It is a tiny bit surprising that we do not have any kind of idea how the Mets are going to handle their two biggest starts — R.A. Dickey and David Wright. Sure, the club picked up the option on both players but would it really be a surprise if either one or both of those players were elsewhere come Opening Day? There has been very little concrete news about which direction the club will go in – only speculation about free agents that the Mets simply cannot afford. So, let’s see how you feel about the direction the Mets should take with these two stars.
For the purpose of this exercise, assume a deal for either player would be a “fair” trade, meaning that neither the Mets nor their trading partner would feel fleeced, either today or five years from now.
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At this point, Wright is the face of your team. I’d have preferred having Reyes and Wright together… anyway you can trade Wright without getting another star player to build the team around both on and off the field.
By the same token, Dickey is a major fan favorite. It helps that he should win the Cy Young, but Really Awesome is just that. Fans love his attitude, the fact that he throws a forgotten pitch, how he climbed a mountain for charity. He’s not looking for Santana money either, so there is no excuse to trade him.
Find the money to lock these guys up and make whatever meager moves you need to. There is no reason these guys shouldn’t be part of the resurgence.
You never know about a knuckle ball pitcher, he may be trash next year. Trade him now while his value is the highest it has ever been.
Mets should trade Dickey to Red Sox for prospects. Wakefield would help Dickey! Red Sox have top notch prospects avialable!
The question should be:
If the Mets trade Wright and Dickey, will the team contend in 2013? NO.
If the Mets trade them will attendance go down in 2013? YES
Now, having answered both questions the obvious answer is sign both, either trade or sign an OF or catcher and play out the 2013 season hoping for the best. Any realistic Mets fan knows that 2014 is the real target when the Mets can actually have the payroll to compete.
If the Mets trade Wright and Dickey, will the team contend in 2013? -The team has a lower probability of contending.
If the Mets trade them will attendance go down in 2013? Most likely because attendance and winning percentage are correlated.
The fact is that one or 2 players don’t make or break an organization. While it will be harder to replace the production that those two provide, if the whole unit doesn’t perform well, it doesn’t really matter how well 1 or 2 players perform.
The goals of each organization are different. Some want to win at all cost and some want to turn a profit. The reason that there is major dissent and discord between the organization and fans is that the goals of the management don’t align with the goals of the fans.
In terms of cost-effectiveness, the clear choice would be to keep Dickey and ditch Wright.
Only a handful of players, which do not include Wright, actually deserve many years at 20+ million per year purely based on their performance on the field.
One approach i would go for in negotiations is explaining to Wright that if he leaves the Mets to take the best offer out there, if he falters on his new team, that team’s fans will have no problem immmediatly casting him aside. They have no allegiance to him and once he doesn’t provide fair value in return they will turn on him. However, if he stays on the Mets and declines, the fans will be less likely to turn on him quickly. We will remember the good times and the intangibles(“face of franchise”) that he provides to us. So, if he cares about his legacy and his reputation, he should consider that in his value assessments. That probably won’t work because most players treat this game as a business but it’s worth a shot.
Trade Dickey no matter what….he’s far too valuable to not.
Sign Wright ONLY if the deal is fair to both parties. No Jeter contracts. Pay him fairly for the next 6 yrs, but no more. 115 million over 6 yrs, any more and everything he said about winning first and money don’t matter was bull. This team can not afford with that payroll to waste any millions and he should know that. NOBODY is above the team, the NY METS, and if David wants to be paid like Prince Fielder, he should’ve hit like him. No one can burden this team with a bad contract until the Wilpons fix their cash problems. If David wants to win, then he needs to do what Chipper Jones did and except less cash so the team can afford other players. If he doesn’t like that, trade his butt immediately. Bye bye bye!!!
In my opinion, the most GM’s value HR’s hitters too much. They always overspend in both years and dollars to get those types of players, yet they are the most risky because power declines quickly with age and they are unpredicatable. It just doesn’t make sense to me.
I had to say that because you brought up Prince Fielder. But as we’ve seen in the past(Pujols, Fielder, A-rod, Werth) there are always stupid teams that will pay a super premium for certain players. That could very well happen to Wright, and he knows that possibility exists so he won’t give himself up cheap.
Dickey is one of the top pitchers in the NL and Wright is the top 3B in the NL. Isn’t it a goal of a team to have the best players at their respective positions? The Mets strength is their starting pitching. If the Mets trade Dickey then that strength is significantly weakened. Dickey’s WAR value in 2010 and 2011 was around 11.1 M per year. 2011 was 20.8 M. A fair extension would be 2 years at the qualifying price of 13M per year or 26M. In Wright’s case, an extension of 6 years at 18M a year is also a fair price. Much more than that, and you would be paying a significant part of your budget to one player. 18M would mean that Wright would have to average a 4.0 WAR per season for the life of the contract and his return to better defense has made this more attainable. If a fair deal can’t be reached with either player before the winter meetings, then I would trade that player in order to avoid the Reyes fiasco.
Great Metsense, Metsense!
One thing i would like to point out is that it shouldn’t be “x WAR is worth y dollars” but rather “x WAR is valued at y dollars”. The difference in those 2 statements is very subtle. Worth implies the seller’s/owner’s opinion of something while value implies a buyer’s perspective. Thus, David Wright should say, “I am worth 120 million dollars” while Alderson and fans should say, “David Wright’s value is 120 million dollars”.
(Yea i’m that bored)
Name, you catch my note on Santana today?
as a met fan since day one PLEASE do not trade wright or dickey. you have 2 solid pieces to the team. As the Giants showed pitching wins.
While R.A. gave the Met fan a big lift evey time he pitched this past season and is a fan fvorite think what we could get in position players if we trade him. RA is not going to get us to the promise land by being here but what we might get with the right trade will help us in coming years.I would actively test the waters and see what there is it does not cost us anything to talk trades
Dickey and Wright have one major difference.
The Mets have Jon Niese, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jeurys Familia, Jenrry Mejia, Collin McHugh, Rafael Montero, Cory Mazzoni, Jacob DeGrom, Michael Fulmer, Domingo Tapia, Tyler Pill, Logan Verrett, Luis Mateo, Steven Matz and other pitchers who show promise.
They have Wilmer Flores, Matt Den Dekker and Brandon Nimmo on the offensive side.
They can recover from Dickey’s departure by promoting from within but you can’t replace Wright’s offense as easily.
Dave,
Don’t be too sure you can receover from losing 200+ innings each year at sub 3.00 ERA, and strong WHIP. I think dealing Dickey makes more sense than dealing Niese, but I think signing Dickey makes the most sense with two qualifiers – 1. he won’t accept a “reasonable deal” (2 yr extension for around $12 mil with 3rd year option) and insists on 3rd or 4th year guaranteed or 2. another team overwhelms in trade, which to me is providing 2 MLB-ready, affordable and controllable players in some combination of these positions catcher, CF/leadoff, RH power OF, or closer. These players would either need to be already proven at MLB level or top prospect (D’Arnaud as example).
D’Arnaud would make some sense and I could see Toronto being a good partner.
Keep Wright, trade DICKEY to Red Sox. Wakefield is around to help Dickey if necessary. Take prospects.
Which Wright are we trading or re-signing? The Wright before the AS Game or the same-old powerless Wright who was awful in the second half? He’s a real long-term risk, IMHO. I’d like to see him in 2013 before giving him a ton of dough. If he jumps, he jumps—thems the breaks…
kjs,
Your mentality of “Wait and See” is the WORST possible solution for Wright.
If you do that, the MOST you get for Wright is draft compensation which might not be a 1st rounder based on the Met’s luck in the past.
You EITHER
Sign Wright as he’s the face of your franchise and you have almost no offense without him
OR
Trade Wright while you can still offer a team a full year of an All Star 3B
I don’t understand this “face of the franchise” cliche. Winning games are an organization’s identity. I have no idea if Wright can really contribute as he did from 2005 through 2008. If he had a consistent 2012, I may feel different, but again, the second-half DWright was bloody awful at the plate.
I attended 20 games in 2012, and believe me, no one showed up to see Wright’s face. There were no “marry Me, David!” signs. In fact, without tourists and giveaway tickets, no one would be there.
I’m sure a lot of other teams with non-compulsive owners and GM are just as wary of giving Wright a mega-contract—and that may even include a loon like Loria.
If we sign Wright to a superstaresque 7-year $130M contract and he performs as a complimentary player rather than an absolute stud, then it’s just another black hole situation a la Santana.
Met fans need to ask,would the mets be any better next year if they sign Wright and Dickey ? Answer, Definetly NO. Would it be another year of mediocrity ? Positively YES. Will it bring in more fans to the games next year ? NO . Will the worst owners in baseball (the wilpons)have the money to improve the team? NO. MET fans are stuck with these owners, and have very little to offer from there farm system. the only answer is to trade both for good and promising young talent to start rebuilding the team. like Reyes, these same fans that complained, soon forgot Reyes. that will be the same for both Wright and Dickey. So next year would you rather watch the same mediocre team on the field or the promise of some good young talent to root for? The wilpon show thier business savy by trying to sign these two from thier fear of some uninformed met fans. please sell the team and do all us MET fans a favor.