Much has been said about the regression of the Mets’ “core” this season, both on Mets360 and in Mets commentary in general, and with good reason. Ike Davis has once again opened the season in a “slump” so bad that mere words can no longer describe it. The word “slump” doesn’t even apply anymore, truth be told. Ruben Tejada, like Davis, played his way to a demotion. Lucas Duda was underwhelming before his injury, though again miscast as an outfielder. Jonathan Niese wasn’t the same pitcher he was last year, though injury may have played a large role there. Then again, Mets fans don’t need to be reminded of all that went wrong this year. All of this is to say: where do we go from here?
Next season was supposed to be the year that the Mets really started pushing towards contention. Although Mets GM Sandy Alderson has shied away from such claims recently, he’s made it very clear that he and his front office intend to make major upgrades to the roster between now and next season. The areas of improvement were clear before the start of the 2013 season: the outfield was a disaster and the bullpen was in shambles. Now, however, the only position with any kind of clarity outside of the rotation is third base.
Alderson has stated that he envisions the next contending Mets team built on solid pitching and role players supplementing two or three impact bats. Basically, the goal is a team built in the mold of the recent championship Giants teams. That’s all well and good until you realize that at the All-Star break in 2013 the Mets had exactly one impact bat in David Wright and a collection of sub-par role players. To be clear, the definition of “role player” here is a solid/average regular player that when added to the mix make the whole team better. Daniel Murphy may have played himself out of the solid role player discussion, though I wouldn’t necessarily count him out moving forward. In fact, even with his reduced production he’s still in the middle of the pack both offensively and defensively among major league second basemen this year. The Mets may have also added a nice one in Eric Young Jr., but it remains to be seen if he can sustain his current production. Everyone else on the roster is either not part of the team’s future, a solid bench piece, or just relatively bad at baseball at the major league level.
So where does Alderson and his team upgrade and when do they do it? Alderson has stated recently that the team can only evaluate players for so long before moving on, which is a good sign for Mets fans wanting upgrades. But the team has also been tempering expectations for the trade deadline by stating big moves might not get done until the off-season, which may be good in the long-term but frustrating in the short-term. At the very least, and if you consider Murphy the second basemen moving forward and Young as a starting outfielder, the team will need at least two outfielders, a shortstop, and a first baseman. It remains to be seen whether Travis d’Arnaud is the future at catcher, too.
That’s a lot of work for a team with little of value on the major league roster. It’s understandable that the team probably doesn’t want to give up too much of their young pitching in any trade scenario, but you have to give something to get something. You trade from a position of strength to shore up the weak parts of the roster, and right now the Mets have a plethora of young pitching in their system that many teams seem to covet. Of course, the trick is to know which ones to let go and which ones to keep.
There is a growing sentiment that the Mets are turning or have turned a corner towards contention based on their young pitching core. Whether or not you agree with that, the fact of the matter is that unless d’Arnaud, Wilmer Flores, and Cesar Puello burst onto the scene this summer or the Mets really open up the purse strings this winter, contention next year is only a pipe dream unless positional upgrades are made via trades at the deadline or in the off-season. Alderson has his work cut out for him and has set major expectations for major upgrades with his statements. Mets fans wait with bated breath.
The sample sizes are small, but they exist.
You have a first baseman that is flashing a 1000 OPS over what is approaching 100 plate appearances.
You have a great fielding CFer that is reaching an 800 OPS over his last 106 plate appearances.
You have a RFer that is well above 800.
Blow the negativity out if you’d like, but those are the numbers and you can’t deny them. Regression to a mean? Maybe one will happen. And maybe Lucas Duda will return to hit 30 HR.
We have a top notch bullpen, one of the best rotations in baseball, an 8 WAR 3B and some significant players developing not in some minor league role but right before our eyes. Let’s try to make the playoffs THIS YEAR, and let next year’s schedule play out later.
Small samples? Yes.
Thanks for commenting, Jerry! It’s really unfortunate that I wrote something so negative after an awesome Harvey day win, but it is what it is.
Josh Satin is playing out of his mind right now, but remember when we thought Ike Davis was going to be the Mets star first baseman of the future? I don’t wish to take away from what he’s been doing this year, because I think the Mets waited WAY too long to give him a consistent shot on the major league roster, but we shouldn’t make the 28 year-old out to be more than the solid bench player that he is. Maybe he’ll prove to be more than that, but I wouldn’t count on it. He’s a valuable piece, either way.
I was a big supporter of Lagares since his days of BABIPing his way onto prospect hot sheets, and I hope that he continues to improve. If he can continue to refine his bat, then he most certainly could hold down the fort at CF mostly everyday. He still has to keep doing what he’s doing, though.
And Marlon Byrd, if he actually is on the 2014 squad for some reason, will certainly not be at the bargain bin price they got him for this season. Maybe he actually does have a few years left in him, but I wouldn’t count the future on it.
All that being said, I realize you said THIS year, and I absolutely agree. I’d love for the team to make a playoff push this year as mush as anybody, but if you can improve your team for the next few years by sacrificing a long-shot playoff birth you always have to take that route IMO. Besides,they’d get the most in a trade by trading their minor-league pitching for established players, not the other way around.
I also have a thought. We all love winning, but we want to ship out Parnell for prospects, that may or not pan out. We have a lot of prospects. Unless someone wants to offer the type of prospect we don’t have, I agree that we can try to go for the wins. Byrd, Aardsma, Hawkins, and Murphy for available for packaging for a better prospect, like Pederson.
For what it’s worth, I wouldn’t trade Parnell unless they are blown away with the return, or if he’s part of a larger package. I feel as though the Mets best shot at a significant upgrade is through their minor league pitching depth rather than trading any of the major league pieces.
Lucas Duda
2012: .718 OPS and an average of 1 HR every 26.7 ABs
2013: .791 OPS and an average of 1 HR every 20.5 ABs
How is this regression? This is a step forward, one that will look even better with a normal BABIP and something other than horrible results with RISP, which we know is not really indicative of any true skill.
And there’s also the *possibility* of improved production if he gets to play his natural position of 1B. Duda’s lifetime numbers when he plays first — .310/.397/.481
Regression as it applies to the core, but sure we can just discuss Duda specifically. In the somewhat smallish sample size in 2013 he did appear to be improving at the plate. That’s really a testament to his hard work there. Unfortunately, the Mets keep plopping him in the OF. There, he will continue to have negative value to the team, and we can see the difference having good defenders out there makes.
Now having him at 1B? I’m all aboard with that. Hopefully the Mets will finally come around and actually start playing him there regularly and stop the silly OF experiment.
I’m with brian on this one. put duda back at 1st base and i’m betting his numbers rise. personally, my belief is the mets brought back ike in the hopes that he would start hitting so they would be able to package him in a trade. i like the way this team has been looking the past month or so, and i agree with jerry, let’s try to make the playoffs this year, which is not as impossible as it may look on paper. it may sound crazy, but this upcoming 4 game series vs the braves is our 2013 season. we take 3 of 4, or by some miracle, sweep, we are in contention.
i don’t see SA making any major moves until after the braves series. and since TC plans on playing ike for this series, if he goes 1 for 25, i say trade him for my 80 yr old ex mother in law, as i’d have more confidence seeing her at the plate than ike.
Problem for the Mets is that the free agent market this winter is very limited for quality outfielders to Ellsbury or Shin Choo. The Phillies, Red Sox’s, Braves, Reds and Giants are well below the salary cap and all teams will receive in addition 50 million dollars in revenue from the new television contract which begins in 2014. I’ve said earlier that Puello is going to be suspended by the commissioner’s office for his involvement in the Biogenesis Scandal. Is he protected by the Players Association? If not then he’ll be suspended as soon as the investigation comes to its conclusion. Do you see Puello in the Mets future? Or do you trade him? Then again you’ll be trading him when his value is low not high. Sign Ellsbury. Move Young to second. I can’t give up on Ike just yet. Trade Duda and Murphy to an American League team where they could both DH and play the field on occasion. Trade Tejada and Parnell for Garcia with Detroit if Peralta gets suspended this year. I think that’s why SA is in no hurry to make a deal and the longer he waits the more desperate teams will become at the trading deadline.
As I mentioned below, because of the FA market for outfielders this year the Mets best bet may be to make a run at trading for a quality OF. Of course, that requires the other team to play ball as well.
Puello is getting the attention of prospect watchers recently. He’s always had the tools, but now he seems to be consistently putting it all together. He also appears to be making good progress in his plate discipline/walks, as that was (probably) the primary thing holding his promotion to AAA back. In fact, John Sickels at Minor League Ball wrote today that if Puello continues at this pace he may end up in his top 50 at the end of the year. His potential involvement in the Biogenesis scandal could really throw a wrench in all that, though. And with Braun going down today, we may know sooner rather than later…
The Mets may have turned the corner for the 2013 season and may play .500 ball the rest of the way but the holes are still glaring for 2014. The only impact bat is Wright. Byrd is playing as an impact bat and I would like to see him back. Even if he regresses to just average in 2014, his contribution should be rewarded even at age 36. Eric Young Jr as a starting 2B may be a key giving the team a good offensive player for a weaker offensive position. It would also free up LF for another impact bat aquisition and add Murphy and Flores as trade chips. Duda/Satin at 1B as role players. SS would still need an upgrade as would CF. Is d’Arnaud is the key? Is he going to be the 3rd impact bat?
For the Mets to turn the corner in 2014 it will be on the strength of their starting pitching and how fast it develops.
I’m not sure why everyone is anxious to trade Murphy. Sure he’s no all-star, but he plays decent defense and can get on base with line drive power at a premium position. If you ditch Murph, you’d better have a clear upgrade in mind.
Why are you so down on TDA? Everyone in baseball has raved about him and he’s on the verge of returning from a fluke injury.
The focus has to be 2014, and if it happens to help 2013, so be it. Outside of converting him back into a pitcher, Davis needs to be off this team ASAP. Satin is already making first base a question mark, especially with Duda. Lucas has more power, can take a walk and is less awful defensively at first, but Satin is even better at getting on base, plays even less worse defense and needs a few at bats to really get going. I’d keep Josh at this point and try to trade Duda, keeping him as a backup/power bat if no one wants him.
I love what Byrd has done, but I really hope Sandy Alderson is reaching out to Rick Hahn about Alex Rios, and maybe Alexi Ramirez. Rios is younger with a higher potential and can stick around for several more years. Young has to stay in the lineup, and left field seems just fine unless Alderson finds a serious hitter. Juan Lagares isn’t walking at all, but his average is getting respectable and I can’t say enough about his defense.
Mike, I’m not down on TDA at all. He should at the least be a better than average catcher but will he be an impact bat? He hasn’t played a game yet so that would be a lofty expectation. The Mets have 4 second baseman on their active roster and Murphy is by far the best of the 4 and the most likely to bring in a legitimate player to fill another hole. Young to second is a downgrade but the upgrade in what they get for Murphy may be a net gain for the team.
On the telecast Darling stated Rios was benched by Ventura for not running out a ball and he noticed a lack of effort also. He summed it up by alluding to a cancer in the clubhouse. That took me off the Rios bandwagon.
I am a stats guy and it pains me to see an article that is based on perception rather than reality.
None of the Met guys (other than Wright and Harvey) are household names. But that doesn’t mean they haven’t been playing well this year! The Mets are 5th, yes 5th!, in runs per game in the NL. Yes, this group of “one impact bat plus a collection the bunch sub-par role players” are one of the top offenses in baseball. But they get no respect because they aren’t sexy names like Upton, or Molina, or Stanton.
And contrary to popular belief, the Giants were not a team based entirely around pitching with no offense. They were 6th in runs scored and 5th in ERA last season.
So if a little research could be done, we can get rid of our incorrect assumptions such as
-JV being a “great” pinch hitter
-This team having “no bullpen”
-Scott Rice being worthy of a roster spot
and of course: this team having no offense.
Wow!!! had i been in a fight with Name about my perceived ”mets stats”, i’d be flat on my back right now as the ref counted to ten. 5th in runs per game?? admittedly, i didn’t have a clue. and i’ve already read enough of your post to know better than to bother checking. that being said, i’d like to address your end comment on ”incorrect assumptions”
1. i’m sure i’ll look stupid for this question, but who is JV???
2. totally agree. mets have one of the better bullpens in the NL
3. i’m probably alone on this, but i like scott rice. perhaps if TC stopped bringing him in only when there are 37 men on base, his era might look better.
4. you win. ( see above )
JV = Jordany Valdespin (some people even use JV1 because he wears #1). But you don’t need not to remember that name or abbreviation any longer because i highly doubt we’ll ever see him again after this:
http://metsblog.com/metsblog/jordany-valdespin-threw-a-tantrum-saturday-night-upon-learning-of-his-demotion/
I will quickly give you his PH stats too:
2013: 35 PA, .103 BA, 1 HR, 5 RBI
2012: 47 PA, .214 BA, 5 HR, 10 RBI
As for Scott Rice, you might want to take a look at a few of the articles and tidbits Brian has written about him and then make a decision.
Here are just two links about Rice that were written earlier this year.
ah, valdespin. yep, i read that article the day after and quite frankly, wasn’t surprised. his showboating getting him beaned w/o the team responding back told me all i needed to know of what his teammates thought of him. not sure who’d want him, but i hope he gets packaged in a trade. thanks for the links to brian’s articles. i read both, but remain stubborn on rice. my feelings are that he’s more often than not, been misused by TC. i like TC, but i do question some of his decisions, especially when it comes to pitching.
Hi, Name. Thanks for reading and commenting!
The article didn’t state that the Giants were based on pitching with no offense. It says “built on solid pitching and role players supplementing two or three impact bats.” Take a look at the 2010 and 2012 WS champ Giants rosters. The only similarity between those two teams is their solid pitching, Posey, and Sandoval. The team did an excellent job of supplementing that with solid role players. That was my point. Of course you can’t win with no offense.
If we’re going to talk stats, let’s get the whole picture here. Yes, they’re fifth in runs per game in the NL. That’s pretty amazing, actually, but misleading. Why are they, despite their runs per game, in fourth place and double-digits behind in both the division and WC? Because they are 14th in BA, 12th in OBP, 14th in SLG, and 12th in OPS+.
Their recent good play is outstanding and, in fact, they’ve scored roughly 28% of their total runs this season in their last 22 games. So that helps to skew their total/per game. Still, their recent success is not to be minimized. It’s entirely possible that they’ve finally found a mix of players that can sustain a high level of play through the end of the season. I’m just not ready to believe that yet. I sure hope that’s the case, though.
Thanks again!
I agree that they’re secondary stats don’t support them scoring this many runs, but what has happened has happened and you can’t discount the fact that they have scored this many runs. It may not happen in the future but you have to give them credit for what they have done in the past.
“Why are they, despite their runs per game, in fourth place and double-digits behind in both the division and WC?”
It is because the pitching has also been misleading and is not as dandy as it seems. Yes, we have a good future pipeline of pitching (or so it appears), but in the present it really hasn’t been as good as people think. Overall, our pitching is 9th in the league and our SP(who many have think are the ones who are “carrying” us) are only 7th in the league.
In the end it’s all about scoring more runs than you allow, which the Mets haven’t done this year and the reason why they have the record they do.
Turning a corner…I would say its more like how a supertanker ship turns a corner, not a Ferrari. In one, the corner is cone before you knew you took it; in the other the corner is so round you cant even perceive there is a corner, and turning it takes time and effort. I believe the Mets are in the supertanker category of turning the corner.
I am an optimist when it comes to the Mets. Every spring I daydream about that start that catapults them into prominence. More often than not, I am disapointed. But every year I come back for more. I’ve written before that I see the ’83 version with a little bit of ’84 mixed in( take a bow Matt Harvey). The Mets can score. Only 3 shutouts. Arizona,leads the majors with 2. No matter how much the opposition scores, the Mets don’t give up. Look at the Philly game coming out of the break. Down 11-0, they were only a hit or two from the greatest comeback in team history. The Phils never recovered in the series. Once up 11 to 0, the Mets outscored them 18 to 6 the rest of the way. I got to listen to the Philly announcers (black out restrictions here) and once the Mets scored off of Lee, they knew they were done. The Mets are only 1 or 2 players away. Turning the corner, yes, and the past 4 years is starting to look smaller and smaller every day.
After yesterday’s win, the Mets are now 10 of their last 16; a 620 winning percentage. That is not an aberration. They are 19 of 31, which plays out to a 613 winning percentage. They’ve played on the road, and at home; against basement dwellers, hot teams and cold teams.
They have 68 games left. There is no reason for me to think that the games before mid June were any more important than these games. In fact, there is every reason for me to believe we have entered a new paradigm. The Phillies started Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Kyle Kendrick and we hung 18 runs on them (and 37 in the last six). We scored against SF, and Arizona. Played Pitt tough.
68 games * .62 is 42 wins, + 41 puts the Mets at 83 wins. That places the Mets within *FOUR* games of a wild card spot.
LGM. Maybe surprise some people and turn the Mets into buyers instead of sellers.
I love the optimism JG, but I still fear the small numbers matter. Last year between 5 May and 3 June the Mets were 18-10. At a .640 winning clip, it was cause for huge optimism for a competitive year. It seems it would be a great year for the Amazin’s to find continued magic while the NL East continues to stink up the place. Im just afraid that a little cooling off of Byrd and EY, and perhaps another injury to deal with could quite quickly sink us. Once thing is for sure, we have a stedy diet of Citi Field and NL East opponents, neither of which we seem to do well against…if this holds, then we could see some real magic.
True enough, injuries can play a role. But look at Atlanta’s lineup. They are playing through a bunch of injuries, and I think the difference between us and them is that we still have some organizational depth to get by.
In the words of Jim Carrey … “so you’re saying I’ve got a shot” …
I love it. Although my mind says not likely, my heart bleeds for making a go this year.
Here’s a few scenarios showing what the Mets have to do in order to beat the Braves (with a lot of assumptions)
1) Since going 12-1 to start the season, the Braves have since gone 43-42, a .500 pace. If I extrapolate that to the end of the season they will finish 87-75. To catch them the Mets will have to play 44-24(.647) the rest of the way.
2)If the Mets sweep the Braves this series and then the Braves play .500 the rest of the way, they will finish with 85-77. To catch them the Mets will have to play 42-26(.617) the rest of the way.
3)Same as scenario #2 plus the Mets take 3/4 from the Nats. The Mets have to play 35-25(.583) the rest of the way.
So yea, it’s vitally important that we take 7/8 from the Braves/nats this week in order to have a legimate chance. And if the Braves ever get their act together and play above .500, they’re going to run away with the division.
Yeah … I’d say 5 wins is the absolute minimum we need in the next 8 just to stay alive for playoff hunt, but when it gets right down to it …
You can’t get to first lest you get to second before that, and you gotta go through third to get to second. Let’s pass the Phillies and so we can put an eyeball on the Nats.
LGM. LGM. LGM.
Nice Article!
Question,
How much money do you think the Mets would need to invest to succeed in 2014?
Well that’s obviously a tough question. Reports suggest that the Mets will have roughly $35-$45 million to spend this off-season. That’s with a rough figure of $55 million in commitments for 2014 and a ceiling of $100 millionish total. Alderson has hinted that the Mets will be leaning towards the mid-tier free agents, so no Canos here (and maybe no Choo). Of course, we’ve all seen how seemingly mid-tier free agents fetch elite-level contracts simply because of the market.
I would think the best course of action, though, would be to try their damnedest to take on the salary of a younger, under control player like a Carlos Gonzalez by trading prospects. He’s a ridiculous bargain right now, but his salary shoots up to $20 in the final year of his contract in 2017.
All signs point to Alderson being the one with the keys here with regard to increasing the payroll. It depends on whether or not you believe that, of course. It’s very possible that Alderson doesn’t take the Mets from 55 to 100 in one off-season, too.
So the short, non-answer to your question is basically: whatever makes sense. 🙂
As of today the Mets are 1, yes 1, game behind the Phils and Nats in the loss column. And only 8 behind the Braves. With the Bravo outfielders dropping like flies(no pun intended) does it really look like ’73 all over. And how ironic on the 40th anniversary of Yogi Berra’s improbable run. Ya gotta believe(thanks Tug).
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