It was obvious at the end of the 2011 season that the Mets needed to make trades because the talent on the roster did not fit. Sandy Alderson made only one notable trade last offseason, but it did not address the logjam or bring in needed C or OF help. Now Alderson finally seems ready to do what he should have done last year and the reaction from the fan base is … panic? I don’t get it.
Much has been made recently about the Mets trading Ike Davis. The team has three people on the major league roster – Davis, Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy – capable of being a full-time first baseman. There’s nobody capable of being a full-time outfielder and after the year Josh Thole had, it’s an open question if there’s anyone capable of being a full-time catcher, either.
I lIke Davis – even have him on my dynasty fantasy league. But if trading Davis gets the Mets a power-hitting righty-hitting OF, I shake his hand and wish him luck as I usher him out the door. I truly believe this should be the reaction of every fan of the team. No one is suggesting trading him for a bag of broken bats and a pop-up toaster and you have to give up something to get something.
Rightly or wrongly, Davis likely has the most trade value of any of the Mets’ potential starting first basemen. And he absolutely should be dangled as part of a package to see if the Mets could get someone the equivalent of Justin Upton or Wilin Roasrio – someone to fit a position of need and to help balance the lineup by providing a power bat from the right side.
I recognize that fans worry that trading Davis now will be akin to trading Amos Otis or Ken Singleton as they were on the verge of having excellent careers. However, I have faith that the current front office will not trade for a guy like Joe Foy or overpay for a guy like Rusty Staub.
My question to you is: Do you oppose trading Davis because you have no faith in Alderson and company to make a good deal or is there another reason why you are so upset at the Davis trade rumors?
I believe Ike brings a K Hernandez type of
defense and, eventually a 30 plus hr offense…trade duda
I couldn’t agree with you more.He missed almost a full season.Just because a player has trade value doesn’t mean you trade him.THAT’S STUPID!Daniel Murphy is a spray hitter.Your corner infielders are your slugging positions are they not? Lucas Duda and Murphy are DH’S better suited for the American League(packaged them for an outfielder who can lead-off). The Met’s for several years have been trying to find a position for Murphy.The Mets keep drafting players that are not good fits. So they finally have one in Ike Davis and they want to run him out of town!Even if he’s eligible for arbitration you pay him.In the long run who will protect David Wright? Jason Bay? Or Ike Davis?Murphy is not a pull hitter so I don’t understand why Terry keeps batting him second? It’s hard to find a lefty who can produce 30 home runs and knock in 100 runs.
Trade the players who are limited defensively – Murphy and Duda. Davis is having an off year and still puts up good power numbers. Throw in his superior defense and he has a better chance of being the 1st baseman in a championship calibur lineup. We should be building around players like him (I believe he can turn it around vs. lefty pitching)
I absolutely love posts like this.
I can see it now. Some baseball GM wakes up, takes the train to the office, calls in his staff and tells them “let’s go trade today for someone that is limited defensively”.
There are no more secrets in baseball. The internet took them all away.
Every baseball GM knows that Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda, Aderlin Rodriguez, and Wilmer Flores are “limited defensively”. Only Rodriguez and Flores is worth investing in that liability becase of their tremendous power ceiling.
Duda and Murphy will retire a Met.
People don’t agree with you Brian, because what you’re saying makes no sense.
Davis is exactly what you want to get in a player:
Young, relatively cheap, under team control for a number of years, terrific defense, 30-hr power, clutch hits, probably will hit for high average without Valley Fever.
His upside potential is tremendous. He could be a monster.
So you want to trade for an outfielder who may or may not be as good?
I think a great-fielding first baseman with power is harder to find than an outfielder.
You think everyone should feel as you do? I’m completely baffled as to why you want to trade him.
Just because you don’t understand it doesn’t mean it doesn’t make sense.
You can be like Chuck LaMar and only make deals when you trade Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir. It’s great when you pull off a swindle but you miss out on a bunch of trades that could help your club.
The Mets have three guys who can play 1B. If Davis has the most trade value, trade him. If some club out there thinks Daniel Murphy is the greatest thing since Albert Pujols – trade Murphy.
Davis was a terrific defender in 2010. He’s not been nearly as good in 2012. Could be a one-year blip, could be something else — I don’t think anyone knows at this point.
And no – I don’t want to trade him for an OF who “may or may not be as good.” I have to question your reading comprehension if you came away thinking that’s what I said. I’m talking about using Davis as part of a package to acquire an OF who is BETTER than Davis.
How does what he has written make no sense? Did you even read it?
The reason for trading Ike is because 1B is a position of “depth” for the Mets. Like Brian said, the Mets could have 3 players they could trot out at 1B: Ike, Duda, and Murphy.
In his article, he specifically identified already somewhat established players that Davis could be traded for(Upton or Rosairo). He also mentioned players that, like Davis, are still relatively young and controlled for many years. They also play positions where the Mets currently have a need for. Nowhere does he state that he wants to trade Davis for simply for more prospects(AKA Billy Beane style).
Scarcity is the key in this game. You deal from positions of depth for places where you are scarce.
Now, i’m not on the boat that is saying that Alderson MUST trade Davis, but if an opportunity arose where we could get certain players and we had to include Davis, i would not be opposed.
I don’t understand the reaction either and I’m not happy that we might have to entertain trading Ike but it makes perfect sense. Ike Davis has a far higher value on the market than Duda or Murphy. Far higher.
No harm to anyone but his defense is nothing like Keith Hernandez. He rarely lays out and when he does he comes up empty. Even routine GB’s have gotten past him as have the running in scoops. Most troubling is not even attempting the 3-6-1 or 3-6-3 after throwing wide of 2B a few times and then settling for the 3U even when the infield is in and a slow runner at the plate. C’mon, that’s the whole reason you bring the infield in. To get the DP and Ike doesn’t even go for it. Plenty of times he hasn’t been in the proper spot for a cut off and have you ever seen Ike trail the runner on a bases empty double? Never! That is not good defense.
I don’t know what to make of his sub Rey Ordonez career triple slash at Citi Field this year but I don’t see him hitting consistently against LHP ever. Mistakes yes, Ike can bash them with the best but that doesn’t happen much in October and that’s the goal. Being limited to the mistake doesn’t help you get to October either.
Now maybe he will solidify himself as an all around threat but it’s just as likely that he doesn’t and what then? One more guy on a team full of them who has to be platooned or pinch hit for.
Sorry, I’m with you on this one Brian. I’d rather get a couple guys in A+ – AA who don’t need caddies.
Just because I said you make no sense does not mean I don’t understand what you wrote. I read all of it. I didn’t say you WANT a player who “may or may not be as good”. What I’m saying is that the player we get “may or may not be as good”.
I understand the depth part. Ike Davis is head and shoulders above all of our other first basemen. You don’t trade someone with his assets (I won’t list them again), especially since his trade value is not as high as it could be (his average was low this year, due to his health).
Also, when someone disagrees with you, you lash out and question their “reading comprehension”? Wow. If you’re going to blog, you might want to learn to develop a thicker skin.
I welcome intelligent dissent because it’s a great way to learn new things. Unfortunately you offered none of that. There is someone here who needs to develop thicker skin but it’s not me. If you can’t handle honest discourse, you have the ultimate control – don’t come back.
To follow up on intelligent dissent, we have a commenter here named 7train. I don’t think he’ll mind me mentioning him by name. He frequently disagrees with me and he’s one of my favorite posters because he brings something to the table and forces me to keep on my toes. The site’s better because of his contributions.
Wow, Thanks Brian.
I never take offense when people disagree either. That’s what we’re here for.
That and a great blog.
Thanks again.
A good blog should create healthy dialogue—and different points of view. I don’t always agree with the stats that Brian uses, but I value his insight. 7train also doers his research and presents a sometime different point of view. Mack Ade brings personal first-hand experience to the discussion.
The point is, this is usually done without demeaning the other person or using vitriol.
I enjoy the exchanges because they are mature and not insulting.
By the way, why not trade Davis? If the package is good, do it! The Mets are a losing ball club the way they are presently constituted. You’ve got to give to get, and we need a lot of “getting.”
What you say you want, and how you act are two different things. I think your last comment proved that.
I was going to clarify what I wrote, by saying that if Ike Davis winds up giving his team 40 HR 100+ RBI, and over .300 average (all very possible from what we’ve seen) for a few years, any player we would get would be very unlikely to provide that. That’s what I meant by saying the player “may or may not” be as good.
But I think I’ll take you up on your suggestion. You have too much negativity for my taste.
Barry – the negativity seems to be inside you and how you are translating a difference in opinion.
I agree with you and I’ve already had enough of you 🙂
Calm down.
Don’t see how you can say that if you look back on what I wrote and compare it to what Brian wrote.
If you’re pals, no problem. But objectively, I don’t think you’re right.
Anyway, Mack, thanks for adding condescension to this discussion.
Guys… have a pleasant evening, bye-bye…
I didn’t respond to your previous post because you said you weren’t coming back. But here you are again.
You chose the direction that this interaction has gone. The last graph in the story invited readers to share why they were opposed to trading Davis. You could have taken that path and said your piece and I would have let your comments speak for themselves, much like I did with the two gentlemen who commented before you.
But you didn’t do that. Your very first sentence showed what you were all about.
Wow, i have never seen someone get so negative and is so stubborn in their views. I’m sure glad you’re not the GM of my team.
Even though Ike obviously has a lot of potential and could turn into a superstar, he has better odds of reverting back to his 1st half form. He has a lot of holes in his game and it may not be an easy fix.
Name – I don’t agree.
I know this for a fact. He was very weak. He was also very stubborn and tried masking the fact that he wasn’t ready to play at the major league level. The Mets bought his act and the rest was history.
He did a stupid thing, but that’s all it was.
At thr worst, the Mets are pissed he was’t up front with them about his lack of strength, which directly affected bat speed
At the best, he was guilty of trying to help the team by doing the wrong thing.
Players do this all the time. Many don’t get caught. Some (Darrell Ceciliani’s hamstring) do.
If you are a long time reader of mine you would know I wasn’t a big fan of this draft pick. I wanted Alan Dykstra instead (lol). That being said, IMO, Ike Davis is a keeper. He’s young, cheap, a tremendous defensive first baseman when his head is on straight, and a 35/115 projected hitter for the next 5 years.
You just don’t trade what has already developed. You trade guys like Flores or Aderlin who “project” greatness.
All Ike Davis and the Mets need is a do-over.
Renew or resign Wright, take the $13mil you have to spend and go get a Bourn-like outfielder, and 3-4-5 Wright, Davis, Bourne in your lineup. Everything will start looking more like Wright-Beltran-Delgado everyday.
One important thing about the clubhouse…
It was great the first half of the season and has turned sour.
Players like Davis just can’t understand why a team player like David Wright has to be put through this shit. Then someone starts a rumor about Davis which he needs like a fucking hole in his head.
He loves being a Met, fought back to tie Wright for the RBI lead… this is a gold glove first baseman who had a really hard time with that valley fever (which he publically played down)
You don’t need to trade this guy. You just need to hang on until 2014.
BTW, this rumor bullshit screams of Rubin… he’s such a little pissant.
Yeah,I don’t believe the stuff about Ike being bad in the clubhouse,he seems like a popular team guy.I can say he seems to take plays off now and than,from what I’ve seen.
100% on the mark Mack!why do people want to trade a first baseman who hits 30 home runs, drives in 90-100 runs and can play defense? The grass isn’t always greener on the other side. People see potential(Duda) and think that’s the same as a proven quantity.Can you imagine Daniel Murphy playing first base?
Speaking of Adam Rubin, this can be his “revenge”for the Omar Minaya incident. And where is Jay Horowitz?
Jay Horvitz (not Horowitz) can’t control what Rubin writes nor can he deny Rubin access. Rubin works for ESPN and is the Mets beat guy for them. Slam dunk for Rubin.
BTW, Jay and Adam don’t break bread either.
I don’t know where you guys are seeing the great defense from Ike.I don’t mind physical errors but he often seems to not know what to do with the ball when he gets it.I’d be willing to trade him for value.I don’t like Rosario though.Too undisciplined,when pichers catch on next year that he wont take a walk they will bury him.Plus he wont hit the HR numbers in Citi that he does in Colorado.
I agree that Ike’s defense has certainly been far less impressive than during his rookie season. Can this be fixed? Probably. Ike is probably frazzled after this season because of the absolutly terrible start he got off to.
You try playing next to Murphy
Ike is the better hitter,(.333/.455/.788 career and 274/365/640 vs lhp) to Duda’s (.338/.429/.767 career and ..282/.338/.621 vs lhp) and the better defender. In order to get the outfielder the Mets would want, Ike will likely be the traded one but the downgrade to Duda at 1b will be made up for in the improved outfield. If Duda should fail to progress as a 1B then the Mets have two prospects in Flores and Rodriquez who may be able to move up in 2-3 years.
Possible outfielder:
Josh Reddick (Oak).256 BA .322/.491/.813 28 HR 75 RBI 9.8 UZR 12.6 UZR/150
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/should-mets-trade-ike-davis-and-or-lucas-duda/
discusses the topic in detail.
About two weeks ago, in a game chatter, Name, Chris F and I spoke about trading Ike. It was a great discussion. Either Duda or Davis need to be traded because Duda can’t play the outfield.
Look… last word on Davis from me…
stay focused on 2014…
The Mets had a 2012 payroll of $94.508mil.
Sandy Alderson is on record saying the 2013 payroll will be in the “$100mil range”.
The current 2013 ‘books’ stand at $54.475mil. Assuming you renew RA Dickey (+$4.450) and David Wright (+$14,250mil, that will add $18.7mil, with a new 2013 total of $73.175mil)
You dump Pelfrey ($6mil add on if you keep him), Torrez($2.7), Ramirez (2.65), Cedeno (1.15), Hairston (you’re losing him at 1.1 and it would take 3.5+ to keep him + he wants to play more often)
You sign Rauch to $5.0, Shoppach to $3.0, and give ARB raises of $250K each to Murphy and $500K to Davis…
You now have a little less that $14mil left to go get an outfielder via free agency and your 2013 team will be:
SP: Santana, Dickey, Harvey, Niese, Gee
RP: Francisco, Familia, Edgin, Mejia, Acosta (you can dump him too at $600K), Parnell, Carson, El Ramirez
IF: Davis, Murphy, Tejada, Wright, Turner, Thole, Shoppach
OF: New Guy, Bay, Duda, Nieuwenhuis, Baxter
2014: enter: Wheeler, Flores, Gorski (middle relief), Verrett (middle relief) + tons of money…
Relax
Sorry, Mack, but the word “relax” is not in our DNA. We are Mets fans and that means angst, heartburn, Wilponitis and usually heartache.
No, we do not relax.
Wow what a flurry of commentary and emotion. First off, I think the article was well thought out and timely and worthy of genuine discussion as we lick our wounds, try to comprehend the endless support Selig has given to the Wilpons (the report from yesterday confounds any ration whatsoever), and maneuver for the future. As my support for TC has waned in the last 6 weeks, the one thing that I can agree with him on is when he said: everyone can be traded.
I understand that our collective nerve endings as Mets fans are now raw, and to find some disagreement hardly surprises me. I have said here many a time, next year is already a total loss as well, and I hope for a .500 season and .500 at home, neither of which is obvious to occur.
The thought of trading Duda mystifies me given what we ended up with. Trading him will not get anything in return. The question I have is whether his upside potential can reach an every day MLB 1B guy. I think it could. His OF skills are terrible and he has no business anywhere out there. What would a trade fro Ike bring? Well, its obvious we dont have a single complete MLB-level outfielder. Catcher is no better off. In my eyes, we have plenty of lefty bats, and Ike could be traded for a power hitting righty batting corner OF or solid catcher that bats right. We would make up for Ike’s offensive production with the trade, or a combination of the trade and Duda. The plain fact is without shaking the tree, this team is DOA. Ike’s defense is no big loss. Any notion of him being as good as Hernandez cannot be derived from his actual play. I dont believe he will improve that much against lefty pitching. He’s still lost in the woods. Would I be prepared to trade a guy who is average in the field, batting <.250, and only hits right hand pitching on the road? Ummm, Yeah. The outfield is so disgraceful that any hope to even make .500 will turn on shoring up the infinite holes out there.
Metsense had a great proposal about looking into Josh Reddick in a trade for Ike. I still like it.
Might as well throw gas on the fire: Id be looking to trade Niese too. With whats coming up, and what we need, he's got enough trade value to really look at what might be had.
I like them both. Both are home-grown Mets. But if we dont seriously shuffle the deck, this team is in a downward tailspin that will be like the Pirates…more than a decade of losing seasons.
Chris
Chris F, I agree with you 100%. Except for the possibility of Brandon Nimmo sometime down the road, the system doesn’t have much going for it with OFers. To get a quality OFer we have to offer a player of quality. Duda is unproven, Murphy is a utility player. Davis is, except for David Wright, the most attractive everyday player the Mets have.
As for Niese, I would think that a young left-handed starter of ML quality could be attractive bait to fill some hole. I would also venture to say that R.A. Dickey is probably never going to be of more value in a trade. Why not trade him a year too soon, rather than a year too late.
Go even further. If Tejada or Wright were traded for young, quality talent, I would have to strongly consider it. We are probably going to lose Wright anyway.
Holding onto players for sentimental value, or because they’re home grown doesn’t make any sense when your team is in dire straits.
Take chances. It would be hard to be much worse than what we are now seeing at CitiField.
Brian,
Thanks for the article and much to think over and discuss.
Do you think that Murphy, with his work ethic, can learn to play decent defense at 2nd?
I love his line drive hitting.
I would categorize his defense right now here in September as decent.
I know what the numbers say and recognize that this may be a minority opinion. But here’s how I see it:
He does an adequate job turning the double play
His hands are ok
He has a strong arm
There are two problems I see with Murphy in the field right now. The first is that he plays way too deep, which is hurting his range. And the other is that he is just as susceptible to brain farts at 2B as he is anywhere else on the field. A couple of times recently he’s made a nice play fielding the ball and then just made a horrible throw. Hopefully experience eliminates the first problem and cuts down a bit on the second one.
Brian, the throwing errors are really unreal. And they go across the infield. DW launches some crazy things from third. Tejada is the least worrisome and when he realizes he needs to just hold on to some of the balls he cant ever get that will cool down. Murph, like wright gets in odd positions and hurls balls 10 feet over Ike, like last night. And then there is Ike, who missed a number of DPs and exposed Tejada because on a perfect 3-6-3 DP ball he throws well off of 2B towards 3B making the play impossible to turn and leaving Tejada outstretched and exposed to a hard slide. Throwing? Dont get me started…its one of our worst piles of defensive errors.
As for murph, it seems he is creeping in and now playing on the edge of the turf rather than short RF, and been doing a better job turning the DP. Tejada is a star with the leather though.
I played third base.
For years, Paul Altruda was my shortstop.
We knew exactly how each other played and both were known for our defensive skills, but we both had problems.
I moved better to my left so I liked to hug the line which prevented anything going through me and the bag for a double/triple… we also knew that my speed to the left allowed me the opportunity to cut off most of the choppers hit in the range of a shortstop.
Paul then played deeper and closer to second, giving him the option to always run down the pop fly over third base and the ground ball through the middle.
We had complete confidence in our ability when we played together, which only made us play the position better.
Daniel Murphy doesn’t play second base. He defends it. He has never developed the natural instinct it takes to know what to do with the ball once he has it. Great infielders don’t wait until the ball is hit to them to figure out what they are going to do under different circumstances. They just know and walk through the various steps one would take while the batter is still walking to the batters box…
one out, runner on first… hand-signal the second baseman that it’s coming his way… catch ball with left foot planted… whip ball to second under left arm at trajectory to second, without even worrying about if your second baseman will get there… he shouldn’t be there yet, but he will be.
one out, runners on first and second… same play but no weight on left foot giving you option to tag third and throw to first… much better option than turning body and throwing to second and must faster if you have arm speed to first…
and so on…
YOU JUST KNOW WHAT TO DO BECAUSE YOU HAVE DONE IT 50,000 TIMES BEFORE YOU GET TO THE BIGS
Ever see Manning throw a down and out? Bll is in the air before WR even makes the cut.
I played llater on for the CBS fast pitch softball team in Central park that had Jim Jensen as the pitcher and my shortstop was ex-Yankee Arturo Lopez (first baseman was ex-Met Duke Carmel). I played better third base with Paul because we knew what each other were capable of both doing and not doing.
The Mets have lost that with David Wright and Jose Reyes.
They have never developed it with Daniel Murphy and either Ruben Tejada or Ike Davis
Oh, fuck it… I’m so sick of writing about the 2012 New York Mets
Watching the Mets stumble/crawl/slink to the finish line has become nothing more than an exercise in masochism. Reading Mets 360, however, remains enjoyable. Thanks to all who contribute to this blog.