All the talk is that the Mets are turning a corner as a franchise, with hopes that 2014 will be the year they contend once again for an October berth. This year we have seen glimpses of this with the arrival of Zack Wheeler, the emergence of Juan Lagares/Dillon Gee/Jeremy Hefner and the great season of Marlon Byrd.
But with all of this happening, the 2013 Winter Meetings are still the most important part of this rebuild. All of the progress could be lost if Sandy Alderson doesn’t make some sort of move to help the 2014 Mets. With that being months away, here are five things that Alderson will have to decide at those meetings:
1) If Alderson is going to acquire a big outfield bat, which one will it be and what prospects will he be more willing to trade?
All the talk has been about Alderson getting a guy like Carlos Gonzalez or a Giancarlo Stanton this off-season to really help the lineup come 2014. But will he want to do that? He will have more money to play with, but is he ready to deal top prospects? That will be put to the test. It seems that Cargo is more likely to be a Met than Stanton and a package seems to have to include Montero, either Flores/Murphy or someone else to get a guy of that caliber back.
2) Will Alderson spend money on a FA outfielder?
This talk of a trade for a top-tier outfielder isn’t the only way the Mets can fix their lineup problems. Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo are two of the names that have been thrown around as possible targets for the Mets. It might be the better route, as the Mets want to move their top prospects in the best possible deal. And, with money to spend Alderson might want to invest some of it now.
3) What will the 2014 starting rotation look like?
The focus has been put on fix the lineup for 2014, but Sandy Alderson and whoever the Mets manager is in 2014 will have to decide on the 2014 rotation. The Mets have a lot of starting pitchers who can be in the rotation. It is a good problem to have for this team. But the rest of this season they need to evaluate who they want in the 2014 rotation and who they want to use as trade bait. If I was in charge, this is my 2014 rotation: Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Montero, Gee with Noah Syndergaard as a mid to late season call up. Don’t overlook the rotation as an easy thing to put together; it will be a huge part of this team’s success.
4) Are Ike Davis and Ruben Tejada apart of the future?
The Mets, as an organization need to decide what the future holds at SS and 1B. If they feel Ike Davis can turn it around and be a valuable asset then he should remain the first baseman. The sense is that inside the organization, that view is fading and other options are being explored. Wilmer Flores and Josh Satin are two in house options for first base going forward. The same thing goes for SS and Ruben Tejada. The market isn’t very open for a top-tier SS, so Alderson will need to get creative. But this is the off-season where these decisions need to be made.
5) If a team calls for Bobby Parnell, do the Mets bite?
It seems that Bobby Parnell will remain a Met throughout the remainder of this season (unless a team wants to overpay for him), but that doesn’t rule out an off-season trade. Parnell has had a good 2013 season and as emerged as the closer everybody wanted him to be. Now the question is, do the Mets sell high on him or hold to him and build the bullpen around him? Alderson will pull the trigger if the deal is right and can help the Mets both now and in the future. Odds are, no team will want to deal what the Mets want for Parnell and he stays the closer. My opinion on the matter is that Parnell should be the closer and the guy that the Mets build around. He’s young and has the makeup to be a good closer for the future.
These are only five questions that the Mets front office will have to answer and make decisions on. More will arise and with the drama and chaos that occurs at the winter meetings, anything can happen. The 2013 offseason is one that will go down in the record books as the turn-around of the Mets or a missed opportunity. For the sake of the diehards, it better be the turn around. Either way, all of us will be glued to our TVs, wanting to see what the Mets do.
Good Stuff. But the Mets will not trot out 5 young starting pitchers in 2014. They will sign / acquire one veteran to eat innings and mentor the young guys.
It honestly something not talked about too much. All the focus is on the lineup, but the rotation does need to be squared away.
If it were up to me…
Mets Lineup:
1. Eric Young Jr. (LF)
2. Shin-Soo Choo (RF) (Free Agent)
3. David Wright (3B)
4. Ike Davis (1B)
5. Wilmer Flores (2B)
6. Joc Pederson (CF) (Trade Daniel Murphy)
7. Travis d’Arnaud (C)
8. Chris Owings (SS) (Trade Dillon Gee)
Mets Rotation:
1. Matt Harvey
2. Jon Niese
3. Zack Wheeler
4. Jeremy Hefner
5. Jacob deGrom
Reserve: Carlos Torres
AAA: Rafael Montero
AAA: Noah Syndergaard
Mets Bullpen:
CL: Bobby Parnell
SU: David Aardsma (Free Agent)
SU: Jack Leathersich
MR: Jeurys Familia
MR: Josh Edgin
MR: Kameron Loe (Free Agent)
LR: Carlos Torres
I like it. It’s got pizazz…
You really see Pederson making the jump from AA, though?
Den Dekker could start the year but yeah… I do.
So what ever happened with Mejia?
If it was up to me:
Choo LF
Lagares CF
Wright 3B
Beltran RF
Kendry Morales 1B
Flores 2B
D’Arnaud C
Tejada (because we have no choice)
HarvBeast, Wheeler, Niese, Mejia, Gee (until Syndergaard is ready)
In 2 years? HarvBeast, Niese, Wheeler, Matz, Syndergaard. Mejia gets traded for OF.
1. I dont see either CarGo or Stanton. CarGo would be my choice and the Rox need pitching, but you can bet its gonna be Wheeler+Montero or Syndergaard to get him, and then some. I dont see the pitching pipeline being highly disfigured. I dont see trades working on that scale.
2. Possibly he will crack open here. With teh Red Sox just sorting out Pedroia and Ellsbury a key key figure in the Sox plans, I think he’s gonna be signed before too long. That leaves Choo as an obvious target, but its gonna cost a fortune. Any interest in seeing Beltran back for a couple? Ibanez?
3. Rotation seems like its gonna be names we know, but I cant see Montero and Syndergaard playing big roles in ’14, but ’15 is a different matter. I like the rotation David has put forth.
4. Im dumping Davis and Tejada at this point. I would go hard to sign James Loney to play 1B who will be a FA. I dont know about SS. Maybe a trade? IM not averse to giving Q a full year at this if he keeps on this year.
5. Id move Parnell right now. He wont be our closer in ’15, so why protect him? If he can bring a blue chipper at short or OF, Id take it in a NY minute.
My ’14 lineup
1. LF EY Jr
2. RF Choo
3. 3B Wright
4. 1B Loney
5. 2B Flores
6. C d’Arnaud
7. CF Lagares
8. SS Q
SP
Harvey
Niese
Wheeler
Hefner (if he finishes ’13 on present course)
Gee
RP
I like David’s idea
Great piece. I agree 110% here. The franchise, as a whole, is most certainly moving in the right direction. I’m not sure they “turned a corner,” but it seems that that phrase is open to interpretation.
The next 6-8 months is put up or shut up time for this front office (assuming ownership has been honest about finances). I’ve read that some expect Choo to get in the $15-20 million per year range. That seems insane to me, and I think the Mets would agree if that is the case. They may be better of going the trade route, but I would think that teams would be asking for top pitching prospects in any trade. Multiple top pitching prospects.
At the very least, it will be an interesting 6-8 months. Hopefully in a good way.
Re: Parnell. I would also agree that they should keep him, but you gotta at least explore it. The Brewers just got a B-level prospect for K-Rod, so I wonder what Parnell would fetch….
It’s interesting that both David and Chris see EYJr. and Choo in the starting outfield. My question is if the Mets upgrade with two new outfielders and move Murphy, would EYJr. be a 2B candidate? I can also see Flores being given a shot at 1B.
Must admit that I never thought of acquiring Loney. I’d have to think hard on that one.
Chris, good article. There are years when the off-season is more interesting than the real season.
1> Sign free agent, 30 HR OF? Yes, but the surprise is that it’s Marlon Byrd.
2> Trade for corner OF? Yes, and its part of a move of EYJ to 2B … something on the order of Josh Willingham or even Carlos Quinton. Second surprise: the really big move is for a veteran slugging 1B on the order of Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, AGonz or even Edwin Encarnacion. (Possible that they’ve already closed their eyes to the idea that EYJ can’t play defense and leave him in LF).
3>Rotation: Really it’s too early to know this question when you have three guys putting up the numbers of Gee, Hefner and Torres … any one of which is throwing like a #2 or even ace right now. If deGrom proves his mettle, you could combine one of the three with Murphy and another player to get the 1B you need.
4> Ike is done, and Satin regresses to a 770 OPS when forced to hit a lot of RHP. Tejada wins back the SS position by the end of the year, and by October we were wondering what the heck we were thinking about keeping Q as the full time SS.
5> Parnell isn’t going anywhere.
You heard it here first: The Mets bring in a great bat at 1B when Davis fails.
SO to recap?
EYJ, 2B
Tejada, SS
Wright, 3B
Pujols, 1B
Quinton, LF
Byrd, RF
D’Arnaud, C
Lagares, CF
Outbound? Gee, Murphy, Flores, Montero, Dykstra, Duda, Davis, deGrom.
Pujols? And the Angels eat how much of his contract?
That’s not a surprise JG, that’s a heart attack!
if we do get pujols, is it ok with everyone if i nickname him mo vaughn……
not a good comp at all! Mo was a tank without treads, unable to leave the batters box.
Pujols … the Angels just traded their international rights to the Mets for two prospects. My guess is that they’ll eat around $125 of the $200MM … and perhaps just take a mid level prospect or two for the relief.
Ellsbury or Choo would be such a vast improvement as to what the Mets currently have. Taking Ellsbury will cost you more but he plays center field and leads off which solves two major problems for the Mets. As for Pujois…he has three contracts with the Angels.Very complicated and heavily back loaded(30 million at age 41). I would rather see the team trade for CarGo and re-sign Byrd to play right.Platoon Ike at first with Satin.I can see Tejada reclaiming his job at shortstop.Parnell is your closer.Fix the pen and you have a playoff team that can contend.
2014 line-up
Ellsbury,cf
Young,2B
Wright,3B
Cargo,rf
Byrd,lf
Davis,1B
D’Arnaud, c
Tejada, ss
Why not Byrd? He is a solid bat and leather. Give Marlon a two year contract with incentives.
The Mets need another impact bat in a corner OF position and an upgrade in CF. Byrd should be tendered an extension and Young should become the 2B. That would allow Murphy and Flores to be trade bait. Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard are not traded but any other pitcher should be considered in order to get the impact OF and CF. Who gets traded will impact the rotation but there are enough arms now to put together a strong rotation. Q is the 2013 SS and Tejada should resurface by 2014 but the ceiling for both is average. A SS prospect like Owings would be nice. Pederson in CF would also be an upgrade and I prefer going that route. Duda/Satin over Davis at first. Davis should be traded before deadline because he most likely be non tendered.
Gad…I hope we don’t trade Syndergaard. Elllsbury brings injury risks but is an impact bat when healthy. Would the Mets lose their first round for him? I think they are hovering around having the 10th worst record still so if they fall out of the top worst records, they would lose their pick, right?
What about trading Ike for Marcel Ozuna? The Marlins have optioned him down (actually he’s on DL), but I think they brought him up too soon. He could be a great outfielder, and we could get him for someone who is a gonner anyway (yes, Ike is done…does anyone really want to pay him >3M$ for the drech we see?). We only would be required to offer him 2M and change in arb, but I wouldnt do that either.
On what level does this work for the Marlins?
Why would they take on someone making more than the min? They already have LoMo at 1st base. And why would they give up Ozuna for him.
Trades have to work both ways, i’m seeing way too many Met fans trying to get huge returns and expect others to take our garbage.
Just a thought: While I don’t know every teams top prospects, the Twins make sense as a team for Ike. Morneau is on the decline, could possibly be traded at the deadline. It seems like a match.
Looking at BA’s rankings for prospects: Eddie Rosario or Oswaldo Arcia would fit the profile of a return. Don’t know how much the Twins value these guys with Hicks and Buxton in the fold.
Arcia’s been riding the shuttle between Triple-A and the majors. He’s got a .320/.432/.612 line in 125 PA at Triple-A. If we could get him for Ike Davis that would be a fleecing.
Well they have Hicks and Buxton. Somebody is going to be the odd guy out. Seems like we could sweep in and get a guy on the “cheap”.
IM not sure Ozuna would be a huge return considering they optioned him to AA. LoMo has spent much time in LF, so thats an easy fix.
Where they optioned him doesn’t reflect the talent level of Ozuna. It just shows the Marlins are very non-traditional with their promotions and demotions. This guy was rated #75 by BA coming into this season. In comparison, Wheeler was rated #55 by BA when we traded Beltran, a far superior player.
Frankly, getting ANYONE for Ike who isn’t a reclamation project is too much. You have to also consider the fact that Ike Davis will likely be paid at least 3 million next year with only 3 more years of control and you’re asking for a young good prospect with 5-6 years of control, 3 of which they are making the min.
I hear ya. We might just as well DFA Ike.
I agree.
Here’s food for thought. Combining 2012 and 2013, Davis has a (-0.1) fWAR. That’s tied for 25th among 26 qualified first basemen. Equally bad is Eric Hosmer and the only one worse is Mark Reynolds, who gets dragged down due to his fielding.
Hosmer has a 1.6 fWAR this year so there’s no chance the Royals are doing that deal. Cleveland likes Reynolds versatility and his willingness to stand out at 3B, so they’re not likely to make the deal.
The equivalent outfielder would by Dayan Viciedo, who has a 0.0 fWAR over the ’12-’13 seasons. Next closest are Garrett Jones at 1.2 and Delmon Young at (-1.3).
To GerryGrote. Why would Arte Moreno throw away 125 million dollars? Do you know something or are you “guessing”? With a personal contract for 10 years after Pujois retires and structuring his baseball contract to be back loaded and heavily incentive laden why would the Mets be interested? The Mets would still be obligated for all those incentive bonuses which run in the millions of dollars and include 3,000 hits, any MVP, All-Star selection, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger and so on.
I’m just guessing, certainly I have no special information …
I’m sure the Mets would gladly pay a salary AND all the incentives if Pujols came to NY and continued to win SS awards.
End of the day, Angelos isn’t writing a check for $125MM (or whatever). He’s getting the chance to NOT write a check for $200MM. All said and done, I think it’s easier to put together a Duda/Davis package and get yourself back a 1B. Maybe its Trumbo, maybe its Edwin … who knows.
As much of a fan as I have been of Pujois my concern would be his production at ages 37-41. What do you do if he can’t play any more? Don’t have the luxury of being able to DH and conserve his body. He is a class act and a family man. Can you imagine how mans home runs Wright would hit with Pujois hitting behind him? I know. Wishful thinking.
Peter, I was thinking that $75MM would be a fair price for 5 years of 2012 Pujols. It makes his age 38 season meaningless.
A power bat to compliment David can be had at 1B, RF or LF. Because of what we have to move (Davis, Duda), it just seems to me we can resolve that bat at 1B much easier than a corner OF.
And to that ends, I think anyone who believes our GM will pay above fair market for Shoo simply hasn’t been paying attention. Sorry guys.
“All the talk is that the Mets are turning a corner as a franchise, with hopes that 2014 will be the year they contend once again for an October berth. This year we have seen glimpses of this with the arrival of Zack Wheeler, the emergence of Juan Lagares/Dillon Gee/Jeremy Hefner and the great season of Marlon Byrd.”
“All the talk…” by whom? The Mets earliest window is likely 2016. Later in your article you propose a rotation that includes two pitchers in Gee and Niese in their primes both with established levels of performance *solidly* below average (and with only one above average season out of seven between them), another pitcher with a history of less than stellar control and all of six starts in the majors; and a pure rookie. That’s a rotation with zero chance to propel a contender in 2014.
As for the lineup, the Mets are dead except for 3b and 2b, where they have one star and one average player. You mention Byrd, but he’s a well below average hitter for his position have a true fluke season. In 2014 the Mets have SIX holes to fill in their regular lineup. It’s just a bad joke to think they’ll be contending next year or the year after. Sorry, but if you want to be taken seriously you’ll have to talk about the payroll the team will need in two-three years and how many minor leaguers will have become real contributors to the ML club over that time, then estimate the likelihood of that happening.
Otherwise you’re just blowing smoke when you pretend the Mets have better than an Astros’ chance of making the postseason in 2014.
We’ve played the Braves even up on the last 9 games. What players do they have that are “stars” and “above average”? You’d have to be grading on a curve to give them that much better a team than the Mets.
Much closer than you think.
“Show me and I’ll have faith.
Have faith, and I’ll show you.”
I hear ya Jerry Grote, and I love the optimism. However, thats just too narrow of a window to judge the Mets by. The very same team that swept the Yankees and have drawn even against the Braves is also 3-8 against the Marlins, and about 10 games under .500 at home. The only division we have a positive record against is the NL West. What I see in the Mets, as we have seen for years, is a team that is consistently inconsistent. Many times I have called them Jeckyll and Hyde, and thats exactly how I still feel. What team takes the field? Unless Harvey is on the bump, we really dont know.
Sure the Braves continue to live on the torrid open to the season, but even still, are just walking through the season to the title. I dont see that changing.
Here is what I’ve seen pretty much every game since mid-June …
*we will show the better team on the field defensively.
*we will have the better (or at least as good) bullpen.
*we will score at least 3 runs, and probably around 5.
I no longer know who will be on the field, who will be the effective bullpen arm, or how we will score the runs. LGM.
I pretty much agree with you Jack. However, I do believe they have a better chance than the Astros. the state of play for ’14 is highly volatile, so its hard to imagine it coming together with so many unknown, and possibly new, pieces in the mix.
I see ’15 as the year the window opens for a run, depending on what SA does this winter.
Jack, I don’t disagree with you, but I do believe that the key to the Mets’ success is in the hands of Sandy A. If he can package some trades that would upgrade the infield and outfield deficiencies we might see some success before 2016. Free Agency is tricky because there appears to be a paucity of top grade talent and the Mets philosophy seems to preclude high level expenditures.