Next up in our projection series is David Wright. It was a tale of two seasons for Wright in 2012. In the beginning of the year he was an MVP candidate, playing his best ball in the majors ever. After the All-Star break, Wright was a completely different player, hitting worse than he did in 2011, when he posted a career-low .771 OPS.
Whether it is cause or effect, it’s impossible not to notice the difference in Wright’s strikeouts from when he was hot and when he was not. Here are his numbers in the two time periods mentioned above:
1st Half – .351/.441/.563 with a 13.2 K%
2nd Half – .258/.334/.416 with a 20.7 K%
Generally, splits have very little predictive value from year to year in populations as a whole. But in the particular case of Wright – because what he did after the All-Star break mirrors what he did in 2011 – they have to be a bit more of a concern than normal. So, with that in mind, here’s what our group thinks Wright will do in 2013:
| Wright Projection | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBIs | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gray | 685 | .292 | .387 | .525 | 25 | 103 | 16.5 |
| Groveman | 650 | .298 | .383 | .495 | 28 | 100 | 22 |
| Joura | 645 | .280 | .350 | .460 | 26 | 89 | 21.7 |
| Koehler | 670 | .300 | .390 | .499 | 19 | 87 | 17.2 |
| Manners | 670 | .301 | .390 | .485 | 22 | 95 | 17.5 |
| Mcwilliam | 585 | .290 | .378 | .497 | 25 | 99 | 17.1 |
| Parker | 650 | .280 | .365 | .450 | 17 | 85 | 17 |
| Rogan | 680 | .310 | .390 | .500 | 25 | 105 | 16.8 |
| Rogers | 590 | .290 | .350 | .470 | 25 | 95 | 14.5 |
| Stack | 653 | .303 | .385 | .487 | 29 | 99 | 17.9 |
| Stashin | 664 | .290 | .377 | .470 | 20 | 95 | 19.6 |
| Vasile | 670 | .305 | .390 | .490 | 27 | 98 | 18 |
| Walendin | 665 | .300 | .382 | .515 | 26 | 108 | 18 |
Most of us feel that Wright will bounce back from his disappointing second half and are predicting the sub-20 K% it will take to make it happen. The outliers are David Groveman, who is predicting an .878 OPS with a 22 K% and me, as I predicted the lowest OPS (.810) along with a 21.7 K%. Doug Parker is also bucking convention, as he predicts a 17 K% and an .815 OPS.
Here’s what the group thinks Wright will do
Finally, let’s close with a table comparing the Mets360 numbers to those of two projection systems – Bill James and ZiPS.
| Wright Projection | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBIs | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | 665 | .302 | .392 | .488 | 21 | 100 | 18.2 |
| Mets360 | 652 | .298 | .383 | .490 | 24 | 97 | 17.5 |
| ZiPS | 610 | .274 | .357 | .449 | 19 | 85 | 20 |
Not surprisingly, our group forecast lines up more with the one by James, usually considered the most “optimistic” forecast from any of the major projection systems. All three see Wright topping 600 PA and keeping his isolated OBP high. And ZiPS forecasts a 20 K% to go along with the poorest overall numbers of the bunch.
Check back Thursday for our next entry in this series.
David Wright is an awfuly tough cookie to predict for 2013 since he was essentially two different players in 2012. It all depends on his K-rate, because when he’s on he isn’t chasing.
My gut is telling me that he will resemble the player more in the 2nd half than 1st half. But i wouldn’t be surprised (and would be jubilated) if he did prove me wrong.
I think a big DW problem is that he gets out of his game and starts chasing pitches/overswinging when the team starts to fall apart. Hopefully he’ll be able to stop doing that at some point (would be even better if the Mets finally have a year where they don’t fall apart)
I think his overall season in 2013 will be pretty close to his overall line from 2012 and he’ll end up with an OPS around .870/.880 or so. That’s about what I predicted last year as well (pats self on back) so I am hoping for more of the same there.
He’s almost always had a good walk rate (2010 mostly being an outlier there) so I’d be surprised if his OBP ends up as low as .350… especially if he hits for a decent average. Even in 2011 when he hit .254 he managed a .345 OBP. I think the power might be a little harder to predict
Assuming Sandy does something with the outfield, Wright should have some protection in the lineup. If he’s not doing too much, Wright is more of a high average guy than high power and strikeouts guy. IMHO
David Wright has averaged a 4.6 WAR over his 8.5 years as a Met. He earned that WAR by posting a career avg of .301/.381/.887 with 26 HR and 105 RBI and playing exceptional defense. He signed an 8 year 138M contract which pledges David to a 3.8 WAR avg for the length of the contract. If David is to earn this contract, he will need to post at least a 5.8 WAR in 2013 (if you believe that there is a .5 WAR regresseio every year). Offensively I see David having a better year in 2013 than the consensus, more toward his career avg. I also see him slipping back a little defensively (he had a gold glove year in 2012 but was robbed). I see him posting a 5.8 WAR and I see him earning his salary over the next 8 years. He was a good , fair signing and his loyalty (reducing his salary in 2013) work ethic (early ST every year) and leadership make me glad he is a Met.
[…] All-Star, then flopped miserably after the break. The jury was decidedly out on what kind of 2013 Wright was going to have. What was the tell? What could we latch on to? Well, the Mets360 family […]
Couldn’t help look at the projected numbers for DWright. I’m a bit skeptical, in fact, I’m wondering if DW is more of the problem than the answer. Like last year (shoulder or not), and the year before, he pitch selection seems to be regressing – he simply can’t stay off the breaking stuff outside. I’ll be shocked if he reaches .270/15 hr/85rbi.
Just sayin’