are he would be above-average at either infield corner. People forget how good Murphy was at 1B. Lifetime, he has 19 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) in 1288.2 innings at first base. Fortuitously, 1200 innings is roughly a full season. Last year, Adrian Gonzalez had the most DRS among first basemen, with 12 in 1,352.2 innings.
With 10 runs equal to a win, Murphy has been nearly a two-win player at first base alone in his time in the majors. His hitting would put him middle of the pack for the position – his .774 OPS would rank 13th among full-time first basemen in 2012. Add in plus defense and you’ve got a nice player.
There is just no way that Murphy’s combination of hitting skills, defensive versatility, youth and contract status – he’ll be arbitration-eligible for the first time next year – are not more valuable than a middle reliever, even one as good as Gregerson.
And here’s something no one talks about much: It’s hard to be a good middle reliever on a consistent basis. Since 2000, there have only been 22 righty relief pitchers to amass at least 250 IP, fewer than 50 saves and an ERA+ of 125 and above. One of those players is Ramon Ramirez and we’ve all seen how he’s fared this year. Hitters are more consistent than pitchers and relievers have extra volatility.
In all likelihood, Murphy’s career is just getting started and there’s little reason to think that he could not maintain his current production five more years. Gregerson has already bucked the odds being around as a non-closer righty reliever for 253 innings. And it’s difficult to project him improving going forward. Only 54 righty relievers have thrown 400 innings since 2000 and 39 of those had an ERA+ under Gregerson’s current 119.
Lifetime, Gregerson has a 3.09 ERA. Ramon Ramirez had a 3.16 lifetime ERA before joining the Mets this season. Relievers are a crap-shoot and there’s no reason to trade a valuable player like Murphy to get one.
A mid-season deal to get a reliever should be for a C-level prospect and/or salary relief. It’s simply not worth it to trade a major league regular for a set-up guy. If some team is willing to trade an everyday player for a reliever, the Mets should be the one dealing the reliever. Now that he’s gotten in a public spat with Saint Dan Warthen, I imagine Byrdak is available.
The Mets should definitely explore what Murphy’s trade value is. We know the Dodgers were interested in him last year and the Padres this season. It’s clear that other clubs see him as a useful player. But if/when the Mets deal him, it needs to be for either a SP or an OF if they hope to get equal value in return.
A few years ago middle relievers were a sort of moneyball option. It was a way to get 70-80 quality IP for a fraction of the cost of the same innings from a front line starter or closer-type. Simply put, a team has to get 1460ip every season and if you can get 3 or 4 guys at a million or two each to put up 300 of those at an ERA+ of over 100, you’re way ahead of the game. The problem is, that after the Padres got 425 innings of better-than-a-front-line starter performance a couple years back for a grand total of $7 million, most of which was for Heath Bell, the price of middle relievers suddenly became $4-$6 million dollars regardless of quality which is a horse of a different (and not pleasing) colour. It’s viable to get innings from middle relievers, but not if you aren’t getting them at a discount. The Mets may not be able to get adequate value for Murphy, but it would still be wrong to then turn around and use him to overpay for those innings.
No doubt a good move by Sandy. If it came with Maybin then it would have been worth it.
I think your nuts if you think Murphy is going to bring back a solid RP like Gregerson and a player like Maybin. Im a Mets fan and I like Murphy, but I think you are really overvaluing him. He is a good gap hitter with a good average but thats where it ends. He is ok at best in the field and has little to no power. Im not sure SD would do Maybin for Murphy straight up. Maybin wont hit over 280 but he will steal 50 bases and play a very good CF (which is a premium position). Plus he is locked of for another 3 or 3 years at only like 5 mil per year.
I like Gregerson but you are correct. The Mets were not in any place to trade Murphy for a reliever. If I were to trade Murphy… even back when we were buyers I’d have looked for a starting pitcher or at the very least a much larger return than Gregerson. I wish the Mets would decide to be sellers at this point.
Brian, the problem with getting value for Murphy is that his power numbers for 3B or 1B are lower than many perceive as being ideal for those positions.
His 2B numbers are good but his glove betrays him. There might be some teams that are willing to accept a corner infielder with low power numbers but I’d bet they are few. The Phillies are such an example, with an aging Polanco. Can you see the Mets and Phils making a deal?
I don’t see any reason not to make a deal that improves your team, regardless of which team it is. It’s just that I don’t know what the Phillies would trade us for him. They’re not overflowing with young talent at the moment.
As for other teams, it’s not all *that* unusual to play a low-power guy at an infield corner. The Twins have Jamey Carroll at third base and he hasn’t hit a HR this year.
And of course the Twins have the worst record in the AL.
That notwithstanding, most teams look for power from their corner infielders and corner outfielders. Of course there are plenty of exceptions. All I’m saying is that Murphy’s lack of power as a corner infielder does diminish his trade value somewhat.
I would be willing to deal Murphy though.The Mets have options at second base.I agree this wasn’t the deal.