Next up in our projection series is Shaun Marcum. The Mets acquired Marcum on an incentive-laden deal, to replace R.A. Dickey in the rotation. No one expects Marcum to come close to Dickey’s 20 Wins or 233.2 IP or his 2.73 ERA, which is a good thing since Marcum has never done any of those things and comes in as an injury risk. Here’s what we think Marcum will do in 2013:
| Marcum Projection | IP | ERA | Ks | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gray | 162 | 3.62 | 128 | 55 | 18 |
| Hangley | 172 | 3.73 | 117 | 43 | 16 |
| Joura | 115 | 4.35 | 89 | 38 | 13 |
| Koehler | 150 | 3.70 | 123 | 50 | 22 |
| Manners | 170 | 3.90 | 145 | 50 | 18 |
| Mcwilliam | 190 | 3.69 | 153 | 39 | 19 |
| OMalley | 156 | 3.63 | 129 | 45 | 20 |
| Parker | 175 | 3.60 | 130 | 50 | 17 |
| Rogan | 155 | 3.75 | 125 | 52 | 19 |
| Rogers | 180 | 3.60 | 120 | 50 | 20 |
| Stack | 175 | 3.68 | 133 | 47 | 18 |
| Vasile | 160 | 3.60 | 135 | 50 | 17 |
| Walendin | 128.1 | 3.43 | 102 | 40 | 15 |
Nearly everyone expects Marcum to bounce back towards his career ERA mark, rather than the 4.32 ERA he had when he returned from the DL last year. Since Marcum will be performing in a pitcher-friendly park for the first time in his career, there is some reason for optimism here, if he can stay healthy.
Here’s what the group thinks Marcum will do in 2013:
Marcum has outperformed his FIP each year he’s been in the majors. Our numbers above would have him posting a 3.98 FIP compared to a 3.68 ERA, continuing that trend.
We have now projected each of the Mets’ five starting pitchers. Collectively, we have them for 864.2 IP and a 3.63 ERA and we should be thrilled if they match these numbers in reality. The five SP with the most innings for the 2012 club notched 765.2 IP and recorded a 3.63 ERA. So, we’re expecting an additional 100 innings from the main five guys with no dropoff in quality, despite losing the player who gave the most IP and the best ERA.
Finally, let’s close with a table comparing the Mets360 numbers to those of the projection systems available from FanGraphs:
| Marcum Projection | IP | ERA | Ks | BB | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | 196.0 | 3.63 | 161 | 58 | 25 |
| Mets360 | 160.2 | 3.68 | 125 | 47 | 18 |
| Oliver | 169.0 | 3.47 | 139 | 47 | 14 |
| Steamer | 158 | 4.12 | 119 | 46 | 21 |
| ZiPS | 159.2 | 3.89 | 140 | 46 | 19 |
Our forecast fit in for the most part with the systematic approaches. Steamer is very negative on his ERA while the James projection is very optimistic on his strikeouts. Perhaps the most interesting thing is how close our forecast is to the ZiPS projection. As a whole, our predictions have been very “optimistic” while ZiPS has been “pessimistic” about Mets players. It took a guy who didn’t play in New York last year for us to see eye to eye.
Check back Saturday for our next entry in this series.
115 IP? Please explain your thinking.
I predicted every other pitcher on the staff to have at least 180 IP and it’s likely that at least one pitcher will not have a full workload. I picked Marcum because he spent considerable time on the DL last year and was not the same guy when he came back. Could be a small sample size thing or could be an indication he was not 100% healthy…
Brian,
Kinda off topic, but do you plan on doing any Game Chatters for Spring Training games?
I hope so but probably not this weekend as I’ll be out of town.
I hope Marcum pitches to the consensus but I think Zips has it right. I also think that Wheeler will replace Santana by mid year (hopefully by trade because Santana is pitching well and not injured). I also hope that by midyear, Mejia or McHugh is ready to step into the rotation and Marcum is traded for the same reason as Santana. The clock is ticking on Mejia and Mchugh because Sring Training 2014 may be their last chance because the next wave of starters will be looking to pass them on the depth chart. Hopefully trade deadline 2013 will jettison Santana, Marcum and Buck for some OF prospects and the final groundwork for 2014 will be established. I tip my hat to Sandy for the smart aquisition of Marcum.
And I hear I thought I was being a pessimist when it came to Marcum’s inning count.
That should read “and here I thought I was being a pessimist when it came to Marcum’s inning count.”
That’s what I get for commenting on an iPhone.
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I think gee and marcum will give 160-170 innings while Harvey give around 170-175 and niese 190 plus.
[…] in the Mets360 preseason projection review is Shaun Marcum. The original piece with the projections can be found here. As a group, the Mets360 staff projected the following line for […]