Earlier today, David Groveman wrote a piece on Dominic Smith and the typical progression of players through the minors. The purpose was to advise caution and not expect Smith to come up and be a contributor anytime soon. It’s always a good idea to advise caution with prospects. However, I believe that guys who make the majors and contribute in any meaningful way will advance at a much quicker rate and as fans we should be disappointed if a first-round pick follows what is considered the typical progression.
According to Matt Eddy of Baseball America, “roughly one in six” of drafted players will make the majors. A couple of days ago, Eddy published a study of drafts from 1987 to 2008 to come up with his numbers. He picked 1987 because it was the first year of only one phase, or what we have currently. He picked 2008 to allow five full years for players to advance through the farm system.
He found that of the 19,121 players signed in this time period, 3,288 made the majors, or 17.2%. Furthermore, there’s a direct correlation between the round a player is drafted and the chances to make the majors. A first-round pick from this study made the majors 73% of the time. A supplemental first-round pick makes the majors 52.3% of the time. A second-round pick made the majors 49.4% of the time.
For the Mets, 14 first-round picks in this period made the majors while nine did not. Their 61% success ratio is well beneath the overall average.
Smith was drafted out of high school. The most recent high school player taken by the Mets in the first round to make the majors was Lastings Milledge. He was the 12th overall pick of the 2003 Draft and here was his progression through the minors:
03 – APPY
04 – SAL/FSL
05 – FSL/EAST
06 – INT/MLB
The previous year the Mets took Scott Kazmir 15th overall and this was his progression:
02 – NYP
03 – SAL/FSL
04 – FSL/EAST/SOU/MLB
The next high school player drafted by the Mets on the first round to make the majors was Terrence Long, who was picked 20th in 1994. Here’s his progression:
94 – APPY
95 – NYP/SAL
96 – SAL
97 – FSL
98 – EAST
99 – INT/PCL/MLB
Next up is Preston Wilson, selected ninth in 1992. Here’s his progression:
92 – Did not play (likely signed too late)
93 – APPY/NYP
94 – SAL
95 – SAL
96 – FSL
97 – FSL/EAST
98 – INT/MLB
Meanwhile, the Mets also picked several high school products in this span who did not reach the majors. Each year is separated by a comma, while a “/” indicates more than one level in a given year.
1997 – Geoff Goetz (6th) – GULF, SAL/MID, MID, FSL/EAST, EAST, EAST, FSL/EAST
1995 – Ryan Jaroncyk (18th) – GULF/NYP, APPY, SAL, where he retired after 29 games
1993 – Kirk Presley (8th) – NYP/FSL, SAL, NYP, SAL, SAL – career derailed by arm injuries
1991 – Al Shirley (18th)– GULF, APPY, APPY/SAL, SAL, GULF/FSL, CARO, TEX, TEX
If we go a couple of years outside Eddy’s study, we find the Mets took more high school players on the first round. Here are their progressions:
1986 – Lee May (21st) – APPY, APPY, NYP, NYP/SAL, FSL, EAST/INT, INT, SOU
1985 – Gregg Jefferies (20th) – APPY/SAL, CARO/SAL/TEX, TEX/MLB
1984 – Shawn Abner (1st) – APPY/NYP, CARO, TEX, PCL/MLB
1983 – Eddie Williams (4th) – NYP, SAL/FSL, MID, EAST/MLB
1983 – Stan Jefferson (20th) – NYP, CARO, TEX, INT/MLB
That’s the last 13 high school players the Mets have drafted on the first round since 2008. Eight made the majors and five did not. Of the eight that did make the majors, not one played two full years exclusively at the GULF/APPY/NYP levels. The Mets have a definite hierarchy among these clubs but their top draft picks need to fly through this short-season level if they are going to make it to the majors.
Of the five high school first-rounders who didn’t make the majors, three of them (Jaroncyk, Shirley, May) played two full years exclusively at the short-season level. It’s why it was so disappointing to see the Mets start Gavin Cecchini in the NYP this year. It would have been much more preferable to see Cecchini start the year in the SAL and then if he was struggling, move down to the NYP once the short-season league started, much like Long did 18 years ago.
The bottom line is I want to see Smith start next year in the SAL. While his overall numbers look disappointing, we see he got off to a horrible start and has been raking since. In June, Smith had a .430 OPS. But here in July he has a .295/.400/.475 line in 75 PA. It would be nice to see a touch more power, but that’s really a nitpick.
Ideally we would have a much bigger sample from which to draw conclusions. If we looked at all the teams in baseball over the length of Eddy’s study, I am positive we would find first-round high school draft picks who made the majors after playing two full years in short-season ball. Yet, I’m equally convinced that the vast majority of the guys who went on to careers in the majors spent just one year in short-season ball.
Comparing a small sample size of Mets prospects who graduated to the majors and saying that that’s the formula for success is nonsensical. If you wanted to make a meaningful survey, you should examine first-round picks for ALL teams in MLB. The Mets also had a habit of rushing prospects under the last front office. The current regime has been a lot more careful with promotions and I’m betting that Dominic Smith plays in Brooklyn next year unless he just tears up the GCL this year. He’ll still only be 18 when the SAL starts next spring. There’s no reason to rush him and put him in the hitters’ desert that is Historic Grayson Stadium until he’s proven himself at the lower levels.
Yes, I already addressed the small sample size and I gave my opinion on what would happen if we looked deeper. It’s the last paragraph.
In the 2005 Draft, there were 10 HS players taken in the first round. Nine have played in the majors — Upton, Maybin, McCutchen, Bruce, Snyder, Volstad, Henry, Thompson and Rasums. Not one of those guys played two full seasons in short-season ball.
There was one player who did not make the majors – Mark Pawelek. He played two full seasons in short-season leagues.
I’m sure some will think I picked this year on purpose but I assure you it was random. I’m sure that there are many years that do not work out this perfectly. But I stand by my assertion in the article that the vast majority of HS first-round picks that reach the majors do not spend a lot of time in short-season leagues.
In the 2006 Draft, there were 13 HS players taken on the first round. Seven made the majors and six of them (Kershaw, Snider, Marerro, Jeffress, Parmalee, Conger) did not repeat short-season leagues.
The seventh was Kyle Drabek. He debuted in the GULF and the following year went to a full-season league, where he got hurt and needed TJ surgery. When he came back from surgery he pitched in short-season ball
In the 2007 Draft, there were 17 HS players taken in the first round. Of those, 13 made the majors and 12 of them (Moustakas, Parker, Bumgarner, Aumont, Dominguez, Heyward, Mesoraco, Beaven, Kozma, Withrow, Porcello, Revere) did not repeat short-season leagues.
But we finally have one who did. Josh Vitters spent two years in short-season leagues.
So, in the 2005-2007 Drafts, we have 29 high school players taken on the first round who reached the majors. Of those 29 only one spent two full years in short-season leagues without also playing in a full-season league (Vitters did play five games in Lo-A).
My point is not that everyone who plays full-season ball the year after they drafted will play in the majors. Rather, if you have a first-round HS pick who needs a second full year of short-season ball — chances are against him making any kind of impact in the majors.
Interesting stuff Brian. This is definitely something I hope more research is done, as i’m really intrigued by this stuff.
One thing i’d like to note is that effect that international players on the draft and the chance of draftees making it to the major leagues. Off the top of my head, i’m positive that there are more Asian players than in 1980s and 90s, but i’m not sure about Latin players.
Brian,
This article was really a good piece of work. I realize that time and space prohibit you from delving further and studying the success/failure of each front office. Is there a difference between say a Cashman draft history as opposed to say an Amaro or some other GM?
Thanks Norm
I like doing these kinds of pieces – my only concern is that “general” research may not be interesting on a Mets-themed blog.
As for your question, I don’t think drafting is one of Cashman’s strong points. The people in St. Louis should get a lot of credit, although I think a lot of them were hired in Houston. It will be curious to see if the Astros start cranking out better drafts now.
Good stuff. Truly special players tend to move very quickly. I agree it is a bad sign when a first round pick needs two years in short season ball.
Nimmo and Cecchini are off to disappointing starts. Next year will tell whether or not, they are top prospects or run of the mill prospects. Your 1st rounds have higher exceptions and to make a impact.
Both players have been hurt so we have to factor that into things.
Plus, SAV is not the greatest hitter’s park and Nimmo has an .837 road OPS compared to a .587 home mark. In its proper context, his season is not a huge disappointment. We’ll see if his power develops when he moves to the FSL and a better home park for hitting.
One factor to be considered is that Dominic Smith was a Cavalier and went to Serra High School in Gardena, California. That said, Serra has been turning-out top quality athletes for several years. It was just four years ago that Robert Woods left Serra for USC and only three years for Marquis Lee. Cavaliers never give-up in anything and give it there all. That is their training and mind set. Keep an eye on Dominic…there’s a lot more to this story. Serra grad. 1970