Week three of Bullpen Watch has arrived, and the situation is only a bit clearer than it was last week. In fact, Mets manager Terry Collins has stated that nothing is settled yet. To restate the obvious, sample sizes are small and Spring Training statistics are generally not thought to be worth much.
The lack of certainty seemed to suggest that Spring stats might take a more important role, though Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen squashed that theory by suggesting the veterans had the leg up on the young prospects with whom they are competing based on past performance.
There were no additional cuts from the roster last week that affected the bullpen competition, but Jeremy Hefner has been removed from the list since it has been confirmed that Johan Santana will start the season on the disabled list. Hefner will take his spot in the rotation. The following statistics are through 3/23 and the list is ordered by innings pitched.
| Player | THROWS | ERA | IP | HR | BB | SO | WHIP | 40-MAN? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Carson | L | 3.97 | 11.1 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1.06 | Yes |
| Josh Edgin | L | 3.38 | 10.2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 1.88 | Yes |
| Greg Burke | R | 3.48 | 10.1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 0.97 | Yes |
| Bobby Parnell | R | 2.79 | 9.2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1.14 | Yes |
| Scott Rice | L | 3.72 | 9.2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1.24 | No |
| Jeurys Familia | R | 2.89 | 9.1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 1.39 | Yes |
| Aaron Laffey | L | 0.00 | 9.0 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 1.22 | No |
| Scott Atchison | R | 2.08 | 8.2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1.04 | No |
| Brandon Lyon | R | 2.35 | 7.2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1.04 | Yes |
| LaTroy Hawkins | R | 0.00 | 5.2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1.24 | No |
| Pedro Feliciano | L | 2.08 | 4.1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1.15 | No |
Always take Spring stats with a grain of salt, they say, and that’s true. However, it’s hard to look at how the bullpen has performed this Spring and not be optimistic that it will be much better than last year. Not only are the veterans/reclamation projects/lottery tickets performing well, the youngsters are holding strong too. This could portend a strong bullpen to open the season with impressive depth waiting in the wings. Or it could just mean it’s Spring training.
Bobby Parnell is the closer, and the only reason he is still on this list is for the sake of completeness. He is not competing with anyone. He’s also the only real “lock” for the bullpen at this point, though educated guesses and reporting help in determining which players are likely to head North as well.
Common thinking seems to be that Edgin has a firm grasp on the first lefty spot and that Lyon, Hawkins, and Atchison are safe bets as well. That leaves the second lefty spot and, since Frank Francisco will start the season on the disabled list, the last righty spot up for grabs. Reporting seems to suggest that Feliciano and Burke will get these spots, with Laffey opening the season in Las Vegas as a starter. This falls in line with Collins’ insistence that he will go with age and experience from the get go.
There is certainty on the horizon, though. Under the current collective bargaining agreement, Feliciano, Hawkins, and the injured Tim Byrdak must be informed by March 26th if they have made the team. If they have not, they must either be offered $100,000 to go to the minor leagues or released.
The projected bullpen roster last week consisted of Parnell, Edgin, Lyon, Hawkins, and Atchison. There is still much uncertainty, but there is a strong chance that Feliciano and Burke take the final two spots with Familia and Carson headed to Las Vegas. The complete projected bullpen roster is as follows:
1. Parnell
2. Edgin
3. Lyon
4. Hawkins
5. Atchison
6. Feliciano
7. Burke
The inclusion of Hawkins, Atchison, and Feliciano means that there will need to be cuts from the 40-man rostersince they are all non-roster invitees.
Bullpen Watch is a short series that will be updated every Sunday until the end of spring training (or until the members of the bullpen have been solidified). Please feel free to sound off in the comments section on who you think, so far, has earned the right to be a part of the 2013 Mets bullpen.
Looks like there are only 2 battles left in the bullpen.
1. Burke vs Familia.
I’m fine with either one, though one could argue Familia should get some more bullpen seasoning in the minors. I’d probably lean Burke because of that reason.
2. Carson vs Feliciano
This is an interesting one. Carson is on the 40 man while Feliciano is not. Felicano has had good results the spring… but has had bad execution(poor fastball velo + not pitched a lot of innings). I’d go towards Carson simply because Feliciano hasn’t shown enough innings for me. Plus, it’s not like if we lose him it will be a big deal because we will have Byrdak as depth in the middle of the year.
Name, according to multiple reports, those do appear to be the two remaining spots up for grabs with the pitchers you mentioned competing for them. I agree with both of your points. Familia would be well served spending more time in AAA. Feliciano is an interesting case, because they seem determined to give him every chance to take that last spot. A couple of weeks ago I read about his diminished velocity but I haven’t head anything since. So I’m not sure if that is still a problem.
Non roster Quintinilla takes Hicks spot and Byrd takes Havens spot on the 40 man.
So who leaves the 40 man for Atchison and Hawkins? Now let’s compound the problem if you take Feliciano over Carson. Who else goes? A possible solution is to ask Pedro to go to the minors, build some arm strength and offer an opt out date if he isn’t called up. That leaves Burke and Familia. Take Burke north and let Familia season at AAA. If Burke should fail then you could always remove him from the 40 man (no other team would pick him up and he would go to the minors). Carson makes the team. Still need two roster spots for Atchison and Hawkins and that is a debate I would like to hear Brian and Dave Groverman weigh in on.
Sorry for the typo Dave Groveman. Metcents
Right. As I mentioned below, might be two players that are far enough away that another team won’t snatch them.
And just like that, Laffey was reassigned to minors camp, Hawkins has been informed that he made the team, and Feliciano has been informed that he WON’T make the roster. It’s all coming into focus.
Yep. I think the bullpen is now pretty settled. I don’t think anyone expects Familia to make the bullpen at this point, unless an injury were to occur in the next week or so.
Now it will be interesting to see who they will boot off for Hawkins and Atchison.
I’m not sure who they can outright and who would have to pass thru waivers, so this might be an easier decision than it looks. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Johan land on the 60-day to accommodate 1 spot though.
That’s a good point, Name. There are 39 players on the 40-man after Hicks was cut, but that last open spot will probably be filled by Quintanilla.
I’m not entirely sure who they would cut either. I suppose players who are a bit further away development-wise. That might be someone like Wilfredo Tovar or Cesar Puello. Maybe Germen or Robles. I’d say Havens is an excellent candidate to get the axe, too.
It’s hard to predict, though, since I have no idea who other teams would actually be interested in taking a shot on and who the Mets think will pass through waivers.
I sure hope they don’t expose Tovar – that would be a mistake. I’d do them in this order:
Havens
Germen
Puello
Same here re Tovar.
Looks like they’re trying to unload some of these prospects to clear room on the roster.