On May 29th, the concept of the Terrible Trio was introduced. In the previous 22 games, John Buck, Ike Davis and Ruben Tejada combined to go 32-217 (.147) and the Mets went 8-14. They only had that many wins thanks to some outstanding pitching efforts. In the eight wins, the Mets scored 24 runs.
That night, Tejada was injured and his anemic bat went out of the lineup. The Mets finally sent Davis down after an 0-3 night on June 9th. And Terry Collins finally started giving Buck some time off, even if he continues to play him way too much. Since May 30th, Anthony Recker has eight starts and the Mets are 6-2. And as pointed out to me in the Game Chatter last night, not one of those starts has come with Matt Harvey on the mound
Perhaps you will be amazed to hear this but once the manager stopped writing in three players into the lineup on a daily basis who hit like pitchers, the offense improved! This improvement was due to some very necessary “addition by subtraction,” combined with some fortuitous BABIP luck.
Omar Quintanilla replaced Tejada at shortstop and has played nearly every day. In the process, the Mets went from having one of the worst offensive shortstops in the majors to one that ranks in the top half. Among the 43 shortstops to amass at least 100 PA this season, Tejada’s .529 OPS ranked 40th. Meanwhile, Quintanilla’s ranks 13th – ahead of more-heralded players like Jimmy Rollins and Alexei Ramirez – and he’s doing it with a .300 BABIP.
The improvement at first base is a bit tougher to identify, if only because Collins wasted a week starting Jordany Valdespin. Eventually he made the extremely obvious decision to move Lucas Duda to first base. In five games at his natural position, Duda put up a .357/.550/.429 line before getting hurt. Since then Josh Satin has logged the majority of time at the position. In 10 games at first base, Satin has hit the cover off the ball, with a .389/.511/.556 triple slash line.
Duda’s initial game at first base came on June 17th. Since that point, the Mets are 10-6. Previously they were 14 games under .500 at 25-39. The Terrible Trio were hurting the Mets with their offensive ineptitude and Duda was hurting them with his atrocious outfield defense. Take multiple rotten hitters and one lousy defender out of the lineup and suddenly the Mets are playing at a .625 clip, one that would produce 101 wins over a full season.
The Mets have also been bolstered with the addition of Eric Young Jr. In 13 games, Young has a .321/.371/.429 line thanks to a .367 BABIP. Obviously it’s not going to last but it sure has been fun while it has. Even if he regresses all the way to his lifetime mark of a .680 OPS, that’s still 180 points higher than what Davis gave the Mets this year and he’s a pretty substantial upgrade defensively over Duda out in left field.
There has been another offensive improvement in the lineup recently and that’s with the production of Juan Lagares in center field. This year, Mets center fielders have combined for a .601 OPS, the worst mark in the National League, which sees an average .714 OPS from the position. In his first 25 games, Lagares had a .430 OPS. But in his last 21 games, covering 80 PA, Lagares has a .701 OPS, which is a Ruthian figure for the 2013 Mets.
If you are used to getting the worst production in the league, to jump to near average is a massive improvement. Lagares’ hitting has undoubtedly helped the Mets and combined with his defensive contributions, he has played a big role in the recent strong play by the club. His proponents will point out how the improvement came with more consistent playing time. The killjoys in the crowd will point out that it took a .373 BABIP to produce these numbers.
The question becomes how the Mets continue to put up strong offensive numbers. Since moving Duda to first base, the Mets have scored 72 runs for an average of 4.5 runs per game. In May, when the Terrible Trio was playing every day, the Mets averaged 3.3 runs per game. In the same span, the Mets have allowed just 57 runs, with 13 of those coming in one game.
That 15-run advantage works out to a .615 Pythagorean record or just slightly worse than the Mets’ actual record of .625 in the span. What the Mets have been doing since improving their offense and defense has not been a complete fluke and it should not be treated that way by Collins and Sandy Alderson.
There’s no reason to rush to reinsert Davis and Tejada into the starting lineup. There’s no reason to continue to play Buck six times a week. And there’s no reason to put Duda back out in left field.
When everyone is healthy, my preference would be to have Duda, Murphy, Wright, Quintanilla, Young, Lagares and Byrd as the nominal starters, with Satin, Tejada, Brown and Nieuwenhuis as the reserves. Buck should play 3-4 times a week, with Recker getting at least two weekly starts, more if his hitting demands it.
Shortstop should be a straight platoon, while Satin plays against every lefty, although he should see time at all of the remaining three infield positions. Yes, it’s okay to give David Wright a day or two off each month. And the same goes for Marlon Byrd, too.
That would make Davis, Justin Turner and Valdespin as the odd men out. It should be noted that two of those three have been absent during the recent 16-game stretch of improved play, while Valdespin is 1-for-11 in that span. It’s been said that Davis will not be a platoon player when he gets recalled. In that case, here’s hoping he enjoys the rest of the summer in steamy Las Vegas.
Not that it would matter much because it’s the 5th OF spot, but i’d rather have pinch hitter extrodinaire Baxter over Niewenhuis.
As I said the other day regarding catching … you don’t have to go from a 429 OPS all the way to an 825 OPS at catcher. It means a lot just to get to 625. Enter a homerun and rbi single by Recker.
Its amazing what happens when you put guys in a position to win. Play a CF in CF. Put the LF in LF. Get the 1B to play 1B and the 2B to play 2B. I’m reminded of a favorite series of lines …
Skip: What’s our record?
Larry: 8 and 16
Skip: 8. And 16 … how’d we ever win 8
Larry: It’s a miracle.
Skip: It’s a miracle. This is a simple game. You throw the ball. You hit the ball. You catch the ball.
Somebody tell TC it’s a simple game. Play people where they can catch the ball. Play people that can hit the ball. Play pitchers that can throw the ball.
I agree with everthing stated and would not change a word.
Young may be playing over his head but he did have a 110 OPS + in 2012 and is 28 yoa so it is possible to see only a slight regression. Young with his versatilty and team contol until 2017 will be a very good 4th OF / bu 2b in 2014 seeing plenty of playing time. He is what the Mets hoped JV1 would evolve into. JV1 needs to play SS at AAA if he has any future value to the team. Otherwise, he is obsolete. Turner, although a major league caliber player, does not fit on the roster anymore.
Would a Davis plus Turner land us a Cespedes or Reddick from Oakland? Upgrade to Murphy and expand the package. 1b and 2b are needs in Oakland.
I don’t see any way the A’s trade Cespedes unless they are overwhelmed.
Great article! I’m a Mets observer who’s rooting like hell for Lagares’ bat to develop. His centerfield play reminds me of Gary Maddox and Andruw Jones; he’s that good. Even if he’s no better than .250-.260, his defense will be worth a couple of wins a year. I saw Satin play second base for Binghamton in 2011. His bat looked major league ready then. At 28, he’s no longer a prospect, but he’s an upgrade over Justin Turner and will be a valuable piece moving forward.
I watch Satin on the bases and can’t imagine him having the lateral speed to play second or the physical dexterity to turn 2.
Did anything you saw in Bing show differently?
I was wondering if anyone else notice how an upgrade from terrible to not terrible made us competitive. Imagine what could happen if we had a few great position players to pair with that pitching staff…
While the Mets recent nice play is encouraging, it is obvious that this next month is going to be about a fire sale. The only question is who goes and what can we get back. The players of value will be Parnell, Murphy, Byrd and due to their prior track record, maybe Lyon, Marcum and Hawkins. I don’t see Murphy getting traded because they don’t have an answer at 2B and he is still relatively affordable and able to assume 1B (with Flores at 2B) in case Davis and/or Duda suck too much next season.
We’ve seen enough of these young players to realize who is going to work out and who won’t. There is only so many at bats that can be given to each player auditioning for a spot next year because there is a large number of questionable players. Honestly, unless it is in Las Vegas as insurance for injuries, I don’t see how any of Mike Baxter, Kirk Niewenhuis and Jordany Valdespin are apart of the Mets future. Matt den Dekker will probably be added to that list when we see he’s optomistically another Niewenhuis at the plate. And even if den Dekker is great defensively, Lagares is too. Also, it’s hard to imagine Tejada being apart of it either.
As always, Duda is a maybe. But if he can’t stay healthy, how do we assess? He’s only going to stay because it is too expensive replacing 3 OF’s, they won’t get much back for him and he’s insurance to Ike. Marlon Byrd can’t be expected to be the Mets top or second best OF producing hitter, with Duda, Young Jr. or Lagares as the 3rd OF, if they want to win.
They can fill out next year’s bench with Buck (if he re-signs), Lagares, Young Jr. and two of Satin, Turner and Lutz. They need to sign or trade for two OF’s.
With the 2014 rotation looking like it will be Harvey/Niese/Wheeler/Montero/Hefner and Syndegaard expected for 2015, Gee and Mejia can serve as trade bait, even if they aren’t big pieces, because they aren’t going to work out in the bullpen.
I’m a Mets fan, which is the same as saying “I’m a pessimist”.
I see Ike being brought back to Queens without ever getting to the point where he’s playing great in AAA.
I see Duda being returned to the outfield, where he looks about as comfortable as a tightrope walker with a rock in his shoe.
I see John Buck striking out in every game from now to the end of the season.
I see Hairy Man Turner coming back and bringing his tired old pie act with him.
I see Legares, Recker, Brown and “Brows” Satin rotting on the pine or banished back to Vegas.
I want to work in the line “I see dead people” and I have a few ideas, but I don’t want to end up being arrested and held in jail in lieu of $500,000 bond like that gamer kid in Texas.
I hope I’m wrong about all this, or at least about part of this. The last couple of weeks it’s actually been fun again to watch the games, and the fill-in players have been a substantial piece of the difference. Maybe it’s a bubble that’s bound to burst, but can’t we wait for it to pop before we go back to what we had before?
I agree – the games have been fun lately. It’s been a complete 180 from May and early June where it was a chore to watch them play. Even the extra inning game, I felt like falling a run behind wasn’t the end of the world.
You know, they’re only three games behind the Phillies…
Pretty much agreed with what you wrote Brian only it’s not fair to compare Ike’s OPS to Eric Young’s since they play different positions. Duda reminds me of Adam Dunn. Can give you 30 home runs, 90 RBI’S a decent OBP. Though his potential to strike out 200 plus times in a season is a huge drawback. Why is Met management so concerned about hurting Ike’s feelings? What does he have on the Wilpons that the organization continues to coddle him? Platoon him with Satin until he matures and understands that his previous effort and attitude are not acceptable. The Mets lose whatever leverage they could of applied by telling Ike he has a place here waiting for him.