Sometimes it’s tough to tell what the outlier is.
Jeremy Hefner is coming off a recent eight-start run that raised a few eyebrows. From June 4 through the All-Star break, his stretch comprised 51 IP and a scant 10 ER – good for an ERA of 1.77. That’s an “ace”- type number. For comparison’s sake, Matt Harvey’s ERA for the year is 2.23 and that’s good enough for third among qualifying NL pitchers. Hefner’s WHIP during his hot streak was also impressive: 0.98 – essentially, less than a base runner per inning. Fans and media alike started slotting him as the #2 man, right behind Harvey in the pitching pecking order.
After the Break, however…
Hefner has had two starts since the mid-summer recess, both strikingly awful. His first start at home against the Phillies could be brushed off as a simple off night, and besides, he’s never pitched well vs. Philadelphia – as if the keen-eyed fan needed reminding. Fine. Last night (7/24) vs. the Braves was a different story altogether – more reminiscent of that 2012 Philadelphia disaster and a far, far cry from the good times we all enjoyed in June. The problem can be summed up in two words. Home. Runs.
Historically, Hefner has been plagued by the long-ball. His propensity to surrender home runs is well documented. Over the course of his time in the majors, Hefner can be counted on to give up at least one homer a game – he sports a career HR-per-nine-innings rate of 1.2. During his hot streak, though, his taters-per-9 dropped down to 0.88. Now, luckily enough, his walks-per-nine career-wise is only 2.0. But if one of those two walks comes at the wrong time, well…This goes most of the way to explaining why a pitcher with his talent has a worse-than-mediocre ERA of 4.59 for his career. But kind of talent does he have?
All these numbers raise more questions than they answer. Which guy is Jeremy Hefner? Trying to determine “true talent” is a rough game to play – the baseball equivalent of the needle-in-the-haystack. As shown above, going to the old bromide about the back of the baseball card doesn’t help. And with the oncoming glut of starting pitching the Mets will enjoy, there really isn’t a clearly defined role for him in Queens. If Jenrry Mejia impresses over the remainder of the season and Jonathon Niese can come back from his shoulder issue, it would appear that Hefner would be the odd man out of the rotation and if a guy is giving up homers at his career rates, the bullpen is no answer for him, either.
If Hefner can get back on his feet and recover even a hint of his June/early-July form, he may be enjoying a new address and a real pennant race before August ends.
Follow me on Twitter @CharlieHangley
Hefner had a below-average HR/FB rate last year in 93.2 IP and now he has an above-average rate in 114.1 IP. His career xFIP, which gives him a “normal” HR rate, is 4.07 and I think that’s who he is as a pitcher.
Since 2012, 62 pitchers have thrown a combined 170+ innings in the NL and Hefner ranks 42nd in xFIP. His ability to provide league-average type innings makes him a #3/#4 SP. The only reason to downgrade him would be if you think he will continue to give up more homers than expected. That’s certainly a possible outcome, but I’m not sure we should expect it going forward.
He’s had two bad stretches with HR:
6 HR in 8 IP early in the year
4 HR in 6.1 IP since the break
Outside of that, he’s allowed 9 HR in 100 IP, a rate consistent with what he did last year when he gave up 9 HR in 93.2 IP.
Just two bad starts. Of the 74 NL starters who have thrown at least 50 innings Heffner is #45 in ERA which makes him a #3 or #4 starter amongst his peers. Heffner is a quality back end of the rotation starter who has just had a good run. Heffner’s value is that he can allow the Mets to trade some of their pitching to fill some holes knowing that they have him as a quality 5th starter. Just two bad starts.
Doess Heffner tend to give up more runs later in the game or are they evenly disbursed between innings. In other words, is their a direct relationship to HRs allowed to number of pitches thrown?
I think he’s been regularly bombed pretty early, real early, like in innings 1-3.
I think Hef is a back end guy or long relief. Great for the spot start. His run recently has been delightful, but the bigger picture shows who he is, an inconsistent pitcher with flashes of great and a propensity to pitch batting practice. On a team making a run, I wouldn’t want him taking the ball in a critical game 5. On a team like the present Mets he gets the starts, but I think I’d rather see him in long relief.
[…] Wright, Marlon Byrd and Bobby Parnell. One of the shakier protagonists was starter Jeremy Hefner, he of four hits and five walks in just over five innings. Hefner’s WHIP for this game would never be […]