Round three continues to get more and more interesting. We start to get a mix of high performers and high expectations. The good news for Met fans is that I’ve yet to hit a single name that I would discount (Were I playing a video game) as a lost cause.
Luis Mateo – OVR: 64 PEAK: 94 (Age 23)
What This Means: Mateo’s stats in SSA were broken, that’s how good they were. He was exceptional across the board and it shows (his 64 OVR is good for AA) but his age is a MAJOR concern. He was 22 in SSA and while his peak is listed as 94 he’s got a pretty short window to reach it.
How I Got Here: Mateo may have once gotten 15 points to peak for being a top international signee but the debacle with his fictional age knocked off 5 points. He still gets a 3 point bonus for his age and another 17 for the league that he’s in.
Parting Thoughts: The good news is that the peak being high matches his actual performance but he’s on a very accelerated schedule from here on out and will need to keep up. The bad news is that the statistical Gods of reality are not going to be on his side. He’s got 3 years to get through 4 levels of the minor leagues and while he will likely skip FSA he’s got no luxury of repeating a level.
Kevin Plawecki – OVR: 37 PEAK: 68 (Age 22)
What This Means: This is misleading in a few ways. Plawecki was good in the New York Penn League but his numbers were not good enough to DEMAND promotion. He was above the average across the board but not enough so to get him over that 40 point mark. He’s on perfect schedule to reach Savannah in 2013 and we’ll see from there.
How I Got Here: His averages were compared to the league average and came across universally above average but where a player like Mateo blew the league out of the water in a few key stats, Plawecki was JUST above average in everything. Like Mateo he only get’s 10 points (to peak) from his draft status. Otherwise it’s business as usual.
Parting Thoughts: Plawecki goes to FSA with a whole new bag of expectations. He’s no longer the desperate hope of the team in terms of our future at catcher, but he is still important. He will be expected to be ready in the next 4 seasons to be a steady back-up or potentially a future starter. The crisis timeline is off but he’s still a key cog in the machine.
Matt Den Dekker – OVR: 68 PEAK: 76 (Age 25)
What This Means: OUCH! This is why it hurts to fail at AAA. You have no peak bonus from the league and your development is just about done. In the end this only means that this is the MAKE OR BREAK year for Den Dekker in terms of his development. In AA his scores were 75/86 so there is some reason to hope for an above average CF in the majors but he’s out of chances to prove this.
How I Got There: The 5th round only bought Den Dekker 5 points from the hype factor and his age only an additional 1. AA was worth a pro-rated 5 as well. The numbers between AA and AAA (The often termed “Tale of Two Dekkers”) were pro-rated by time served.
Parting Thoughts: I’m still high on Den Dekker, while he’s older he’s also been accelerated because he came to the Mets as an older player. He hasn’t stumbled at a level in which he’s begun the year, it’s just a matter of needing time to adjust.
Wilfredo Tovar – OVR: 55 PEAK: 73 (Age 21)
What This Means: If these scores seem a little blah to you… they should. There is nothing to suggest that Tovar is a given to perform at or near Ruben Tejada’s levels (as has been suggested). He’s got good defense and is pretty on target for being in AA. Sure, he’s only 21 but is there all that much more ceiling to be had?
How I Got There: At this point you should be catching onto the system of Peak bonus and OVR scoring. The Hype bonus to Tovar’s peak was only 5 and I could see an argument for upping that a little but I think he’s going to top out as an MLB alternate (around 75).
Parting Thoughts: I liked Tovar a whole lot more before diving into his numbers. His age is a good thing but that is pretty much where that good vibrations end and the tales of blegh begin. He’s fine, but we’re looking at more of an Omar Quintanilla in the making than a Jimmy Rollins.
Gabriel Ynoa – OVR: 67 PEAK: 90 (Age 20)
What This Means: HOLY BROKEN STAT LINE, Batman! Yes, calm down… we’ve found a major glitch here and it’s caused by the extremely impressive bunch of starters in Brooklyn last season. Ynoa’s numbers are destined to dive and I’d say is ACTUAL scores should be closer to 47/70.
How I Got There: Look, he was averaged against the rest of his league but where Mateo had one broken stat, Ynoa had two. He had enough control and ability to keep the ball in the park that he beat the system and graded as a high-end AA player at 19. His Peak isn’t so far from his OVR you notice. He doesn’t have ANY hype-factor points. They could come later but he just wasn’t a big waves kinda signing.
Parting Thoughts: 47/70… is good enough to be graduating from Savannah and the fact that he’s only gonna be 20 speaks to his future in the organization. He’s not the kind of pitcher that anyone would look at and think “There’s my future Ace” but he’s got the control to factor in down the line as a back-end rotation arm… which is no bad thing.
I was humming along with everything making sense until I hit Ynoa. Then things got silly. You will see that I’ve knocked Ynoa down 20 points from what he scored as a reality check. That might not be fair… but it certainly makes things more realistic… unless people think Gabriel Ynoa is a future Ace… anyone? Bueller?
|
Rank |
Name |
OVR |
PEAK |
|
1 |
Zack Wheeler, RHP |
76 |
98 |
|
2 |
Travis D’Arnaud, C |
83 |
100 |
|
3 |
Noah Syndergaard, RHP |
59 |
95 |
|
4 |
Rafael Montero, RHP |
69 |
95 |
|
5 |
Wilmer Flores, 3B |
63 |
91 |
|
6 |
Domingo Tapia, RHP |
57 |
92 |
|
7 |
Luis Mateo, RHP |
64 |
94 |
|
8 |
Michael Fulmer, RHP |
50 |
86 |
|
9 |
Jeurys Familia |
70 |
87 |
|
10 |
Brandon Nimmo |
39 |
80 |
|
11 |
Matt Den Dekker |
68 |
76 |
|
12 |
Gavin Cecchini |
28 |
70 |
|
13 |
Kevin Plawecki |
37 |
68 |
|
14 |
WilfredoTovar |
55 |
73 |
|
15 |
Gabriel Ynoa |
47 |
70 |
I see Tovar being much more of a contributor at the major league level than Quintanilla has been.
A lot will depend on how Tovar develops offensively but I am encouraged by his career-high .101 ISO as a 20 year old in Hi-A. Also, the fact that it didn’t crater – .078 – at Double-A was good, too.
I think it’s interesting that in a nearly identical sample size, Tovar’s OPS at Double-A was one point behind what Cecchini put up in Kingsport. I think there’s a greater difference in levels between the Appy and the Eastern Leagues than there is in the two calendar years in their age.
I felt the same way about Ruben Tejada, so hopefully I’m forced to eat crow twice. I don’t see enough from Tovar for him to be much more than an alternate type of player. The ONLY thing keeping Cecchini above Tovar on my spectrum is the hype meter. Gavin was, for better or worse, a first round pick. Tovar was not nearly as big of a name.
I’m still high on MDD as well, though I’m finding that I may hold out hope on prospects longer than I probably should. At the very least, he should be an excellent 5th OF/defensive replacement type (he could probably be that right now, actually).
Not sure I agree with you knocking Ynoa down. I mean, I can see it with Mateo because of age, but Ynoa is young enough that his stats shouldn’t be taken with a grain of salt (IMO). Of course, that is assuming he actually was 19 last season….
Fantastic series, David.
It’s arbitrary, but there is nothing on my reports about Ynoa that suggest he’s a future 90/90 pitcher. It becomes further unlikely because were he to be on track to be a 90/90 his peak should not yet be 90 in the Penn league. Round 4 is chock full of stat breakers: Lupo, Leathersich, DeGrom and Vaughn and I’ve not felt the same need to correct the findings as I did with Ynoa. Maybe in round 5 with Rainy Lara?
Not a bad list, but I’d slide den Dekker down a few slots. I realize the glove is excellent, but I’m very weary of his bat. To me he seems much more like an all-glove, no-hit kind of guy. Also I love Gabe Ynoa, but I agree, he’s in for some regression this season once he hits Savannah.
Den Dekker is NOT a no-hit kind of guy. He’s a CF with substantial power and he HAS hit at each level he’s started at. He has consistently struggled after promotion. I would bet he does well in the PCL and AWFUL in the MLB in 2013.
David, I respect your opinion with the minors but when it comes to understanding the analysis theory you used it was “Metsenses Day Off” ! Great line, it made me lol !
It is like OPS+ but factoring in additional stat lines.
So the players are compared to the standards of their level then there scores are averaged against a score symbolizing that level.
AAA = 70
AA = 60
A+ = 50
FSA = 40
SSA = 35
RK = 30
DSL = 25
So each of the scores is multiplied by their rank.
In cases where players split time I would factor the games played and average the two levels accordingly.