I was speaking recently to another Mets blogger, and the topic of Justin Turner came up. After being unsurprised that a sabermetrician like myself prefers Josh Satin to Turner, he said that he liked Turner because, “Justin Turner is a clutch player.”
“There are certain players who are just better in clutch situations, you can’t deny that,” another person chimed in.
Before I knew it, I was by myself debating against a dozen other people trying to make the case that player’s performance does not change in high leverage situations.
Before we go any further, let’s establish a couple of things first. Clutch performances exist. On any given night, Justin Turner can in fact come through with a big hit in a high leverage situation. So can any other player in Major League Baseball. That’s the beauty of baseball. Any given player can come through in a clutch situation on any given day. There’s just no such thing as a player that is better in the clutch than he is in any other situation.
“The correlation between past and current clutch performance is .01, with a standard deviation of .07,” observed David Grabiner in The Sabermetric Manifesto, “In other words, there isn’t a significant ability in clutch hitting; if there were, the same players would be good clutch hitters every year.”
To demonstrate this, Baseball Prospectus’ Joe Sheehan suggests picking five players at random and comparing their splits in clutch situations and seeing how wildly they fluctuate from year to year. Thanks to Fangraphs’ Clutch statistic, it is simple to do this, so let’s compare Justin Turner, Jordany Valdespin, and Derek Jeter to a player regarded as “unclutch”, Alex Rodriguez, and the best hitter in baseball, Miguel Cabrera.
| Player | 2010 Clutch | 2011 Clutch | 2012 Clutch | 2013 Clutch | Career Clutch | Playoff Clutch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Turner | 0.06 | 1.42 | 0.42 | -0.26 | 1.68 | N/A |
| Jordany Valdespin | N/A | N/A | 0.08 | -0.03 | 0.14 | N/A |
| Derek Jeter | -0.4 | 0.04 | -0.23 | N/A | 1.16 | -1.45 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 1.44 | -1.03 | -0.51 | N/A | -8.22 | -0.45 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.95 | 1.4 | -1.45 | -0.02 | -1.5 | 0.19 |
A few things jump out at you right away:
1. Turner was in fact a great performer in clutch situations in 2011, but hasn’t been nearly as good the last two seasons.
2. The wild variation in Cabrera and Rodriguez’s clutch scores the past few years.
3. Rodriguez has been better in clutch playoff situations than Jeter.
4. Valdespin has been average in clutch situations.
What this all tells us is that the perceived “clutchness” of a player is something that is largely determined by the media. It makes for a nice story that a player can kick it into another gear in high leverage situations, and as fans, we eat it up. We like the notion that a player can reach down inside himself and summon a little extra something to come through because he has “the will to win.”
But it’s just not true, and deep down inside we all know it, but we like to believe anyway.
It’s not just the statistics that prove it. If we strip our biases and watch the games objectively, we’ll see Derek Jeter or Justin Turner not come through in the clutch, and we’ll see guys who are “unclutch” come through in the same scenarios.
Therein lies the beauty of baseball; any given player can do something extraordinary on any given day.
Who could ask for more than that?
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Joe, since I’m not a sabermetrician I’ve got a question for those more statistically adroit. Is there a way of using BABIP to correlate with “clutch” hitting? My thought is that you can’t come through in the clutch if you are striking out. A higher BABIP, to my simplistic thinking, should translate into a better “clutch” hitter.
The Mets have 17 players this year to get at least 50 PA. Here are the top five by FanGraphs clutch score, with their rank in BABIP in parentheses:
Murphy (5th)
Nieuwenhuis (17th)
Baxter (8th)
Tejada (11th)
Buck (12th)
Seems pretty random to me
Thanks, Brian. Is 50 PA an adequate sample?
Obviously bigger is better but you look at Murphy (334) and Buck (273) and those are significantly bigger.
Let’s go back to 2012. Mets had 14 players get 150 PA – 3X bigger than our previous minimum. Here are the top five clutch guys and their BABIP rank in parentheses:
Nieuwenhuis (1st)
Hairston (10th)
Davis (13th)
Thole (12th)
Turner (7th)
Still seems pretty random
Since BABIP is extremely vulnerable to small sample size variation (I believe it takes over 1100 PA for BABIP to stabilize) I’m not sure if that is the best metric to use in this scenario. What I’ve always contended is that players like Derek Jeter hit well in the clutch because Derek Jeter is a good hitter, not because he can kick it into another mode.
Turner is a good utility infielde/PH,nothing more.Fire Terry Collins!
Agreed, and he seems like a good clubhouse guy as well, but he should not be getting AB’s in high leverage situations on a regular basis.
I always liked Justin Turner and his OPS in 2011 and 2012 fit him in as a slightly below average NL secondbaseman. In 2013 he is being asked to be the backup corner infielder and he just doesn’t produce the power for that. His defense also removes him from seriously being considered the backup SS, which in 2013 he has been asked to be prior to his injury. Satin, on the other hand has a little bit more power than Turner and profiles as a better corner infield backup with experience at 2B. Zach Lutz has the best consistant minor league numbers of all three, yet he has always been hurt when an opportunity has presented itself on the major league level. Satin and Lutz have similar power. The Mets have plenty of 2B on the roster in Murphy,Valdespin, Young,Satin and Turner and their top position AAA prospect is Flores. Turner really doesn’t have a spot on the roster anymore and Satin (or Lutz) would be a better alternative at corner infield. They should look to trade Turner by the deadline and he does have an option left if they can’t.
Metsense—CORRECT!!! Add the fact that Valy is a LH Bat and Young is a switch (who can play 2b in a pinch)….Turner has no opportunity here…who’s the next Pie Guy?
I agree with 99% of what you said, but Lutz’s power is better than Satin’s, but Satin’s OBP is better than Lutz’s.
Watching Satin run, doesn’t he seem to … “lumber”? I have a hard time seeing that body move to his left or right to make a play, or have the physical dexterity around the bag for a DP.
Boy, he’s locked in at the plate right now though. Would you make the long term commitment to a guy that will never hit more than 10 HR at 1B, that starts his career at 28, and fields … possibly just average for his position?
At best he’s … Wally Joyner without so much power? Rod Carew that doesn’t hit for as good an average? Looking at 1B in 2012 with less than 10 HR you have Yonder Alonso and Jordan Pacheco. I think the latter one is a dangerous comp for Satin. (starts career late, has no real power, hits 300, regresses seriously in next year).
Daric Barton. That’s the comp for Josh Satin … good fielder (apparently. I wouldn’t have thought it but the metrics support this), high OBP, lower ISO for a 1B.
Barton’s 2010 season (4.8 WAR) wasn’t something he could replicate, and it happened at his age 24 season.
I’m not a fan of Turner, but I’m pretty sure that’s because since he’s been on the Mets he’s played a larger role for the team than he should have simply because of how awful the team has been the last few seasons. And maybe it has a little bit to do with this mythical “clutch” attribute that is always applied to him.
Yes. The perception that he is a ‘clutch player’ has absolutely played a role in the frequency of his usage over the past few seasons, especially in late inning high leverage situations.