I’m getting excited about the Mets’ future. For real. I’m listening to my friend Mack Ade wax optimistic about the fortunes of this team in 2014 and beyond. I read with great interest a piece in MLB Trade Rumors that predicted a very busy 2013 off-season for the boys in blue and orange. I saw that John Sickles’ preliminary top prospect lists include four – count ‘em! Four! – Mets in the top 100. To the naked eye – and backed up by an admittedly small sample of stats — Matt Harvey looks like the real deal as a frontline pitcher. According to Jon Heyman , the team is starting – starting! – negotiations on an extension with David Wright at $100 million for an unspecified length of contract.
I’m on board.
It is refreshing to hear this much good news. If you’re not new to my columns, gentle reader, you know that I’m not used it and when it does happen I get a little giddy. I’m feeling giddy right now. I can’t wait for these so-far terrific playoffs to hurry along so I can watch a team get built. If we are to take Sandy Alderson at his word, there will be trades in the offing for a competent catcher, help in the bullpen and an entire outfield. If Alderson can pull this off with minimum gut-wrenching, his reputation as an architect will have been richly deserved. His New York legacy will be something far more significant than the current perception that he’s simply biding his time until Bud Selig retires so he can take over as Commissioner. There is a faction of Met fandom that sees Sandy as little more than a Selig toady, only here to slim down payroll so that Bud’s buds, the Wilpons, can hang onto the franchise they own but don’t love, and save a modicum of face in the process.
This is a pivotal off-season in the franchise’s history and it will take some deft handling to avoid making a hash of it. I still believe Sandy Alderson and his all-star roster of lieutenants have the steady hands required. Heck, they’ll get points if they can figure out how to jettison Jason Bay and Mike Pelfrey with a minimum of undue hubbub. The business of cleansing and clearing out seems to be complete. Now it’s time start building something. The future’s nearly present.
Pass the Kool-Aid!
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Charlie, is it safe to say that you would do 6-years, $120 million for Wright?
Actually, I’d cap it at $112-$115 mil.
The Post and others reporting: Mets offered $100 million but David wants $125 million??
My guess that if it’s a $100 million dollar contract, it looks like it is a 5-year deal with a option/buyout on the 6th year. I think this is a more than fair offer for Wright(in terms of pure baseball value) but i think Wright would like to be paid for some of his intangibles.
I heard reports that he wants at least what Ryan Zimmerman got from the nats(which is a very confusing contract that includes a post-career payment but is somewhere around 8 years $124 million).
I think as long as the Mets keep the contract under 20 million a season, it will be an OK deal. I don’t think you can ever expect a player to ever perform or exceed a 100+ million dollar contract. Hopefully baseball executives will start to realize that and then maybe player contracts will be more reasonable which will translate into hopefully more reasonable prices to go to a baseball game.
Charlie, I hope I did not rain on your parade with my question about 100 mill v 125 mill. I recognize that a player has the final say but since agents are working on a percentage, it can get testy. I hate greed entering an equation. At some point it may become acutely aware that a ball player can make more money in one game than a man can earn in a year. It can get sticky.
However, I share yours (and Mack’s) optimism, not only about 2014, but about 2013.
Matt Harvey has caused a few of us to whisper Tom Seaver’s name. I like our infield and I love our starting pitching staff. If the winter can fix the catcher/outfield issues, we will contend in 2013.
No rain, here. If it comes from the POST, I have to consider the source. The POST’s whole narrative is “Yankees good/Mets bad,” so if the Wilpons had signed the reincarnation of Babe Ruth, the POST would ridicule the Mets for Ruth’s being fat.
The initial offer always has a negotiation built into it.
Charlie, it really isn’t that far away…
1. trade Niese for Upton
2. trade 3 minor leaguers for Pence with verbal nod by agent
3. fast track Wheeler
2013:
Rotation: Harvey, Wheeler, Dickey, Santana, Gee
IF – Davis, Murphy ((Flores), Tejada, Wright
OF – Pence, Upton, Bay
Not far away, my friend
Oh… Mack… Can you make this happen?
Minus playing Bay in the outfield?
1. Tejada, SS
2. Murphy, 2B
3. Upton, LF
4. Pence, RF (Keeping speed in mind with LH/RH lineup)
5. Wright, 3B
6. Davis, 1B
7. Shoppach, C (Cuz… we should)
8. Baxter, CF
That is a great lineup…
That is also a lot of money.
But, it’s not yours and mine money.
A New York City baseball team should be operating this way. And fans should not be concerned with the money the team spends.
You do this… with Fulmer, Montero, Flores, and Nimmo in the wings… and you’ve got someting to root for. Plus, you sell a hell of a lot of tickets.
Niese for Upton straight up? No freaking way. I’d rather do Wheeler for Upton if you were pointing a gun to my face. Why would you want to sell low on Niese and buy high on Upton? On paper it might sound good because Upton is so overly hyped while Niese gets very little media attention, but in my mind it’s a terrible swap.
Upton is only signed for 3 more years, and at 10,15,15 million respectively. Niese is signed for 4 years with 2 options at 3,5,7,9,10,11.
A much better option would just be to keep Niese and use the money saved for not trading for Upton to sign his brother , BJ, who provides both power and speed(with a low BA and OBP).
Also, i doubt the Mets can afford Pence next year, but if the Giants were willing to take on 3 mid-level prospects, i might think about it.
Because the Mets need an Upton and don’t need a Niese. They have 5 other starters and 2-4 more coming.
Again, like my last post, is this money coming out of your IRA?
I don’t think we are discussing here whether it is acceptable for the Mets to maintain the payroll they have right now.
I’m being realistic and saying that Pence is too costly for the Mets to afford next year. Money IS an object for the Mets(and should be for all smart teams).
I understand that the Mets need an OF, but we don’t need to overpay to get one. And we don’t need Niese? That’s just stupid talk right there.
And if one of our SP(Santana/Dickey/Niese/Gee/Harvey) go down, do you know who is the 1st one most likely to be called upon? Jeremy Hefner. And you think we have enough SP depth for next year?
Mack,
Not bad but can’t see the Wilpons ponying up the $$$.
I don’t trade Niese for Upton. I’d trade him for the package the Padres got for Mat Latos, but not Upton.
Remember, any deals Sandy makes must still bring back little to even littlier salary. The 2013 payroll is still going to be minuscule in big market terms. Hard to get a new outfield and catcher, all productive and cheap, by trading low end prospects. That means someone good has to go.
Ike, Niese, or Dickey are the ones with the bullseye on their backs. In Moneyball, the movie, Beane replaced his three offensive stars by averaging out their OBP and finding another three, cheap nobodies whom he thought would produce the same average. I have a feeling that whoever is coming the Mets way might not exactly make us run for Citifield come opening day.
The new television cash doesn’t kick in until 2014, so the Mets will still be shopping at Wal Mart this off season. 2013 will be another patch job. It’s not until 2014 that Sandy can really put some funds to work.
I’m for trading off Wright and Dickey. With Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Gee, and a decent number 5, the Mets will have a great team in 2014 with a influx of prospects through trading their two stars and a boat load of cash to spend to plug their needs with great ball players.
This is a little risky but… David has stated he wants to play for a winner. Maybe he doesn’t want to wait through another year of losing miserably. How about, Sandy pitches him a plan… why not trade David to a team with a great chance to make the playoffs in 2013. Get a few great prospects who could definately help by 2014. After the 2013 season is over, the Mets could then resign David Wright as he enters free agency. He comes home to a much better team, with the nice contract, having possibly just played deep into the playoffs or even won a championship.
The risk is he leaves and sees how a better, non did functional franchise is run and doesn’t come back.
If that happens, the Mers still get a bunch of great prospects and a bunch of needed salary relief. Win win.
We have to assume that we have no OFer’s or catchers in the system above short season ball. Any trades have to be from the Major league roster for prospects in A+ – AA. Wright and Dickey should bring back two each. Flores probably handles 3B, if not it’s just one position, not four that need to be addressed.
Both Upton’s and Pence are among the riskiest players out there. Trading a young cost controlled starting LHP who projects to be a long term #3 starter for a risk doesn’t make sense.
Justin Upton’s SLG % is MUCH higher at home in Arizona, BJ’s a strikeout machine and Pence is approaching the end of his peak. We don’t need this sort of grief. What we need are LONG term solutions in the OF and behind the plate.
For what the Upton’s and Pence are likely to produce at Citi field in our lineup we can cobble the same production out of the 22 M saved on Wright and Dickey’s salaries and have four studs 1-3 years away.
more cost control…
yeah bad idea… just like all those overpaid guys all the current playoff team signed in the off-season…
Like who? Oakland? Cinn with Matson? Who’d SF sign in the off season? Yankees? Ibanez at 1.1M? Kuroda for one year at 10M Baltimore 3 years for Hardy at 22M. Washington and Atlanta no one, St. Louis Beltran but they let Pujols go. Detroit Prince I guess. His one single has made a big difference.
Bunch of trades but not too many FA signings by any of this years post season teams in the last off season. A lot of homegrown talent leading the way with trades accounting for the 2nd highest amount of production and some good play from FA’s, at least those who made the post season roster.
Pence…3 teams in two years. He just isn’t a great player. Philly, with all their money, traded him. No thanks.
Upton…I dont know, those Uptons are all ceiling. They never seem to fulfill the projections. The Mets front office would never pay him big bucks.
My thoughts remain. Dickey to the Yanks for Gary Sanchez. If Wright doesn’t sign a extension in the 6/100 million range, they must trade him. I’d prefer a strait up trade instead of the extension, but i understand the fear in unloading the face of the team. However, one of the greatest gifts Reyes gave to the Mets was a realization amongst the fans that anything can happen/nobody’s safe once he was allowed to walk. My only fear in trading though, is what Alderson would agree to in a return package. Yes, he got Wheeler, but I’m thinking you must get players who will be realistically ready by 2014 to play on the Mets.
That means guys who were successful in A+ this year. 2013 AA, 2014 mid season call ups with the way being cleared by trading the bookmarks we get with the 22M saved on Wright and Dickey.
Add a couple more prospects to the Nimmos, Evans, Cechini’s, Plaweicki’s, Fulmers, Montero’s, Tapia’s, Mateo’s ect for depth and the ability to make trades from the farm.
Yea Pence is a good complimentery player and that’s all. He can never lead a team, but he’s a useful player to have around.
J-Upton still has the potential to be a superstar(he’s only 25 next year and entering the peak ages of 25-28), but we’ve been hearing about his potential for 5 years now. He’s not worth giving up a super cost controlled young SP for.
BJ Upton on the other hand, is a free agent, so he would only cost us dollars and not players. If he were willing to sign a short deal, maybe 2 at most 3 years, for under $10 million, i think he would fill a good need for the Mets because he plays the OF, brings some pop, and speed. So basically like a Hairston with a glove and speed.
Yup
okay…
let’s forget Pence and Upton
replace them with BOFD1 and BOFD2 (big outfield dude #1 and #1)
1. trade Niese for BOFD1
2. trade a package of players for BOFD2
PUT A PLAYOFF COMPETITVE TEAM ON THE FIELD IN 2013!!!
You don’t have to upset the flow of top prospects from the sytem and you have
Tejada SS
Murphy 2B
BOFD1 RF
BOFD2 CF
Wright 3B
Davis 1B
Bay/Duda/Baxter LF
Shoppach C
Salary comes in around $120-130
Just do it and invest in the future.TV money coming the following year.
Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman agreeing to a six-year, $100 million extension during spring training on top of the combined $26 million he was due to earn between this season and 2013 be the baseline comp for a Wright deal? That comes to 16.7 M a year for 6 years and it would stand to reason that it was the Mets starting offer (they can’t offer him less than Zimmerman and be expected to be taken seriously) What is next? If Wright wants to stay with the Mets he counters with an 18-20 M deal per year and the Mets negotiate in that range and sign him. This amount is 2-4M a year more than what they are paying him and with the money of Bay, Santana and Fransisco coming off in 2014 it is a paltry sum in the scheme of things. It appears that this is the direction the Mets are leaning toward. BUT what if Wright wants to play for a winner instead? He would tell the Mets that until they show some progress in getting him support he would rather wait until the end of next season. (a polite way of bailing out without putting a price tag on himself and appearing greedy). What is next? The Mets would have to trade Wright this winter and not lose him for a draft pick, as they did Reyes. If that be the case, then the Mets should be looking to get back some major league talent in his place.
Last word on this…
IMO, The Mets can not trade David Wright.
It will set back the clubhouse, fan base, and, team for years.
You paid Bobby Bonilla.
Pay David.
Mack, what if Wright doesn’t want to play on a loser and it takes 24M per for 7 years to get him to stay? Is that feasable? Wouldn’t the Mets just be repeating history that got them into this mess of four fourth place finishes in the last four years? At a reasonable price, I agree with you. At an unreasonable price that would hamstring the budget for years then I would turn to Justin Upton like Name has suggested.
Metsense:
I’m buying into all this “we are the world” shit lately, though, I know in my heart that Wright was extremely hurt by Wilpon’s comments about him. Have they talked directly since? Well, if they have, I don’t see anyone reporting it.
An “unreasonable” price will always turn the head of, at least, the agent involved. Everything in life comes down to the money. I just wish this was over, and it will be soon, but the Mets also run a business and they have to put a reasonable figure on the value of even their ‘face’.
Leaking that you will offer $100mil means there is room to negotiate. I figure the Mets top off at $120-130.
Wright’s agent will not let him sign for the same amount as Zimmerman. Things like that just don’t happen.
I think the other teams know that the world just saw the best half of a season you will ever see again. He’s not worth more than $100mil for most of these teams.
It’s not a question of having paid Bonilla so we should pay Wright, it a question of being a legitimate contender for the World Series year in and year out.
This year with Wright (and Dickey) we weren’t.
Last year with Wright (and Dickey) we weren’t.
Next year with Wright (and Dickey) we won’t either.
The reason isn’t with Wright and Dickey, it’s with catcher and backup and 3 spots in the OF.
We can’t sign Wright and Dickey and then buy those positions because of finances and we not only are weak there now but for the foreseeable future as well so the question becomes one of do we sacrifice what we have in place for the future or do we sacrifice what we have in place for the present.
My opinion is that whatever we do won’t be enough either in talent or quantity to make a difference in the present, while what we could get for the future by dealing our present pretty much ensures an excellent chance of success.
Actually, the goal is to be division champs year in and year out because once you get into the playoff it’s such a crapshoot(I don’t think you can argue with me on this 7train 🙂
And why do i have to keep pointing out to you guys the O’s ,A’s, and White Sox as examples of how a perceived bad team preseason can actually turn out to be a contender? And conversely look at how the Angels and Rangers turned out.
LOL!
Can’t disagree with you there Name. You could lower the odds a smidge but one bad pitch, AB or call can still sink you.
O’s should be good. Their whole team is 26-30. The sweet spot. They’ve been playing good baseball teams night in and night out for 5 years. A’s are a surprise but they do have a lot of talent and are a well conceived team of mostly players in the sweet spot too. Remind me a little of 1969 with all the platoons. White Sox have a bit of pitching and a guy or two but they beat up a weak division with three 90 game losers who comprised about 40% of their schedule. Their old and they don’t have much on the way. I expect them to be passed by next years surprise. KC.
A very good point Name. Teams surprise and disappoint all the time.
Let’s see how many potential 26-30 yr olds the Mets will have next season.
These are the guarnateed
Pitchers:Edgin,Hefner,Niese,Parnell
Players:Thole,Davis,Murphy,Turner,Wright(i’ll put him here for now), Baxter,Duda.
That’s 11.
Now players that are on the bubble.
Pitchers:McHugh,Elvin,
Players:Nickeas,Lutz,Niewenhuis
That’s 5.
And now players that are in the Mets system who could play for them at some point next season.
Pitchers:Schwinden
Players:Satin,den Decker,Loewen,havens
So as of right now we have anywhere from 11 guaranteed, 5 probable, and 5 fringe 26-30 yrs old players. I hope that’s enough to win 🙂
Got me Name,
They might need a little bit of a talent boost as well.
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