On a forum someone made the suggestion that the Mets’ first-round pick in 2013, Dominic Smith, would speed through the farm system and could be starting for the team in 2015. This is, in short, not going to happen… sorry. Yet, it does give us a reason to look at the typical progression through the minors.
Here is a list of Median Ages by level:
- AAA: 26
- AA: 24
- A+: 23
- A (Full Season): 22
- A (Short Season): 21
- R: 19
- DSL: 18
Now let’s take a look at Smith:
Dominic Smith
Bats: Left, Throws: Left
Height: 6′ 0″, Weight: 185 lb.
Born: June 15, 1995 (Age 18)
High School: Serra HS (Gardena, CA)
Currently Playing for: GCL Mets
This puts Smith roughly where 99.9% of high school draft picks go. He’s assigned to a rookie league club where he will learn about what it is to be a professional athlete. Let’s take a peek at a potential timeline:
- 2013: R2, GCL (18)
- 2014: R1, APP/A-, NYP (19)
- 2015: A, SAL (20)
- 2016: A+ (21)
- 2017: AA/AAA (22)
- 2018: MLB (23)
This assumes that Smith doesn’t have any injury setbacks and also that he doesn’t have any moments in the minors where he looks to be heads and tails above the competition. For instance, he could go through both Savannah and Port St. Lucie in 2015 if he hits well in both leagues and shave a year off his time table, but he might also suffer a season-ending injury and be forced to repeat a level. On top of all of this he needs to perform.
Thus far, Smith has a .243/.337/.392 line in the GCL. This is fine, but it isn’t the type of performance that accelerates a player’s timeline. If he wanted to do that, he’d need to have an OPS above .900 or at least a sustained OPS in the .800 range.
The aberration to this rule is Bryce Harper.
Harper was selected 1st overall in the 2010 draft and began his minor league career in 2011 playing for Hagerstown in the SAL. Harper then skipped A+ baseball and proceeded to AA before spending 21 games in AAA in 2012 and making it to the majors. Why is Harper different? Look at his stats from Hagerstown:
- .318/.423/.554
- 17 Doubles
- 14 Homers
- 19 Stolen Bases
- 44 Walks and 61 Strikeouts in 72 Games
All of this at the age of 18 in a league where the average player was four years older than him. He’s not the rule, he’s the exception. It’s fine to be excited about Smith, but there is a reason that Smith was drafted 11th overall and Harper went 1st.
It is normal, not exceptional, for a position player drafted in the top 15 to be in the major leagues in 2 years and most make it in 3.
As I look back at the 2009 and 2010 drafts, what strikes me is how unusual it is to draft a position player at the top of the draft. From 2008 to 2011 you have
2011 Bubba Starling
2011 Francisco Lindor
2011 Javier Baez
2011 Brandon Nimmo
two out these will be in the major leagues next year; one is washing out, the other is a Met.
2010 Harper
2010 Manny Machado
2010 Jake Skole
Two of these are superstars already. I’m leaving out Christian Yelich
2009 Donovan Tate
No other candidates.
2008 Eric Hosmer
2008 Aaron Hicks
Hosmer made it to the bigs in two years.
Bottom line is that it is simply unusual to come up with Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. It’s not unusual at all for high schoolers to make it the bigs before they can legally drink.
Mets don’t get a pass on Dominic Smith. His performance already lags other players from his draft and as a top 15 pick it would certainly be reasonable to see him at Citi by 2016. If it takes him until he is 24, he will be widely considered a wasted pick.