Mets Minors: Ratings by the numbers Vicente Lupo and the stat breakers

Round four is a doozy. These players each in their own way defied statistical logic and shined to an exemplary level at their level of play.  The caveat here is obviously that players will do big things one year and disappear the next.  The hope is that most of these guys make good on the promise they’ve shown.

Vicente Lupo – OVR: 63 PEAK: 94 (Age 19)

What This Means: Have I gone mad?  Giving a 94 Peak to a player in the DSL!  That’s crazy talk.  Well so is a player who scores a 63 OVR on a 25 point base.  That kind of score would suggest that he is ready for AA, what gives?  You penalized Ynoa in SSA why not Lupo from the DSL.  The difference is HOW I got there.

How I Got Here: Lupo’s stats are broken.  A player does not score a 63 on a base of 63 without breaking stats.  Yet where Ynoa broke two stat points… Lupo broke all of them, he just didn’t break any to a ridiculous level that makes me re-work the score.  All of his averages were checked against a base of 25 and he didn’t have the statistical anomalies that result in scores over 100 in a side category.

Parting Thoughts: I’ve left Lupo with his gaudy score and I hope he eventually earns it.  It’s probably premature to rank him beneath Fulmer but at the same time… how could I rank him lower with those scores.  He’s got higher scores than Wilmer Flores!  Calm down… he’s going to be 19, he’s going to be in rookie ball and he has just as much time to prove human as he does to prove he is super-human.

Jack Leathersich – OVR: 63 PEAK: 84 (Age 22)

What This Means: Jack scoring well for AA is less suspect than Lupo.  Afterall, Leathersich did pitch a significant portion of the year in A+ and was working off bases of 40 and 50.  I’m plenty bullish on Leathersich but the scouting reports give me pause.  The WAY that his massive K numbers are coming about is not typical.  He’s not a fireballer, he’s deceptive and that makes me wonder if those gaudy K/9’s will continue.

How I Got Here: Leathersich split his time between Savannah  and Port St. Lucie.  Nothing strange there, but his numbers in Savannah were off the charts.  Good news for my system the St. Lucie numbers brought him back down to earth, which is what I, personally, wanted to see.  He will get to repeat in A+ and will hopefully see his ERA, WHIP and BB/9 drop without his K/9 also dropping.

Parting Thoughts: Without a huge fastball I can’t say I’m in the camp that Leathersich is a future closer.  It looks more like he’s a future setup pitcher and an impact lefty.  J.P. Ricciardi thinks Leathersich may see time with the Mets in 2013 and I could see that as a LOOGY (A strikeout LOOGY).

Jacob DeGrom – OVR: 66 PEAK: 86 (Age 25)

What This Means: Guess what?  DeGrom is almost ready for the majors with his success in Savannah and Port St. Lucie.  Guess what else?  He NEEDS to be.  He’s 25 and that means he’s in his last year of “prospect status” in this system I’ve created and he needs to be MLB ready by 2014 at the latest.

How I Got There: DeGrom’s numbers in Savannah accounted for most of his figures in general but the numbers only got better in Port St. Lucie so that is a little deceptive.  Like Lupo he was a broken in aspects across the board… except for one.  DeGrom is not a strikeout pitcher.  Nor is he a “Contact Pitcher” he’s got a K/9 around 7.8 which is where the average score for a pitcher in most levels should be.

Parting Thoughts: DeGrom was a great story for the Mets in 2012 but in 2013 he needs to accelerate because he’s running out of time.  At 25 the time to produce is NOW.

Cory Vaughn  – OVR: 55 PEAK: 77 (Age 24)

What This Means: On the basic level, he’s shown us that he’s good enough for AA and is among the better players at A+.  He’s also shown the ability to perform at a lower level in the majors down the line.

How I Got There: Vaughn was an interesting case because where he was exceptional… it’s hard to fault him.  He’s got plenty of power and actually knows how to take a walk.  That will serve him well but he needs to pull that average a few ticks higher and show some better defense.

Parting Thoughts: I’m a known fan of Cory Vaughn but I still would argue that he has a future starting in one of the corners of the Met outfield.  The problems with his play are mostly an “All or Nothing” swing.  If he can reign that in a little we’ll be looking at a 30 HR hitter with 20 SB speed.

Phillip Evans – OVR: 36 PEAK: 69 (Age 20)

What This Means: Wait, I thought Evans looked better than this?  He did… in 2011.  In 2012 he was pretty human and had numbers in SSA that were on average with most players in SSA.

How I Got There: When you hit to the league average in most stats you wind up scoring around the league average of 35.

Parting Thoughts: While his numbers don’t suggest big things to come note this: He does play SS.  While he holds onto this position eligibility he’s got a boosted value.  Just don’t get carried away with his over-slot value.  He’s good but not great.

Unlike round 3, round 4 had much less in ways of surprises although I wasn’t expecting Lupo to crack my top 10 after only playing in the DSL.  Round 5 will cap off this series and will include Aderlin Rodriguez, Rainy Lara, Danny Muno, Hansel Robles and Cesar Puello.  Then we’ll be catching Spring Fever.