Next up in our projection series is Bobby Parnell. This could be the year that Parnell finally takes the closer’s role, as he is likely to at least fill in while Frank Francisco recovers from his elbow injury. The big two questions are how long will Francisco be out and will Parnell be able to handle being the guy to get the final three outs.
Parnell definitely struggled when given a chance to close games after the Mets traded Francisco Rodriguez in 2011. But he became a different pitcher last year, sacrificing velocity for location and adding what has been described both as a curve and a knuckle-curve. The results were terrific in 2012, as Parnell notched a 2.49 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP, both career-bests.
Here’s what we think Parnell will do in 2013:
| Parnell Projection | IP | ERA | Ks | BB | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hangley | 42 | 3.00 | 48 | 26 | 32 |
| Joura | 62 | 2.65 | 60 | 22 | 31 |
| Koehler | 70 | 2.75 | 60 | 23 | 15 |
| Mcwilliam | 50.1 | 4.01 | 52 | 21 | 29 |
| OMalley | 70 | 3.20 | 65 | 25 | 15 |
| Parker | 70 | 3.20 | 70 | 30 | 17 |
| Rogan | 74 | 2.85 | 76 | 26 | 28 |
| Rogers | 70 | 3.20 | 65 | 25 | 8 |
| Stack | 70.1 | 2.54 | 69 | 19 | 31 |
| Vasile | 71 | 2.90 | 65 | 25 | 31 |
| Walendin | 65 | 2.85 | 71 | 19 | 10 |
Again we see a pretty wide range of outcomes for Parnell, anywhere from 42 to 74 IP, an ERA from 2.54 to 4.01 and Saves ranging from eight to 32. If Parnell can put together the season that Joura, Stack or Vasile predict, the Mets will be in good shape with the back of their bullpen.
Here’s what the group as a whole thinks Parnell will do in 2013:
If you were to invent a closer from scratch, you’d give him a monster fastball and a high strikeout rate. Parnell certainly has those things in his favor. The big question is his control. He’s had four full seasons in the majors and the two where he had a BB/9 below 3.0 were easily his best. The other two years his BB/9 were over 4.0 and he posted ERAs of 3.64 and 5.30 in those campaigns.
Manager Terry Collins showed great faith in Francisco last year, staying with him as he blew some early leads. What remains to be seen is if Collins’ faith was in Francisco or with having just one closer on the team. If Francisco is able to come back sooner rather than later – and Collins’ faith was in the player rather than the role – then Parnell’s stint as closer could be a brief one here in 2013. But if Parnell gets off to a strong start and Francisco needs a month to be ready to assume the role, it’s not hard to envision Collins riding Parnell for the full season. After all, Francisco is a free agent at the end of the year while Parnell remains under team control for two additional seasons.
Finally, let’s close with a table comparing the Mets360 numbers to those of the projection systems available from FanGraphs:
| Parnell Projection | IP | ERA | Ks | BB | Saves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill James | 73 | 4.07 | 62 | 26 | 24 |
| Mets360 | 65 | 2.90 | 64 | 24 | 22 |
| Oliver | 72 | 3.15 | 68 | 25 | |
| Steamer | 55 | 3.20 | 50 | 20 | 9 |
| ZiPS | 69.2 | 3.49 | 66 | 25 |
Neither Oliver nor ZiPS project Saves, although Oliver did forecast Parnell picking up 22 Holds. Our prediction is easily the most optimistic, although it seems unlikely that Parnell would post the K/BB numbers that James predicts and still have an ERA that high. Also, the Steamer projection seems off with its Games and IP numbers. Ours might be the forecast that looks best once all is said and done.
Check back this weekend for our next entry in this series.
Transcription error!
Chris Walendin’s prediction has been updated to show Parnell with 71 Ks and 19 BB. This also changes our group’s prediction to 64 Ks and 24 BB.
All numbers outside of the graphic have been updated in the post.
Parnell is a frustrating player.He throws so hard yet he isn’t dominant,his ball is just so straight.
That’s why it was so important for him to learn the knuckle-curve.
Does he have a third pitch to go along with that and the straight gas?
I ask this as a serious question: What more could you want than what Parnell did in 2012? If everyone else in the Mets’ pen had a 2.49 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP – it would have been fantastic.
He had a career-best 3.05 K/BB ratio and a career-best .302 BABIP. In 9th inning save opportunities, he was 7-for-8
This is what most of are complaining about.
Per baseball reference:
High leverage: .294/.360/.343
Med leverage: .173/.200/.308
Low leverage: .243/.296.364
Stats don’t even tell the whole story. This guy gives up so many seeing eye hits/bloops/squibblers that it’s just unexplainable. Opposing batters just have a way with him.
But you’re only giving part of the story, providing zero context. What’s the league average in those same situations?
The NL as a whole in 2012 had a .736 OPS in high leverage situations while Parnell had a .703 OPS. So, you’re upset that Parnell went from magnificent in medium leverage situations to only above average in high leverage situations?
But that stat you used is also out of context of my point. I’m not a Parnell fan, but I’ll concede that he is a Major league reliever, and most likely an above average one. But that’s all i think he is.
If you compared his numbers to let’s say, just setup men and closers because those are supposedly his peers, i’m sure his numbers would rank near the bottom of those lists. After all, pitchers like Miguel Batista are included in those stats.
The original question i was trying to answer was “What more could you want than what Parnell did in 2012?” Even without the context of league averages, it’s clear that one area he needs to improve is high leverage situations. If you look at his 2010 and 2011 season you’ll also see that he has about the same significant splits between hi and low/med situations.
I think a good comp for Parnell is someone who just signed with the Mets-Brandon Lyon. He’ll get shots at the closer role with lots of set-up jobs but will never cement himself as a true late game reliever
>This guy gives up so many seeing eye hits/bloops/squibblers that it’s just unexplainable.
So…he gets weak contact and you’re knocking him for it?
Yes if you look at it from that perspective, it could be viewed as weak contact. But is it really weak if the fielders can’t get to it? If you look at it from the other side, it could be viewed at getting the job done and timely hitting.
I would be very happy with Parnell if he repeated 2012 but I don’t think he he will meet the consensus projection. Relief pitchers pitch so few innings that one or two bad appearences can skew the ERA. Bobby is not dominant enoough to avoid that. He still should be a very solid relief pitcher and at this stage of their careers a better pitcher than Fransisco. Since the Mets don’t have a dominant closer, I hope they go with all three, Parnell, Lyons and Fransisco in the closer role.
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